MSTR Stock, Bitcoin Treasury, and Gains Strategy: A Deep Dive

Analyzing MicroStrategy's (MSTR) Bitcoin treasury strategy, stock performance, and the gains (or lack thereof) for investors.

MSTR Stock, Bitcoin Treasury, and Gains Strategy: A Deep Dive

MicroStrategy (MSTR), now Strategy Inc., has become synonymous with Bitcoin. But how is its Bitcoin treasury impacting its stock and what's the real gains strategy? Let's break it down.

Strategy Inc.'s Bitcoin Bet: A Quick Recap

Strategy Inc. continues to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin. Most recently, they added 168 BTC between October 13 and 19, bringing their total holdings to a staggering 640,418 BTC. They're funding these purchases through equity offerings, a strategy that's drawing both praise and scrutiny.

The Weakening Multiple: Is MSTR Just a Bitcoin Proxy?

Here's where things get interesting. MSTR's multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) has plummeted. As of October 2025, it's hovering around 1.21x, the lowest in 19 months. This means the stock is valued at just a 21% premium over its Bitcoin holdings. Back in November 2024, that premium was over 200%! Ouch.

Essentially, investors are paying less and less for the non-Bitcoin part of the company. Some analysts suggest MSTR is now essentially a Bitcoin proxy, meaning its stock price will closely mirror Bitcoin's movements. Year-to-date Bitcoin is up 31% while MSTR shares are +13.3%.

Dilution and Insider Sales: Red Flags?

The company's funding strategy involves issuing new capital, which dilutes existing shareholders. Company insiders, including founder Michael Saylor, have been selling shares. This combination of dilution and insider exits isn't exactly a confidence booster for investors.

The Gains Strategy: Where's the Alpha?

MSTR's reported Bitcoin yield for 2025 is 25.9%, roughly in line with Bitcoin’s own gain over that period. The core software business is relatively small, so the company's valuation is heavily reliant on its Bitcoin treasury.

With the premium on MSTR stock shrinking, the gains strategy has become almost entirely dependent on Bitcoin's price appreciation. Investors might be better off simply buying Bitcoin directly.

My Take: A Risky, Albeit Bold, Play

Strategy Inc.'s all-in bet on Bitcoin is undeniably bold. But is it a sound gains strategy for investors? The weakening mNAV suggests the market is becoming increasingly skeptical. While Bitcoin's upside potential remains, MSTR's stock now offers minimal extra cushion compared to direct Bitcoin ownership. It feels like the market saying,