本周市场：2024 年 9 月 9 日

我们每周的机构洞察探讨最新的市场发展——市场表现、行业新闻、交易所交易基金 (ETF) 流向、热门话题

Our weekly Institutional Insights deep dives into the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, ETF flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

我们每周的机构洞察深入探讨最新的市场发展——市场表现、行业新闻、ETF 流量、趋势主题、即将发生的事件和代币解锁——以帮助您增强加密货币交易。

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

享受我们每周对市场的看法！

Macro Overview — Weak Job Reports Boost Rate Cut Chance

宏观概览——疲弱的就业报告增加降息机会

Source: Bloomberg

资料来源：彭博社

US hiring fell short of expectations in August, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 142,000, the lowest three-month average since mid-2020. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, the first decline in five months, reflecting fewer temporary layoffs. Forecasts had anticipated a rise of 165,000 jobs, highlighting a trend of moderate employment gains.

美国8月就业人数未达预期，非农就业人数仅增加14.2万人，为2020年中期以来最低三个月平均水平。失业率降至 4.2%，五个月来首次下降，反映出临时裁员减少。预测预计就业岗位将增加 165,000 个，凸显就业温和增长的趋势。

In response to the weak job growth, Treasury yields fluctuated, and traders speculated that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by half a percentage point in their upcoming meeting. Analysts, including Sonu Varghese of Carson Group, suggested that the labor market's softening warrants Fed intervention, potentially leading to a September rate cut.

由于就业增长疲软，国债收益率波动，交易员猜测美联储可能在即将召开的会议上降息半个百分点。包括卡森集团 (Carson Group) 的索努·瓦尔盖斯 (Sonu Varghese) 在内的分析师表示，劳动力市场的疲软需要美联储进行干预，这可能导致 9 月份降息。

Job losses were noted in sectors such as manufacturing and retail, while hiring in education and healthcare slowed significantly. The broader underemployment rate rose to 7.9%, its highest since October 2021. Although average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-over-year, the Fed remains cautious, weighing the need for rate adjustments against signs of economic cooling. Officials are considering two approaches: steady 25-basis-point cuts or larger reductions to signal a stronger response to labor market conditions.

制造业和零售业等行业出现失业，而教育和医疗保健行业的招聘速度大幅放缓。更广泛的就业不足率升至7.9%，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。尽管平均时薪同比增长3.8%，但美联储仍保持谨慎态度，权衡利率调整的必要性和经济降温的迹象。官员们正在考虑两种方法：稳定降息 25 个基点或大幅降息，以表明对劳动力市场状况做出更强有力的反应。

Weekly Crypto Highlight — MATIC Transitions to POL

每周加密亮点 — MATIC 过渡到 POL

Polygon is transitioning from using the MATIC token to the new POL token, sparking discussions on whether this change is merely a rebranding or a significant shift for the platform. Originally launched as Matic Network in 2017, the project rebranded to Polygon in 2021, retaining MATIC as its gas token. Despite its early successes, MATIC has seen an 87.1% decline from its all-time high in 2022.

Polygon 正在从使用 MATIC 代币过渡到新的 POL 代币，引发了关于这一变化是否仅仅是品牌重塑还是平台重大转变的讨论。该项目最初于 2017 年推出，名为 Matic Network，于 2021 年更名为 Polygon，并保留 MATIC 作为其 Gas 代币。尽管早期取得了成功，但 MATIC 较 2022 年的历史最高点下降了 87.1%。

The recent change sees POL replacing MATIC as the native gas and staking token on the Polygon PoS sidechain at a 1:1 ratio. The potential impact of this upgrade is mixed. On the bearish side, MATIC's circulating supply is nearing its cap of 10 billion, while POL will introduce a 2% annual inflation over the next decade—though this may not be significant in the long run. Additionally, Polygon has lost market share to newer competitors, with its total value locked (TVL) at approximately $887 million compared to Arbitrum's $2.6 billion.

