墨西哥通膨加速超乎預期，令八月降息押注複雜化

（彭博）—本月早些時候，墨西哥整體通膨增速遠超預期，令投資者押注墨西哥銀行將在 8 月恢復降息變得更加複雜。

Mexico’s headline inflation accelerated much more than expected early this month, complicating investor bets that Banco de Mexico will resume interest rate cuts in August.

本月初墨西哥整體通膨成長遠超預期，令投資人押注墨西哥銀行將在八月恢復降息變得更加複雜。

Official data published Wednesday showed consumer prices rose 5.61% in the first two weeks of July from the same period a year earlier, above all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists that had a 5.38% median estimate.

週三公佈的官方數據顯示，7 月前兩週消費者價格較去年同期上漲 5.61%，高於彭博經濟學家調查的所有預測，該調查的中位數為 5.38%。

Closely-watched core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, slowed to 4.02% from 4.08% in the prior reading, matching the median estimate of the survey. The central bank targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.

受到密切關注的核心通膨率（不包括食品和燃料等波動性項目）從先前的 4.08% 放緩至 4.02%，與調查的中位數估計相符。央行的通膨目標為3%，上下浮動一個百分點。

Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, kept borrowing costs unchanged at 11% in a 4-1 split decision on June 27, with board member Omar Mejia voting for a quarter-point cut. Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja has said recent progress in the disinflation process would allow the bank to discuss lowering rates in the future.

墨西哥中央銀行 Banxico 在 6 月 27 日以 4 比 1 的分歧決定將借貸成本維持在 11% 不變，董事會成員 Omar Mejia 投票支持下調 25 個基點。行長維多利亞·羅德里格斯·塞哈 (Victoria Rodriguez Ceja) 表示，近期通貨緊縮進程的進展將使央行能夠討論未來降低利率的問題。

The driver of early July’s faster-than-expected reading was non-core inflation, which accelerated 10.64% from a year prior. Fruits and vegetables spiked 6.15% compared to the prior two-week period, while agricultural products rose 3.49% and energy prices increased 1.59%.

7月初數據快於預期的推動因素是非核心通膨，較上年同期加速10.64%。與前兩週相比，水果和蔬菜價格上漲 6.15%，農產品價格上漲 3.49%，能源價格上漲 1.59%。

“My feeling is central bankers will prioritize the improvement we see in core measures, which came in line with estimates, and cut,” said Jessica Roldan, an economist at Casa de Bolsa Finamex. Still, August’s rate decision remains a coin toss between a reduction and another pause, she said. “It’s tricky to lower rates when this print should increase the bank’s inflation estimates.”

Casa de Bolsa Finamex 經濟學家 Jessica Roldan 表示：「我的感覺是，央行行長們將優先考慮我們在核心措施中看到的改善，這些措施符合預期，然後進行降息。她表示，儘管如此，八月的利率決定仍然是在降息和再次暫停之間拋硬幣。 “當這份報告會增加銀行的通膨預期時，降低利率是很棘手的。”

Earlier this month, Banxico’s Mejia said there could be an adjustment in the benchmark interest rate in the bank’s next meeting Aug. 8, but that any cuts would have to be gradual and wouldn’t imply the beginning of an easing campaign.

本月早些時候，Banxico 的 Mejia 表示，該行可能會在 8 月 8 日的下一次會議上調整基準利率，但任何降息都必須是漸進的，並不意味著寬鬆政策的開始。

Analysts in a Citi survey published July 22 expected policymakers to lower borrowing costs by a quarter-point next month. Yet, they also raised their 2024 year-end inflation forecast to 4.4% from 4.3% previously, and to 3.85% for year-end 2025 from 3.8%.

花旗集團 7 月 22 日發布的一項調查顯示，分析師預計政策制定者下個月將把借貸成本降低 25 個基點。然而，他們也將 2024 年底通膨預測從先前的 4.3% 上調至 4.4%，並將 2025 年底通膨預測從 3.8% 上調至 3.85%。

“Our base case remains that Banxico will resume its easing cycle next month,” Kimberley Sperrfechter, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. But given Wednesday’s print pushes inflation to the highest in the last 14 months, chances of a cut are “somewhat” diminishing, she wrote.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)新興市場經濟學家金伯利·斯佩爾費希特(Kimberley Sperrfechter)在一份報告中寫道：“我們的基本情況仍然是墨西哥央行將在下個月恢復寬鬆週期。”但她寫道，鑑於週三的印刷品將通膨推至過去 14 個月來的最高水平，降息的可能性「在某種程度上」減少。

Policymakers led by Rodriguez have been battling persistent inflationary pressures and market volatility, making their last rate decision “one of the most complex” of the recent monetary cycle, according to the minutes to that gathering.

根據會議紀要，以羅德里格斯為首的政策制定者一直在應對持續的通膨壓力和市場波動，使他們的最後一次利率決定成為近期貨幣週期中「最複雜的決定之一」。

The decision to keep rates unchanged for a second straight month was influenced by persistent price increases and asset swings following June’s presidential election.

連續第二個月維持利率不變的決定是受到六月總統選舉後價格持續上漲和資產波動的影響。

--With assistance from Rafael Gayol.

——在拉斐爾·加約爾的幫助下。

(Updates with economist comments, report details from fifth paragraph on)

（經濟學家評論的更新，報告細節從第五段開始）