本週市集：2024 年 9 月 9 日

我們每週的機構洞察探討最新的市場發展—市場表現、產業新聞、交易所交易基金 (ETF) 流向、熱門話題

Our weekly Institutional Insights deep dives into the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, ETF flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

我們每週的機構洞察深入探討最新的市場發展——市場表現、行業新聞、ETF 流量、趨勢主題、即將發生的事件和代幣解鎖——以幫助您增強加密貨幣交易。

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

享受我們每週對市場的看法！

Macro Overview — Weak Job Reports Boost Rate Cut Chance

宏觀概覽－疲弱的就業報告增加降息機會

Source: Bloomberg

資料來源：彭博社

US hiring fell short of expectations in August, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 142,000, the lowest three-month average since mid-2020. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, the first decline in five months, reflecting fewer temporary layoffs. Forecasts had anticipated a rise of 165,000 jobs, highlighting a trend of moderate employment gains.

美國8月就業人數未達預期，非農業就業人數僅增加14.2萬人，為2020年中期以來最低三個月平均。失業率降至 4.2%，五個月來首次下降，反映出臨時裁員減少。預測預計將增加 165,000 個就業崗位，凸顯就業溫和成長的趨勢。

In response to the weak job growth, Treasury yields fluctuated, and traders speculated that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by half a percentage point in their upcoming meeting. Analysts, including Sonu Varghese of Carson Group, suggested that the labor market's softening warrants Fed intervention, potentially leading to a September rate cut.

由於就業成長疲軟，國債殖利率波動，交易員猜測聯準會可能在即將召開的會議上降息半個百分點。包括卡森集團 (Carson Group) 的索努·瓦爾蓋斯 (Sonu Varghese) 在內的分析師表示，勞動力市場的疲軟需要聯準會進行幹預，這可能導致 9 月降息。

Job losses were noted in sectors such as manufacturing and retail, while hiring in education and healthcare slowed significantly. The broader underemployment rate rose to 7.9%, its highest since October 2021. Although average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-over-year, the Fed remains cautious, weighing the need for rate adjustments against signs of economic cooling. Officials are considering two approaches: steady 25-basis-point cuts or larger reductions to signal a stronger response to labor market conditions.

製造業和零售業等行業出現失業，而教育和醫療保健行業的招聘速度大幅放緩。更廣泛的就業不足率升至7.9%，為2021年10月以來的最高水平。官員們正在考慮兩種方法：穩定降息 25 個基點或大幅降息，以表明對勞動市場狀況做出更強有力的反應。

Weekly Crypto Highlight — MATIC Transitions to POL

每週加密亮點 — MATIC 過渡到 POL

Polygon is transitioning from using the MATIC token to the new POL token, sparking discussions on whether this change is merely a rebranding or a significant shift for the platform. Originally launched as Matic Network in 2017, the project rebranded to Polygon in 2021, retaining MATIC as its gas token. Despite its early successes, MATIC has seen an 87.1% decline from its all-time high in 2022.

Polygon 正在從使用 MATIC 代幣過渡到新的 POL 代幣，引發了關於這一變化是否僅僅是品牌重塑還是平台重大轉變的討論。該計畫最初於 2017 年推出，名為 Matic Network，於 2021 年更名為 Polygon，並保留 MATIC 作為其 Gas 代幣。儘管早期取得了成功，但 MATIC 較 2022 年的歷史最高點下降了 87.1%。

The recent change sees POL replacing MATIC as the native gas and staking token on the Polygon PoS sidechain at a 1:1 ratio. The potential impact of this upgrade is mixed. On the bearish side, MATIC's circulating supply is nearing its cap of 10 billion, while POL will introduce a 2% annual inflation over the next decade—though this may not be significant in the long run. Additionally, Polygon has lost market share to newer competitors, with its total value locked (TVL) at approximately $887 million compared to Arbitrum's $2.6 billion.