最近的变化是 POL 取代 MATIC 作为原生 Gas，并以 1:1 的比例在 Polygon PoS 侧链上质押代币。此次升级的潜在影响是复杂的。从看跌的角度来看，MATIC 的流通供应量已接近 100 亿的上限，而 POL 将在未来十年引入 2% 的年通胀率——尽管从长远来看这可能并不重要。此外，Polygon 的市场份额被新竞争对手夺走，其锁定总价值 (TVL) 约为 8.87 亿美元，而 Arbitrum 为 26 亿美元。

Conversely, the bullish case hinges on Polygon's strong business development team and its ability to leverage partnerships, such as the one with Reddit. The introduction of POL as a staking token for multiple chains within the Polygon ecosystem could create new demand. The vision for a unified L2 ecosystem, though still under development, aims for scalability and liquidity through Polygon’s AggLayer technology.

相反，看涨的情况取决于 Polygon 强大的业务开发团队及其利用合作伙伴关系（例如与 Reddit 的合作伙伴关系）的能力。引入 POL 作为 Polygon 生态系统内多个链的质押代币可能会创造新的需求。统一 L2 生态系统的愿景虽然仍在开发中，但旨在通过 Polygon 的 AggLayer 技术实现可扩展性和流动性。

For current MATIC holders, the migration to POL is straightforward, with staked MATIC automatically upgraded and regular MATIC requiring migration via the Polygon Portal. There is no urgency for this migration, allowing users to proceed at their own pace.

对于当前 MATIC 持有者来说，迁移到 POL 非常简单，质押的 MATIC 会自动升级，而常规 MATIC 需要通过 Polygon Portal 进行迁移。此迁移并不紧迫，允许用户按照自己的进度进行。

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows.

比特币现货 ETF 流量 比特币现货 ETF 流量总计。

Source: CoinGlass, as of Sep 6, 2024

资料来源：CoinGlass，截至 2024 年 9 月 6 日

Bitcoin is facing significant challenges in its pursuit of breaking above the $60,000 mark. In the past week, the cryptocurrency has experienced consecutive weekly net outflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs, marking the longest streak of outflows since these ETFs were introduced in January 2024. This trend suggests a growing sentiment among investors who may be cautious about entering or maintaining positions in Bitcoin at its current price levels.

比特币在突破 60,000 美元大关的过程中面临着重大挑战。过去一周，比特币现货 ETF 连续每周净流出该加密货币，这是自 2024 年 1 月推出这些 ETF 以来最长的连续流出。这一趋势表明，投资者的情绪日益高涨，他们可能对入市或维持头寸持谨慎态度以比特币当前的价格水平。

In light of these developments, some analysts are forecasting a potential dip to the $50,000 range. This level is viewed as a critical support zone for Bitcoin, where many bullish investors are likely to step in and buy, believing it represents a favorable entry point.

鉴于这些发展，一些分析师预测价格可能会跌至 50,000 美元的范围。该水平被视为比特币的关键支撑区域，许多看涨投资者可能会介入并买入，认为这是一个有利的切入点。

Other Top Performing Tokens

其他表现最佳的代币

Token Catalyst

代币催化剂

Sui (SUI) SUI surged following the launch of the AUSD stablecoin on Sui, boosting its DeFi ecosystem and liquidity. Read more here.

Sui (SUI) 随着 AUSD 稳定币在 Sui 上推出，SUI 飙升，提振了其 DeFi 生态系统和流动性。在这里阅读更多内容。

Ordinals (ORDI) ORDI surged 19.1% following the announcement of the Ordinals Summit and Inscribing Atlantis hosting a major Bitcoin event at the National Gallery Singapore. Read more here.

Ordinals (ORDI) 在 Ordinals 峰会和 Inscribing Atlantis 宣布在新加坡国家美术馆举办大型比特币活动后，ORDI 飙升 19.1%。在这里阅读更多内容。

NULS (NULS) NULS surged 10.6% after the announcement of the NULS Oracle as the first project of the Ecosystem Ignition Initiative. Read more here.

NULS（NULS） NULS Oracle作为生态系统点火计划的第一个项目宣布后，NULS飙升10.6％。在这里阅读更多内容。

Check out the Q2 2024 CoinDesk Report on top-performing tokens.

查看 2024 年第二季度 CoinDesk 报告，了解表现最佳的代币。