MKR/天空的表現將勝過大多數加密資產

在幾個月前我的MKR/天空報告中，我建議恢復回購可以勝過大多數加密資產

Author: Taiki Maeda

作者：Taiki Maeda

Compiled by: TechFlow

編譯者：TechFlow

In my MKR/SKY report a few months ago, I suggested that the resumption of buybacks would allow it to outperform most crypto assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Since the buyback was announced on February 20:

在幾個月前我的MKR/天空報告中，我建議恢復回購可以使其在風險調整的基礎上優於大多數加密資產。自從2月20日宣布回購以來：

In this update, I will discuss three reasons why I think this trend will continue:

在此更新中，我將討論我認為這種趨勢將繼續的三個原因：

Introducing the SKY staking mechanism

介紹天空佔有機制

Currently, MKR/SKY is a token that uses all protocol revenue to buy back tokens. At the current buyback rate, the protocol buys back about $15 million per month ($500,000 per day), which is equivalent to buying back about 1% of the circulating supply per month (the highest proportion among all crypto projects).

目前，MKR/Sky是一個使用所有協議收入來回購令牌的代幣。該協議以當前的回購率購買了約1500萬美元（每天500,000美元），這相當於收回每月循環供應量的約1％（所有加密項目中最高的比例）。

On April 30, Rune published a proposal on the forum to launch the SKY staking mechanism. According to the proposal, 50% of the protocol revenue will be distributed to SKY stakers, paid in USDS. In other words, about $250,000 will be used for repurchase every day, and $250,000 will be distributed to stakers.

4月30日，符文在論壇上發表了一項提案，以推出天空堆放機制。根據該提案，協議收入的50％將分配給Sky Stakers，以USDS支付。換句話說，每天將大約25萬美元用於回購，250,000美元將分配給Stakers。

Assuming 33% of SKY supply is staked, stakers can expect to receive a staking yield of 7-8%.

假設將33％的天空供應放在儲存中，Stakers可以預計將獲得7-8％的股產收益率。

Forced SKY Token Migration

強迫天使令牌遷移

In the same update, it was also mentioned that a mandatory migration from MKR to SKY would take place:

在同一更新中，還提到將發生從MKR到天空的強制性遷移：

Since MKR is one of the earliest ERC20 tokens (launched in 2017), there are bound to be some tokens that are permanently lost. This could be due to lost private keys, lost wallets, or death of the holder. Through on-chain data analysis, I found some "sleeping MKR tokens" that will inevitably be destroyed from the supply.

由於MKR是最早的ERC20代幣之一（於2017年推出），因此肯定會有一些永久丟失的令牌。這可能是由於失去的私鑰，丟失的錢包或持有人死亡。通過鏈上數據分析，我發現一些“睡眠MKR令牌”將不可避免地從供應中銷毀。

I based this on reasonable assumptions, such as: "If there are 23,349 MKR tokens that have not been moved in the past 4-5 years, I can assume that about 90% of them are permanently lost, i.e. destroyed." Based on these assumptions, I expect that about 100,000 MKR will be destroyed due to migration (about 11.4% of the circulating supply). By referring to other examples of lost tokens (such as Aragon DAO), I think this is a conservative estimate.

我基於合理的假設，例如：“如果有23,349 MKR令牌在過去的4 - 5年中沒有被移動，我可以假設其中約有90％的人永久丟失了，即銷毀了。”基於這些假設，我預計由於遷移（約佔循環供應量的11.4％），約有100,000 MKR將被破壞。通過指代其他令牌丟失的例子（例如Aragon Dao），我認為這是保守的估計。

Take the Aragon DAO token ($ANT) in 2023, which was trading below the treasury value. “Treasury raiders” or RFVooors purchased tokens at a price below the net asset value (NAV) and demanded that the treasury be redeemed for a profit. This operation was successful, and a migration process of ANT tokens to new tokens was initiated to redeem the treasury value. During this process, approximately 27% of the tokens were not migrated, which can be inferred to be permanently lost.

以2023年的Aragon Dao代幣（$ ANT）為例，該代幣的交易低於國庫價值。 “財政突襲者”或RFVOOORS以低於淨資產價值（NAV）的價格購買了代幣，並要求將財政部兌換為利潤。這項操作是成功的，並且啟動了螞蟻代幣到新令牌的遷移過程，以兌現財政價值。在此過程中，大約27％的令牌未遷移，可以推斷出永久丟失。

Therefore, I expect that 10-20% of MKR will be destroyed in the next few months or years, which will support the token price. In addition, this forced migration may prompt more centralized exchanges (CEX) to list SKY, which will bring additional benefits.

因此，我預計將在未來幾個月或幾年內將10-20％的MKR銷毀，這將支持令牌價格。此外，這種強制遷移可能會促使更多集中的交易所（CEX）列出天空，這將帶來額外的好處。

SPK Token Launch

SPK令牌發布

Spark is a project that combines a lending market with on-chain asset management, and with almost no incentives, has achieved $40 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2023. They are able to borrow stablecoins for SKY at subsidized rates, allocating capital on-chain.

Spark是一個將貸款市場與鍊鍊資產管理相結合的項目，幾乎沒有激勵措施，在2023年第一季度獲得了4000萬美元的收入。他們能夠以補貼的價格借用Sky的Stablecoins，從而分配了資本。

SPK will be a "fair launch/mining" token that users can only mine by staking USDS or SKY (the specific economic model can be found in the relevant documents). In the first two years of token issuance, 50% of $SPK incentives will be allocated. If the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is assumed to be $500 million, $250 million of the value will be allocated to SKY/USDS stakers. This not only provides staking income for the native token, but also promotes the growth of USDS, which will further drive more buybacks in the future.

SPK將是一個“公平的發布/採礦”令牌，用戶只能通過存放USD或天空來挖掘（可以在相關文檔中找到特定的經濟模型）。在令牌發行的前兩年中，將分配$ SPK激勵措施的50％。如果假定完全稀釋的估值（FDV）為5億美元，則為2.5億美元的價值將分配給Sky/USDS Stakers。這不僅為本地代幣提供了存放收入，而且還促進了USD的增長，這將在未來進一步推動更多回購。

In addition, there are other subDAOs or "star" projects coming online soon (such as Solana Star, RWA Star, etc.), and the launch of these new projects will further support the repurchase plan.

此外，很快還有其他SubDaos或“星”項目（例如Solana Star，RWA Star等），這些新項目的啟動將進一步支持回購計劃。

Stablecoin Bill

The GENIUS ACT is expected to be signed by Trump in July or August. Although the bill is primarily targeted at centralized stablecoin issuers (and therefore has little impact on decentralized issuers), this policy narrative could provide a positive market impetus for MKR/SKY. Industry experts predict that the bill is expected to be passed in July or August.

預計特朗普將在7月或8月簽署《天才法》。儘管該法案主要針對集中的Stablecoin發行人（因此對分散的發行人的影響很小），但該政策敘述可以為MKR/SKY提供積極的市場動力。行業專家預測，該法案將在7月或8月通過。