流动性上升

全球流动性周期在过去三四年里变得突出，这在很大程度上要归功于跨境资本首席执行官的工作

This week’s editorial is from last week’s newsletter, Week in Review. If you want to get this editorial the second it’s finished, subscribe to the newsletter. The newsletter also includes the biggest stories of the week with a comment on each story.

本周的社论来自上周的时事通讯“一周回顾”。如果您想在这篇社论完成后立即收到该社论，请订阅时事通讯。该时事通讯还包括本周最重要的故事以及对每个故事的评论。

Liquidity Rising

流动性上升

The global liquidity cycle has become more prominent in the last three or four years, thanks in part to the work of Michael Howell, Cross Border Capital’s CEO and Managing Director. His system, which he developed while working as Research Director at Salomon Brothers from ‘86 to ‘92, offers a broader perspective on global liquidity than those that are only concerned with money circulating in the general economy (e.g., M1 or M2). According to Howell, the majority of liquidity is present in financial and asset markets, which makes sense when you consider that measures like M2 do not include sovereign bonds, bank reserves, or other forms of credit.

全球流动性周期在过去三四年变得更加突出，这在一定程度上要归功于 Cross Border Capital 首席执行官兼董事总经理 Michael Howell 的工作。他的系统是他于 86 年至 92 年期间在所罗门兄弟公司担任研究总监时开发的，它为全球流动性提供了比那些只关注整体经济中流通的货币（例如 M1 或 M2）更广泛的视角。豪厄尔认为，大部分流动性存在于金融和资产市场，当你考虑到 M2 等指标不包括主权债券、银行储备或其他形式的信贷时，这是有道理的。

This brings us to the conclusion that global liquidity is rising. Howell’s model describes a four-year cycle, and we are currently in the rising phase. For skeptics, there is no stronger evidence that global liquidity is rising than the Fed cutting 50 basis points on September 15. Seven days after Powell effectively announced the beginning of a U.S. easing cycle, China’s central bank introduced its most aggressive stimulus package in four years. This should be a boon for Bitcoin and crypto as one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets, if not the most sensitive.

这让我们得出这样的结论：全球流动性正在上升。豪厄尔的模型描述了一个四年周期，我们目前正处于上升阶段。对于怀疑论者来说，没有比美联储9月15日降息50个基点更强有力的证据表明全球流动性正在上升。鲍威尔有效宣布美国宽松周期开始7天后，中国央行推出了四年来最激进的刺激计划。这对于比特币和加密货币来说应该是一个福音，因为它是对流动性最敏感的资产之一，即使不是最敏感的。

Many people were curious as to why China made its move “now.” Why did China wait so long to help its struggling economy, which is expected to fall short of its 5% 2024 growth target? Weston Nakamura of Across the Spread highlighted the obvious: China had to wait for the Fed to begin an easing cycle before it could do the same, out of concern that doing so would worsen the ongoing currency risks of yuan depreciation and further capital outflows.

许多人好奇中国为何“现在”采取行动。为什么中国等了这么久才帮助其陷入困境的经济，预计该国经济将达不到 2024 年 5% 的增长目标？ Across the Spread的韦斯顿·中村(Weston Nakamura)强调了一个显而易见的事实：中国必须等待美联储开始宽松周期才能采取同样的行动，因为担心这样做会加剧人民币贬值和进一步资本外流的持续货币风险。

China’s action serves as a strong indication that other nations will probably follow suit sooner rather than later. It’s probably best to pay no mind to this week’s price action if the size of China’s initial response is an indication of the liquidity deluge to come. Continue steadily.

中国的行动强烈表明其他国家可能会尽快效仿。如果中国最初反应的规模表明流动性泛滥即将到来，那么最好不要关注本周的价格走势。继续稳步前进。

Please share your ideas and opinions on this topic in the comments section below if you believe there is a liquidity cycle.

如果您认为存在流动性周期，请在下面的评论部分分享您对此主题的想法和意见。