流動性上升

全球流動性週期在過去三、四年變得突出，這在很大程度上要歸功於跨國資本執行長的工作

This week’s editorial is from last week’s newsletter, Week in Review. If you want to get this editorial the second it’s finished, subscribe to the newsletter. The newsletter also includes the biggest stories of the week with a comment on each story.

本週的社論來自上週的通訊「一週回顧」。如果您想在這篇社論完成後立即收到該社論，請訂閱時事通訊。這則時事通訊還包括本週最重要的故事以及對每個故事的評論。

Liquidity Rising

流動性上升

The global liquidity cycle has become more prominent in the last three or four years, thanks in part to the work of Michael Howell, Cross Border Capital’s CEO and Managing Director. His system, which he developed while working as Research Director at Salomon Brothers from ‘86 to ‘92, offers a broader perspective on global liquidity than those that are only concerned with money circulating in the general economy (e.g., M1 or M2). According to Howell, the majority of liquidity is present in financial and asset markets, which makes sense when you consider that measures like M2 do not include sovereign bonds, bank reserves, or other forms of credit.

全球流動性週期在過去三、四年變得更加突出，這在一定程度上要歸功於 Cross Border Capital 執行長兼董事總經理 Michael Howell 的工作。他的系統是他於86 年至92 年期間在所羅門兄弟公司擔任研究總監時開發的，它為全球流動性提供了比那些只關注整體經濟中流通的貨幣（例如M1 或M2）更廣泛的視角。豪厄爾認為，大部分流動性存在於金融和資產市場，當你考慮到 M2 等指標不包括主權債券、銀行儲備或其他形式的信貸時，這是有道理的。

This brings us to the conclusion that global liquidity is rising. Howell’s model describes a four-year cycle, and we are currently in the rising phase. For skeptics, there is no stronger evidence that global liquidity is rising than the Fed cutting 50 basis points on September 15. Seven days after Powell effectively announced the beginning of a U.S. easing cycle, China’s central bank introduced its most aggressive stimulus package in four years. This should be a boon for Bitcoin and crypto as one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets, if not the most sensitive.

這讓我們得出這樣的結論：全球流動性正在上升。豪厄爾的模型描述了一個四年的週期，我們目前正處於上升階段。對於懷疑論者來說，沒有比聯準會9月15日降息50個基點更強有力的證據表明全球流動性正在上升。計劃。這對比特幣和加密貨幣來說應該是一個福音，因為它是對流動性最敏感的資產之一，即使不是最敏感的。

Many people were curious as to why China made its move “now.” Why did China wait so long to help its struggling economy, which is expected to fall short of its 5% 2024 growth target? Weston Nakamura of Across the Spread highlighted the obvious: China had to wait for the Fed to begin an easing cycle before it could do the same, out of concern that doing so would worsen the ongoing currency risks of yuan depreciation and further capital outflows.

許多人好奇中國為何「現在」採取行動。為什麼中國等了這麼久才幫助其陷入困境的經濟，預計該國經濟將達不到 2024 年 5% 的成長目標？ Across the Spread的韋斯頓·中村(Weston Nakamura)強調了一個顯而易見的事實：中國必須等待聯準會開始寬鬆週期才能採取同樣的行動，因為擔心這樣做會加劇人民幣貶值和進一步資本外流的持續貨幣風險。

China’s action serves as a strong indication that other nations will probably follow suit sooner rather than later. It’s probably best to pay no mind to this week’s price action if the size of China’s initial response is an indication of the liquidity deluge to come. Continue steadily.

中國的行動強烈表明其他國家可能會盡快跟進。如果中國最初反應的規模表明流動性氾濫即將到來，那麼最好不要關注本週的價格走勢。繼續穩步前進。

Please share your ideas and opinions on this topic in the comments section below if you believe there is a liquidity cycle.

如果您認為存在流動性週期，請在下面的評論部分分享您對此主題的想法和意見。