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对这一现象的看法五花八门,从疯狂的好到简直是疯狂。这听起来像是一家价值投资者公司的异端邪说,但这种资本配置策略是完全理性的,MSTR 股东支持更多的资本配置策略是正确的。

MicroStrategy (MSTR) and bitcoin have been making headlines lately, and for good reason. After a more than 500% gain in its shares this year, MSTR has been selling stock and convertible securities to fund purchases of bitcoin, which recently topped $100,000 for the first time. And viewpoints on this phenomenon are all over the map, ranging from crazy good to just plain crazy.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) 和比特币最近成为头条新闻,这是有充分理由的。今年股价上涨超过 500% 后,MSTR 一直在出售股票和可转换证券,为购买比特币提供资金,最近比特币价格首次突破 10 万美元。对这一现象的看法五花八门,从疯狂的好到简直是疯狂。
This may sound like heresy coming from a firm of value investors, but this capital allocation strategy is entirely rational, and MSTR shareholders are right to root for more. Yep, you heard me correctly. Share issuances can be useful when done properly.
这听起来像是一家价值投资者公司的异端邪说,但这种资本配置策略是完全理性的,MSTR 股东支持更多的资本配置策略是正确的。是的,你没听错。如果做得正确,股票发行会很有用。
We are value investors at Harris | Oakmark, so we see far more share repurchase than issuance from the companies we own, but one is not necessarily better than the other. Share repurchases and issuances are two sides of the same coin, if you will, and both can be done rationally.
我们是哈里斯的价值投资者 | Oakmark,因此我们看到我们所拥有的公司回购的股票远远多于发行的股票,但其中一个不一定比另一个更好。如果愿意的话,股票回购和发行是同一枚硬币的两面,两者都可以理性地进行。
MSTR’s primary asset is its bitcoin position, which as of December 1, 2024, totaled 402,100. At a then price of $96,400, this stake has a value of $38.8B or $143.43 per fully diluted share. MSTR’s share price before the open on December 2, 2024 was $383.25, which put the premium to bitcoin at over two times.
MSTR 的主要资产是比特币头寸,截至 2024 年 12 月 1 日,比特币头寸总计 402,100 枚。按当时的价格 96,400 美元计算,该股份的价值为 38.8B 美元,即每股完全稀释后的股票价值 143.43 美元。 2024 年 12 月 2 日开盘前,MSTR 的股价为 383.25 美元,较比特币溢价两倍多。
I want to emphasize: we do not have an opinion on the value of bitcoin or MSTR, but we do appreciate the concept of using a currency (MSTR stock) valued at twice the underlying asset value (bitcoin) to buy more of that very asset at market prices. Issuing stock in this way reduces the premium MSTR shareholders are paying to own bitcoin. This is a good thing, though the benefit is ultimately limited to minimizing the premium at which MSTR shares trade relative to its bitcoin holdings.
我想强调的是:我们对比特币或 MSTR 的价值没有意见,但我们确实欣赏使用价值两倍于基础资产价值(比特币)的货币(MSTR 股票)来购买更多该资产的概念按市场价格。以这种方式发行股票降低了 MSTR 股东为拥有比特币而支付的溢价。这是一件好事,尽管好处最终仅限于最大限度地降低 MSTR 股票相对于其持有的比特币交易的溢价。
In the same way, rational issuers of stock are using an attractive currency relative to what they are buying with the proceeds. This could include issuing overvalued stock to buy fairly valued assets or issuing undervalued stock to buy a more significantly undervalued asset.
同样,理性的股票发行人会使用相对于他们用收益购买的货币有吸引力的货币。这可能包括发行被高估的股票来购买公平估值的资产,或发行被低估的股票来购买被严重低估的资产。
With share repurchase, a company buys its stock with cash. Rational repurchasers view cash as an attractive currency to buy in their stock because the shares are selling at a discount to fair value. That discount widens even more when shares are repurchased and will continue to widen if share repurchases continue at a discount to fair value. Think of this as an intelligent and relatively low risk way to leverage future returns to owners who patiently wait for the price-value gap to close.
通过股票回购,公司用现金购买其股票。理性回购者将现金视为购买股票的有吸引力的货币,因为股票的售价低于公允价值。当股票被回购时,这种折价会进一步扩大,并且如果股票回购继续以公允价值的折价进行,这种折价将继续扩大。将此视为一种明智且风险相对较低的方式,可以为耐心等待价格与价值差距缩小的业主提供未来回报。
We are value investors at Harris | Oakmark, which means we own companies we believe to be selling below their true fair value. The undervalued share prices make using stock for currency quite expensive. As a result, we see far more share repurchase than issuance from the companies we own.
我们是哈里斯的价值投资者 | Oakmark,这意味着我们拥有我们认为其出售价格低于其真实公允价值的公司。被低估的股价使得用股票换取货币变得相当昂贵。因此,我们看到我们所拥有的公司回购的股票远远多于发行的股票。
For instance, 88% of the companies held in our U.S. large-cap value strategies* have repurchased stock over the last 12 months. On a weighted basis, our holdings have bought back nearly 4% of their market cap over the last 12 months, approximately twice the rate of the weighted S&P 500. On average, our top 10 repurchasers have bought back just over 10% of their shares over the last 12 months and our largest single repurchaser, General Motors (GM), has bought back over 24% of its average market cap. This is unsurprising to us. We look to partner with rational, shareholder-friendly management teams of undervalued companies. Experiencing twice the rate of repurchase of the broader index is evidence that we are on the right track.
例如,在我们的美国大盘价值策略*中持有的公司中有 88% 在过去 12 个月内回购了股票。在加权基础上,我们的持股在过去 12 个月里回购了近 4% 的市值,大约是加权标准普尔 500 指数的两倍。平均而言,我们的前 10 名回购者回购了略高于 10% 的股票在过去 12 个月中,我们最大的单一回购方通用汽车 (GM) 回购了其平均市值的 24% 以上。这对我们来说并不奇怪。我们希望与价值被低估的公司的理性、对股东友好的管理团队合作。回购率是更广泛指数的两倍,这证明我们走在正确的轨道上。
Hopefully when you read of companies repurchasing or issuing stock going forward, you will remember they are two sides of the same coin. Consider the difference between the value of the currency used and the asset purchased before casting judgment because this ultimately determines the impact on the value of your investment.
希望当您读到公司未来回购或发行股票时,您会记住它们是同一枚硬币的两面。在做出判断之前,请考虑所使用的货币的价值与购买的资产之间的差异,因为这最终决定了对您的投资价值的影响。
*As of December 9, 2024. Applies to U.S. retail mutual funds and institutional strategies.
*截至 2024 年 12 月 9 日。适用于美国零售共同基金和机构策略。
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