關鍵指標挑戰聯準會「正常化」降息，點燃比特幣反彈

聯準會後風險偏好反彈支持正常化敘事，但一些指標不同意，顯示多頭需謹慎。

A 50-basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) last week sparked a debate on whether the easing represents the normalization of an excessively tight monetary policy aimed at taming inflation or preparation for an impending economic downturn.

聯準會上週降息50個基點引發了一場爭論，即此次寬鬆政策是否代表著旨在抑制通膨的過度緊縮貨幣政策正常化，還是為即將到來的經濟衰退做準備。

Risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, have rallied since the Fed decision, a sign that markets perceive the rate cut as a normalization move. Some analysts foresee accelerated gains once bitcoin surpasses the $65,200 resistance.

自聯準會決定以來，包括比特幣（BTC）和山寨幣在內的風險資產已經上漲，這表明市場將降息視為正常化舉措。一些分析師預計，一旦比特幣突破 65,200 美元的阻力位，就會加速上漲。

However, at least three indicators point to an economic malaise ahead, suggesting caution on the part of the bulls. Perhaps, the Fed delivered an outsized rate cut, taking note of these forward-looking indicators.

然而，至少有三個指標顯示未來經濟將不景氣，顯示多頭持謹慎態度。也許，聯準會考慮到這些前瞻性指標而大幅降息。

Rising joblessness

失業率上升

The U.S. Household Survey, which tracks the unemployment rate across 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, showed that as of August, more than 57% of states experienced an increase in joblessness compared to the preceding month and the same period last year, according to data tracked by MacroMicro.

追蹤50個州、華盛頓特區和波多黎各失業率的美國家庭調查顯示，截至8月，超過57%的州失業率較上月和去年同期增加，根據 MacroMicro 追蹤的數據。

The fact that most states are witnessing an uptick in the unemployment rate means the risk of reduced income, consumer spending and investment, and a decline in business and consumer confidence in the months ahead, potentially leading to a marked economic slowdown, if not an outright recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction). A slowdown could see investors scale back exposure to riskier investments.

事實上，大多數州的失業率正在上升，這意味著未來幾個月收入、消費者支出和投資減少以及企業和消費者信心下降的風險，即使不是徹底的經濟放緩，也可能導致經濟顯著放緩。經濟放緩可能導致投資者減少風險較高的投資。

"According to August's analysis, 57.7% of U.S. states reported higher unemployment rates than the previous month and year. This points to increasing challenges in the labor market, possibly signaling a more widespread slowdown," MacroMicro said on Twitter.

MacroMicro在推特上表示：“根據8月份的分析，美國57.7%的州失業率高於上月和上年。這表明勞動力市場面臨的挑戰日益增加，可能預示著更廣泛的經濟放緩。”

Lead/lag ratio

超前/滯後比

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell to 100.2 in August, dropping to its lowest since October 2016. The index marked its sixth consecutive monthly decline, triggering a recession signal.

世界大型企業聯合會領先經濟指數（LEI）8月跌至100.2，跌至2016年10月以來的最低水準。

The LEI comprises several forward-looking indicators such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly initial claims for jobless insurance, ISM new orders index, stock prices and leading credit index. The index is widely tracked to identify shifts in economic trends and turning points in asset prices.

LEI 包含多項前瞻性指標，例如製造業平均每週工時、每週平均首次申請失業保險、ISM 新訂單指數、股票價格和領先信用指數。該指數受到廣泛追踪，以識別經濟趨勢的變化和資產價格的轉折點。

More concerning is the slide in the ratio between leading and lagging indicators to under 0.85, the lowest since at least the 1950s, according to data tracked by Jeff Weniger, head of equities at WisdomTree.

WisdomTree 股票主管 Jeff Weniger 追蹤的數據顯示，更令人擔憂的是，領先指標與落後指標之間的比率下滑至0.85 以下，這是至少20 世紀50 年代以來的最低水平。

The plunge seen over the past several months points to a potential slowdown or recession, with lagging indicators catching up to the economic reality.

過去幾個月的暴跌顯示經濟可能放緩或衰退，落後指標正在趕上經濟現實。

The ratio has seen eight similar meltdowns in the past, each portending a recession.

該比率過去曾出現過八次類似的崩潰，每次都預示著經濟衰退。

Surging gold/brent ratio

黃金/布蘭特原油比率飆升

The ratio between prices for gold futures and brent crude futures has surged over 35% this year to nearly 40 points, the highest since 2020, according to data source MacroMicro.

數據來源MacroMicro的數據顯示，今年黃金期貨價格與布蘭特原油期貨價格比已飆升超過35%，達到近40點，為2020年以來的最高水準。

Gold is a safe haven asset and an inflation hedge, while oil is tied to global demand and economic activity. Therefore, gold's prolonged outperformance relative to oil is often taken to represent a sign of economic slowdown.

黃金是一種避險資產和通膨對沖工具，而石油則與全球需求和經濟活動掛鉤。因此，黃金相對於石油的長期表現通常被視為經濟放緩的跡象。

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

本文所表達的觀點和意見是作者的觀點和意見，不一定反映納斯達克公司的觀點和意見。