MSTR 股票、比特幣國庫券和收益策略：深入探討

分析 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的比特幣金庫策略、股票表現以及投資者的收益（或缺乏）。

MSTR Stock, Bitcoin Treasury, and Gains Strategy: A Deep Dive

MSTR 股票、比特幣國庫券和收益策略：深入探討

MicroStrategy (MSTR), now Strategy Inc., has become synonymous with Bitcoin. But how is its Bitcoin treasury impacting its stock and what's the real gains strategy? Let's break it down.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)，現為 Strategy Inc.，已成為比特幣的代名詞。但其比特幣金庫如何影響其股票以及真正的收益策略是什麼？讓我們來分解一下。

Strategy Inc.'s Bitcoin Bet: A Quick Recap

Strategy Inc. 的比特幣押注：快速回顧

Strategy Inc. continues to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin. Most recently, they added 168 BTC between October 13 and 19, bringing their total holdings to a staggering 640,418 BTC. They're funding these purchases through equity offerings, a strategy that's drawing both praise and scrutiny.

Strategy Inc.繼續積極積累比特幣。最近，他們在 10 月 13 日至 19 日期間增持了 168 BTC，使總持有量達到驚人的 640,418 BTC。他們通過股票發行為這些收購提供資金，這一策略既受到讚揚，也受到密切關注。

The Weakening Multiple: Is MSTR Just a Bitcoin Proxy?

倍數疲軟：MSTR 只是比特幣代理嗎？

Here's where things get interesting. MSTR's multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) has plummeted. As of October 2025, it's hovering around 1.21x, the lowest in 19 months. This means the stock is valued at just a 21% premium over its Bitcoin holdings. Back in November 2024, that premium was over 200%! Ouch.

這就是事情變得有趣的地方。 MSTR 的市盈率與淨資產值 (mNAV) 大幅下降。截至 2025 年 10 月，其徘徊在 1.21 倍左右，為 19 個月以來的最低水平。這意味著該股票的估值僅比其持有的比特幣溢價 21%。早在 2024 年 11 月，溢價就超過 200%！哎喲。

Essentially, investors are paying less and less for the non-Bitcoin part of the company. Some analysts suggest MSTR is now essentially a Bitcoin proxy, meaning its stock price will closely mirror Bitcoin's movements. Year-to-date Bitcoin is up 31% while MSTR shares are +13.3%.

從本質上講，投資者為公司的非比特幣部分支付的費用越來越少。一些分析師表示，MSTR 現在本質上是比特幣的代理，這意味著其股價將密切反映比特幣的走勢。今年迄今為止，比特幣上漲了 31%，而 MSTR 股價則上漲了 13.3%。

Dilution and Insider Sales: Red Flags?

稀釋和內幕銷售：危險信號？

The company's funding strategy involves issuing new capital, which dilutes existing shareholders. Company insiders, including founder Michael Saylor, have been selling shares. This combination of dilution and insider exits isn't exactly a confidence booster for investors.

該公司的融資策略涉及發行新資本，這會稀釋現有股東的股權。公司內部人士，包括創始人邁克爾·塞勒(Michael Saylor)，一直在出售股票。稀釋和內部退出的結合併不能真正增強投資者的信心。

The Gains Strategy: Where's the Alpha?

收益策略：阿爾法在哪裡？

MSTR's reported Bitcoin yield for 2025 is 25.9%, roughly in line with Bitcoin’s own gain over that period. The core software business is relatively small, so the company's valuation is heavily reliant on its Bitcoin treasury.

MSTR 報告的 2025 年比特幣收益率為 25.9%，大致與比特幣同期的漲幅一致。核心軟件業務規模相對較小，因此該公司的估值嚴重依賴其比特幣金庫。

With the premium on MSTR stock shrinking, the gains strategy has become almost entirely dependent on Bitcoin's price appreciation. Investors might be better off simply buying Bitcoin directly.

隨著 MSTR 股票的溢價縮小，收益策略幾乎完全依賴於比特幣的價格升值。投資者最好直接購買比特幣。

My Take: A Risky, Albeit Bold, Play

我的看法：冒險但大膽的玩法

Strategy Inc.'s all-in bet on Bitcoin is undeniably bold. But is it a sound gains strategy for investors? The weakening mNAV suggests the market is becoming increasingly skeptical. While Bitcoin's upside potential remains, MSTR's stock now offers minimal extra cushion compared to direct Bitcoin ownership. It feels like the market saying,

Strategy Inc. 對比特幣的全力押注無疑是大膽的。但這對投資者來說是一個合理的收益策略嗎？ mNAV 的疲軟表明市場變得越來越懷疑。儘管比特幣的上漲潛力仍然存在，但與直接持有比特幣相比，MSTR 的股票目前提供的額外緩衝微乎其微。感覺就像市場上說的，