墨西哥通胀加速超过预期，令八月降息押注复杂化

（彭博社）——本月早些时候，墨西哥整体通胀增速远超预期，令投资者押注墨西哥银行将在 8 月恢复降息变得更加复杂。

Mexico’s headline inflation accelerated much more than expected early this month, complicating investor bets that Banco de Mexico will resume interest rate cuts in August.

本月初墨西哥整体通胀增速远超预期，令投资者押注墨西哥银行将在八月恢复降息变得更加复杂。

Official data published Wednesday showed consumer prices rose 5.61% in the first two weeks of July from the same period a year earlier, above all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists that had a 5.38% median estimate.

周三公布的官方数据显示，7 月前两周消费者价格较去年同期上涨 5.61%，高于彭博经济学家调查的所有预测，该调查的中值为 5.38%。

Closely-watched core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, slowed to 4.02% from 4.08% in the prior reading, matching the median estimate of the survey. The central bank targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.

受到密切关注的核心通胀率（不包括食品和燃料等波动性项目）从之前的 4.08% 放缓至 4.02%，与调查的中值估计相符。央行的通胀目标为3%，上下浮动一个百分点。

Banxico, as the Mexican central bank is known, kept borrowing costs unchanged at 11% in a 4-1 split decision on June 27, with board member Omar Mejia voting for a quarter-point cut. Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja has said recent progress in the disinflation process would allow the bank to discuss lowering rates in the future.

墨西哥中央银行 Banxico 在 6 月 27 日以 4 比 1 的分歧决定将借贷成本维持在 11% 不变，董事会成员 Omar Mejia 投票支持下调 25 个基点。行长维多利亚·罗德里格斯·塞哈 (Victoria Rodriguez Ceja) 表示，近期通货紧缩进程取得的进展将使央行能够讨论未来降低利率的问题。

The driver of early July’s faster-than-expected reading was non-core inflation, which accelerated 10.64% from a year prior. Fruits and vegetables spiked 6.15% compared to the prior two-week period, while agricultural products rose 3.49% and energy prices increased 1.59%.

7月初数据快于预期的推动因素是非核心通胀，较上年同期加速10.64%。与前两周相比，水果和蔬菜价格上涨 6.15%，农产品价格上涨 3.49%，能源价格上涨 1.59%。

“My feeling is central bankers will prioritize the improvement we see in core measures, which came in line with estimates, and cut,” said Jessica Roldan, an economist at Casa de Bolsa Finamex. Still, August’s rate decision remains a coin toss between a reduction and another pause, she said. “It’s tricky to lower rates when this print should increase the bank’s inflation estimates.”

Casa de Bolsa Finamex 经济学家杰西卡·罗尔丹 (Jessica Roldan) 表示：“我的感觉是，央行行长们将优先考虑我们在核心措施中看到的改善，这些措施符合预期，然后进行降息。”她表示，尽管如此，八月份的利率决定仍然是在降息和再次暂停之​​间抛硬币。 “当这份报告会增加银行的通胀预期时，降低利率是很棘手的。”

Earlier this month, Banxico’s Mejia said there could be an adjustment in the benchmark interest rate in the bank’s next meeting Aug. 8, but that any cuts would have to be gradual and wouldn’t imply the beginning of an easing campaign.

本月早些时候，Banxico 的 Mejia 表示，该行可能会在 8 月 8 日的下一次会议上调整基准利率，但任何降息都必须是渐进的，并不意味着宽松政策的开始。

Analysts in a Citi survey published July 22 expected policymakers to lower borrowing costs by a quarter-point next month. Yet, they also raised their 2024 year-end inflation forecast to 4.4% from 4.3% previously, and to 3.85% for year-end 2025 from 3.8%.

花旗集团 7 月 22 日发布的一项调查显示，分析师预计政策制定者下个月将把借贷成本降低 25 个基点。然而，他们还将 2024 年年底通胀预测从之前的 4.3% 上调至 4.4%，并将 2025 年年底通胀预测从 3.8% 上调至 3.85%。

“Our base case remains that Banxico will resume its easing cycle next month,” Kimberley Sperrfechter, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. But given Wednesday’s print pushes inflation to the highest in the last 14 months, chances of a cut are “somewhat” diminishing, she wrote.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)新兴市场经济学家金伯利·斯佩尔费希特(Kimberley Sperrfechter)在一份报告中写道：“我们的基本情况仍然是墨西哥央行将在下个月恢复宽松周期。”但她写道，鉴于周三的印刷品将通胀推至过去 14 个月来的最高水平，降息的可能性“在某种程度上”减少。

Policymakers led by Rodriguez have been battling persistent inflationary pressures and market volatility, making their last rate decision “one of the most complex” of the recent monetary cycle, according to the minutes to that gathering.

根据会议纪要，以罗德里格斯为首的政策制定者一直在应对持续的通胀压力和市场波动，使他们的最后一次利率决定成为近期货币周期中“最复杂的决定之一”。

The decision to keep rates unchanged for a second straight month was influenced by persistent price increases and asset swings following June’s presidential election.

连续第二个月维持利率不变的决定是受到六月总统选举后价格持续上涨和资产波动的影响。

--With assistance from Rafael Gayol.

——在拉斐尔·加约尔的帮助下。

(Updates with economist comments, report details from fifth paragraph on)

（经济学家评论的更新，报告细节从第五段开始）