关键指标挑战美联储“正常化”降息，点燃比特币反弹

美联储后风险偏好反弹支持正常化叙事，但一些指标不同意，表明多头需谨慎。

A 50-basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) last week sparked a debate on whether the easing represents the normalization of an excessively tight monetary policy aimed at taming inflation or preparation for an impending economic downturn.

美联储上周降息50个基点引发了一场争论，即此次宽松政策是否代表着旨在抑制通胀的过度紧缩货币政策正常化，还是为即将到来的经济衰退做准备。

Risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, have rallied since the Fed decision, a sign that markets perceive the rate cut as a normalization move. Some analysts foresee accelerated gains once bitcoin surpasses the $65,200 resistance.

自美联储决定以来，包括比特币（BTC）和山寨币在内的风险资产已经上涨，这表明市场将降息视为正常化举措。一些分析师预计，一旦比特币突破 65,200 美元的阻力位，就会加速上涨。

However, at least three indicators point to an economic malaise ahead, suggesting caution on the part of the bulls. Perhaps, the Fed delivered an outsized rate cut, taking note of these forward-looking indicators.

然而，至少三个指标表明未来经济将不景气，这表明多头持谨慎态度。也许，美联储考虑到这些前瞻性指标而大幅降息。

Rising joblessness

失业率上升

The U.S. Household Survey, which tracks the unemployment rate across 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, showed that as of August, more than 57% of states experienced an increase in joblessness compared to the preceding month and the same period last year, according to data tracked by MacroMicro.

追踪50个州、华盛顿特区和波多黎各失业率的美国家庭调查显示，截至8月，超过57%的州失业率较上月和去年同期有所增加，根据 MacroMicro 追踪的数据。

The fact that most states are witnessing an uptick in the unemployment rate means the risk of reduced income, consumer spending and investment, and a decline in business and consumer confidence in the months ahead, potentially leading to a marked economic slowdown, if not an outright recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction). A slowdown could see investors scale back exposure to riskier investments.

事实上，大多数州的失业率正在上升，这意味着未来几个月收入、消费者支出和投资减少以及企业和消费者信心下降的风险，即使不是彻底的经济放缓，也可能导致经济显着放缓。衰退（经济连续几个季度收缩）。经济放缓可能会导致投资者减少风险较高的投资。

"According to August's analysis, 57.7% of U.S. states reported higher unemployment rates than the previous month and year. This points to increasing challenges in the labor market, possibly signaling a more widespread slowdown," MacroMicro said on Twitter.

MacroMicro在推特上表示：“根据8月份的分析，美国57.7%的州失业率高于上月和上年。这表明劳动力市场面临的挑战日益增加，可能预示着更广泛的经济放缓。”

Lead/lag ratio

超前/滞后比

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell to 100.2 in August, dropping to its lowest since October 2016. The index marked its sixth consecutive monthly decline, triggering a recession signal.

世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）8月份跌至100.2，跌至2016年10月以来的最低水平。该指数连续第6个月下跌，引发衰退信号。

The LEI comprises several forward-looking indicators such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly initial claims for jobless insurance, ISM new orders index, stock prices and leading credit index. The index is widely tracked to identify shifts in economic trends and turning points in asset prices.

LEI 包含多项前瞻性指标，例如制造业平均每周工时、每周平均首次申请失业保险、ISM 新订单指数、股票价格和领先信用指数。该指数受到广泛追踪，以识别经济趋势的变化和资产价格的转折点。

More concerning is the slide in the ratio between leading and lagging indicators to under 0.85, the lowest since at least the 1950s, according to data tracked by Jeff Weniger, head of equities at WisdomTree.

WisdomTree 股票主管杰夫·韦尼格 (Jeff Weniger) 追踪的数据显示，更令人担忧的是，领先指标与滞后指标之间的比率下滑至 0.85 以下，这是至少 20 世纪 50 年代以来的最低水平。

The plunge seen over the past several months points to a potential slowdown or recession, with lagging indicators catching up to the economic reality.

过去几个月的暴跌表明经济可能放缓或衰退，滞后指标正在赶上经济现实。

The ratio has seen eight similar meltdowns in the past, each portending a recession.

该比率过去曾出现过八次类似的崩溃，每次都预示着经济衰退。

Surging gold/brent ratio

黄金/布伦特原油比率飙升

The ratio between prices for gold futures and brent crude futures has surged over 35% this year to nearly 40 points, the highest since 2020, according to data source MacroMicro.

数据来源MacroMicro的数据显示，今年黄金期货价格与布伦特原油期货价格之比已飙升超过35%，达到近40点，为2020年以来的最高水平。

Gold is a safe haven asset and an inflation hedge, while oil is tied to global demand and economic activity. Therefore, gold's prolonged outperformance relative to oil is often taken to represent a sign of economic slowdown.

黄金是一种避险资产和通胀对冲工具，而石油则与全球需求和经济活动挂钩。因此，黄金相对于石油的长期表现通常被视为经济放缓的迹象。

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

本文表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点和意见。