MKR/天空的表现将胜过大多数加密资产

在几个月前我的MKR/天空报告中，我建议恢复回购可以胜过大多数加密资产

Author: Taiki Maeda

作者：Taiki Maeda

Compiled by: TechFlow

编译者：TechFlow

In my MKR/SKY report a few months ago, I suggested that the resumption of buybacks would allow it to outperform most crypto assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Since the buyback was announced on February 20:

在几个月前我的MKR/天空报告中，我建议恢复回购可以使其在风险调整的基础上优于大多数加密资产。自从2月20日宣布回购以来：

In this update, I will discuss three reasons why I think this trend will continue:

在此更新中，我将讨论我认为这种趋势将继续的三个原因：

Introducing the SKY staking mechanism

介绍天空占有机制

Currently, MKR/SKY is a token that uses all protocol revenue to buy back tokens. At the current buyback rate, the protocol buys back about $15 million per month ($500,000 per day), which is equivalent to buying back about 1% of the circulating supply per month (the highest proportion among all crypto projects).

目前，MKR/Sky是一个使用所有协议收入来回购令牌的代币。该协议以当前的回购率购买了约1500万美元（每天500,000美元），这相当于收回每月循环供应量的约1％（所有加密项目中最高的比例）。

On April 30, Rune published a proposal on the forum to launch the SKY staking mechanism. According to the proposal, 50% of the protocol revenue will be distributed to SKY stakers, paid in USDS. In other words, about $250,000 will be used for repurchase every day, and $250,000 will be distributed to stakers.

4月30日，符文在论坛上发表了一项提案，以推出天空堆放机制。根据该提案，协议收入的50％将分配给Sky Stakers，以USDS支付。换句话说，每天将大约25万美元用于回购，250,000美元将分配给Stakers。

Assuming 33% of SKY supply is staked, stakers can expect to receive a staking yield of 7-8%.

假设将33％的天空供应放在储存中，Stakers可以预计将获得7-8％的股产收益率。

Forced SKY Token Migration

强迫天使令牌迁移

In the same update, it was also mentioned that a mandatory migration from MKR to SKY would take place:

在同一更新中，还提到将发生从MKR到天空的强制性迁移：

Since MKR is one of the earliest ERC20 tokens (launched in 2017), there are bound to be some tokens that are permanently lost. This could be due to lost private keys, lost wallets, or death of the holder. Through on-chain data analysis, I found some "sleeping MKR tokens" that will inevitably be destroyed from the supply.

由于MKR是最早的ERC20代币之一（于2017年推出），因此肯定会有一些永久丢失的令牌。这可能是由于失去的私钥，丢失的钱包或持有人死亡。通过链上数据分析，我发现一些“睡眠MKR令牌”将不可避免地从供应中销毁。

I based this on reasonable assumptions, such as: "If there are 23,349 MKR tokens that have not been moved in the past 4-5 years, I can assume that about 90% of them are permanently lost, i.e. destroyed." Based on these assumptions, I expect that about 100,000 MKR will be destroyed due to migration (about 11.4% of the circulating supply). By referring to other examples of lost tokens (such as Aragon DAO), I think this is a conservative estimate.

我基于合理的假设，例如：“如果有23,349 MKR令牌在过去的4 - 5年中没有被移动，我可以假设其中约有90％的人永久丢失了，即销毁了。”基于这些假设，我预计由于迁移（约占循环供应量的11.4％），约有100,000 MKR将被破坏。通过指代其他令牌丢失的例子（例如Aragon Dao），我认为这是保守的估计。

Take the Aragon DAO token ($ANT) in 2023, which was trading below the treasury value. “Treasury raiders” or RFVooors purchased tokens at a price below the net asset value (NAV) and demanded that the treasury be redeemed for a profit. This operation was successful, and a migration process of ANT tokens to new tokens was initiated to redeem the treasury value. During this process, approximately 27% of the tokens were not migrated, which can be inferred to be permanently lost.

以2023年的Aragon Dao代币（$ ANT）为例，该代币的交易低于国库价值。 “财政突袭者”或RFVOOORS以低于净资产价值（NAV）的价格购买了代币，并要求将财政部兑换为利润。这项操作是成功的，并且启动了蚂蚁代币到新令牌的迁移过程，以兑现财政价值。在此过程中，大约27％的令牌未迁移，可以推断出永久丢失。

Therefore, I expect that 10-20% of MKR will be destroyed in the next few months or years, which will support the token price. In addition, this forced migration may prompt more centralized exchanges (CEX) to list SKY, which will bring additional benefits.

因此，我预计将在未来几个月或几年内将10-20％的MKR销毁，这将支持令牌价格。此外，这种强制迁移可能会促使更多集中的交易所（CEX）列出天空，这将带来额外的好处。

SPK Token Launch

SPK令牌发布

Spark is a project that combines a lending market with on-chain asset management, and with almost no incentives, has achieved $40 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2023. They are able to borrow stablecoins for SKY at subsidized rates, allocating capital on-chain.

Spark是一个将贷款市场与链链资产管理相结合的项目，几乎没有激励措施，在2023年第一季度获得了4000万美元的收入。他们能够以补贴的价格借用Sky的Stablecoins，从而分配了资本。

SPK will be a "fair launch/mining" token that users can only mine by staking USDS or SKY (the specific economic model can be found in the relevant documents). In the first two years of token issuance, 50% of $SPK incentives will be allocated. If the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is assumed to be $500 million, $250 million of the value will be allocated to SKY/USDS stakers. This not only provides staking income for the native token, but also promotes the growth of USDS, which will further drive more buybacks in the future.

SPK将是一个“公平的发布/采矿”令牌，用户只能通过存放USD或天空来挖掘（可以在相关文档中找到特定的经济模型）。在令牌发行的前两年中，将分配$ SPK激励措施的50％。如果假定完全稀释的估值（FDV）为5亿美元，则为2.5亿美元的价值将分配给Sky/USDS Stakers。这不仅为本地代币提供了存放收入，而且还促进了USD的增长，这将在未来进一步推动更多回购。

In addition, there are other subDAOs or "star" projects coming online soon (such as Solana Star, RWA Star, etc.), and the launch of these new projects will further support the repurchase plan.

此外，很快还有其他SubDaos或“星”项目（例如Solana Star，RWA Star等），这些新项目的启动将进一步支持回购计划。

Stablecoin Bill

The GENIUS ACT is expected to be signed by Trump in July or August. Although the bill is primarily targeted at centralized stablecoin issuers (and therefore has little impact on decentralized issuers), this policy narrative could provide a positive market impetus for MKR/SKY. Industry experts predict that the bill is expected to be passed in July or August.

预计特朗普将在7月或8月签署《天才法》。尽管该法案主要针对集中的Stablecoin发行人（因此对分散的发行人的影响很小），但该政策叙述可以为MKR/SKY提供积极的市场动力。行业专家预测，该法案将在7月或8月通过。