MSTR 股票、比特币国库券和收益策略：深入探讨

分析 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的比特币金库策略、股票表现以及投资者的收益（或缺乏）。

MSTR Stock, Bitcoin Treasury, and Gains Strategy: A Deep Dive

MSTR 股票、比特币国库券和收益策略：深入探讨

MicroStrategy (MSTR), now Strategy Inc., has become synonymous with Bitcoin. But how is its Bitcoin treasury impacting its stock and what's the real gains strategy? Let's break it down.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)，现为 Strategy Inc.，已成为比特币的代名词。但其比特币金库如何影响其股票以及真正的收益策略是什么？让我们来分解一下。

Strategy Inc.'s Bitcoin Bet: A Quick Recap

Strategy Inc. 的比特币押注：快速回顾

Strategy Inc. continues to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin. Most recently, they added 168 BTC between October 13 and 19, bringing their total holdings to a staggering 640,418 BTC. They're funding these purchases through equity offerings, a strategy that's drawing both praise and scrutiny.

Strategy Inc.继续积极积累比特币。最近，他们在 10 月 13 日至 19 日期间增持了 168 BTC，使总持有量达到惊人的 640,418 BTC。他们通过股票发行为这些收购提供资金，这一策略既受到赞扬，也受到密切关注。

The Weakening Multiple: Is MSTR Just a Bitcoin Proxy?

倍数疲软：MSTR 只是比特币代理吗？

Here's where things get interesting. MSTR's multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) has plummeted. As of October 2025, it's hovering around 1.21x, the lowest in 19 months. This means the stock is valued at just a 21% premium over its Bitcoin holdings. Back in November 2024, that premium was over 200%! Ouch.

这就是事情变得有趣的地方。 MSTR 的市盈率与净资产值 (mNAV) 大幅下降。截至 2025 年 10 月，其徘徊在 1.21 倍左右，为 19 个月以来的最低水平。这意味着该股票的估值仅比其持有的比特币溢价 21%。早在 2024 年 11 月，溢价就超过 200%！哎哟。

Essentially, investors are paying less and less for the non-Bitcoin part of the company. Some analysts suggest MSTR is now essentially a Bitcoin proxy, meaning its stock price will closely mirror Bitcoin's movements. Year-to-date Bitcoin is up 31% while MSTR shares are +13.3%.

从本质上讲，投资者为公司的非比特币部分支付的费用越来越少。一些分析师认为，MSTR 现在本质上是比特币的代理，这意味着其股价将密切反映比特币的走势。今年迄今为止，比特币上涨了 31%，而 MSTR 股价则上涨了 13.3%。

Dilution and Insider Sales: Red Flags?

稀释和内幕销售：危险信号？

The company's funding strategy involves issuing new capital, which dilutes existing shareholders. Company insiders, including founder Michael Saylor, have been selling shares. This combination of dilution and insider exits isn't exactly a confidence booster for investors.

该公司的融资策略涉及发行新资本，这会稀释现有股东的股权。公司内部人士，包括创始人迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)，一直在出售股票。稀释和内部退出的结合并不能真正增强投资者的信心。

The Gains Strategy: Where's the Alpha?

收益策略：阿尔法在哪里？

MSTR's reported Bitcoin yield for 2025 is 25.9%, roughly in line with Bitcoin’s own gain over that period. The core software business is relatively small, so the company's valuation is heavily reliant on its Bitcoin treasury.

MSTR 报告的 2025 年比特币收益率为 25.9%，大致与比特币同期的涨幅一致。核心软件业务规模相对较小，因此该公司的估值严重依赖其比特币金库。

With the premium on MSTR stock shrinking, the gains strategy has become almost entirely dependent on Bitcoin's price appreciation. Investors might be better off simply buying Bitcoin directly.

随着 MSTR 股票的溢价缩小，收益策略几乎完全依赖于比特币的价格升值。投资者最好直接购买比特币。

My Take: A Risky, Albeit Bold, Play

我的看法：冒险但大胆的玩法

Strategy Inc.'s all-in bet on Bitcoin is undeniably bold. But is it a sound gains strategy for investors? The weakening mNAV suggests the market is becoming increasingly skeptical. While Bitcoin's upside potential remains, MSTR's stock now offers minimal extra cushion compared to direct Bitcoin ownership. It feels like the market saying,

Strategy Inc. 对比特币的全力押注无疑是大胆的。但这对投资者来说是一个合理的收益策略吗？ mNAV 的疲软表明市场变得越来越怀疑。尽管比特币的上涨潜力仍然存在，但与直接持有比特币相比，MSTR 的股票目前提供的额外缓冲微乎其微。感觉就像市场上说的，