最近的變化是 POL 取代 MATIC 作為原生 Gas，並以 1:1 的比例在 Polygon PoS 側鏈上質押代幣。此次升級的潛在影響是複雜的。從看跌的角度來看，MATIC 的流通供應量已接近 100 億的上限，而 POL 將在未來十年引入 2% 的年通膨率——儘管從長遠來看這可能並不重要。此外，Polygon 的市佔率被新競爭對手奪走，其鎖定總價值 (TVL) 約為 8.87 億美元，而 Arbitrum 為 26 億美元。

Conversely, the bullish case hinges on Polygon's strong business development team and its ability to leverage partnerships, such as the one with Reddit. The introduction of POL as a staking token for multiple chains within the Polygon ecosystem could create new demand. The vision for a unified L2 ecosystem, though still under development, aims for scalability and liquidity through Polygon’s AggLayer technology.

相反，看漲的情況取決於 Polygon 強大的業務開發團隊及其利用合作夥伴關係（例如與 Reddit 的合作夥伴關係）的能力。引入 POL 作為 Polygon 生態系統內多個鏈的質押代幣可能會創造新的需求。統一 L2 生態系統的願景雖然仍在開發中，但旨在透過 Polygon 的 AggLayer 技術實現可擴展性和流動性。

For current MATIC holders, the migration to POL is straightforward, with staked MATIC automatically upgraded and regular MATIC requiring migration via the Polygon Portal. There is no urgency for this migration, allowing users to proceed at their own pace.

對於目前 MATIC 持有者來說，遷移到 POL 非常簡單，質押的 MATIC 會自動升級，而常規 MATIC 需要透過 Polygon Portal 進行遷移。此遷移並不緊迫，允許使用者按照自己的進度進行。

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows.

比特幣現貨 ETF 流量 比特幣現貨 ETF 流量總計。

Source: CoinGlass, as of Sep 6, 2024

資料來源：CoinGlass，截至 2024 年 9 月 6 日

Bitcoin is facing significant challenges in its pursuit of breaking above the $60,000 mark. In the past week, the cryptocurrency has experienced consecutive weekly net outflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs, marking the longest streak of outflows since these ETFs were introduced in January 2024. This trend suggests a growing sentiment among investors who may be cautious about entering or maintaining positions in Bitcoin at its current price levels.

比特幣在突破 6 萬美元大關的過程中面臨重大挑戰。過去一周，比特幣現貨ETF 連續每週淨流出該加密貨幣，這是自2024 年1 月推出這些ETF 以來最長的連續流出。維持頭寸持謹慎態度以比特幣當前的價格水準。

In light of these developments, some analysts are forecasting a potential dip to the $50,000 range. This level is viewed as a critical support zone for Bitcoin, where many bullish investors are likely to step in and buy, believing it represents a favorable entry point.

鑑於這些發展，一些分析師預測價格可能會跌至 50,000 美元的範圍。該水平被視為比特幣的關鍵支撐區域，許多看漲投資者可能會介入並買入，認為這是一個有利的切入點。

Other Top Performing Tokens

其他表現最佳的代幣

Token Catalyst

代幣催化劑

Sui (SUI) SUI surged following the launch of the AUSD stablecoin on Sui, boosting its DeFi ecosystem and liquidity. Read more here.

Sui (SUI) 隨著 AUSD 穩定幣在 Sui 上推出，SUI 飆升，提振了其 DeFi 生態系統和流動性。在這裡閱讀更多內容。

Ordinals (ORDI) ORDI surged 19.1% following the announcement of the Ordinals Summit and Inscribing Atlantis hosting a major Bitcoin event at the National Gallery Singapore. Read more here.

Ordinals (ORDI) 在 Ordinals 高峰會和 Inscribing Atlantis 宣佈在新加坡國家美術館舉辦大型比特幣活動後，ORDI 飆升 19.1%。在這裡閱讀更多內容。

NULS (NULS) NULS surged 10.6% after the announcement of the NULS Oracle as the first project of the Ecosystem Ignition Initiative. Read more here.

NULS（NULS） NULS Oracle作為生態系統點火計畫的第一個項目宣布後，NULS飆升10.6％。在這裡閱讀更多內容。

Check out the Q2 2024 CoinDesk Report on top-performing tokens.

請參閱 2024 年第二季 CoinDesk 報告，以了解表現最佳的代幣。