機構洞察：每週市場動態（2024 年 7 月 15 日）

我們每週的機構洞察探討最新的市場發展，包括市場表現、產業新聞、交易所交易基金 (ETF) 流向

Our weekly Institutional Insights explore the latest market developments, including market performance, industry news, ETF flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks, aiming to supercharge your crypto trading.

我們每週的機構洞察探索最新的市場發展，包括市場表現、行業新聞、ETF 流量、趨勢主題、即將發生的事件和代幣解鎖，旨在增強您的加密貨幣交易。

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

享受我們每週對市場的看法！

Macro Overview — U.S. Inflation’s Unexpected Drop Supports Risky Assets

宏觀概覽－美國通膨意外下降支撐風險資產

U.S. inflation cooled broadly in June 2024, reaching the slowest pace since 2021 due to a long-awaited slowdown in housing costs. This sends a strong signal that the Federal Reserve may soon be able to cut interest rates.

由於期待已久的住房成本放緩，美國通膨在 2024 年 6 月普遍降溫，達到 2021 年以來的最低水準。這發出了一個強烈信號，即聯準會可能很快就能降息。

U.S. Consumer Price Index YoY. Source: investing.com

美國消費者物價指數較去年同期。資料來源：investing.com

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, rose just 0.1% from May — the smallest increase in three years. The overall CPI measure even fell for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic began, driven by cheaper gasoline prices.

根據勞工統計局的數據，不包括食品和能源的核心消費者物價指數較 5 月僅上漲 0.1%，為三年來的最小漲幅。在汽油價格下降的推動下，整體消費者物價指數 (CPI) 甚至出現自 Covid-19 大流行開始以來的首次下降。

This deceleration in inflation boosts the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The June CPI reading, along with the "really good" May 2024 report that Fed Chair Jerome Powell described, should give the central bank the confidence needed to start cutting rates soon. Policymakers may signal this possibility when they meet in July, especially as unemployment has risen for three straight months.

通膨放緩增加了聯準會九月降息的可能性。 6 月消費者物價指數 (CPI) 數據，以及聯準會主席鮑威爾 (Jerome Powell) 描述的「非常好」的 2024 年 5 月報告，應該會給央行帶來盡快開始降息所需的信心。政策制定者可能會在 7 月開會時暗示這種可能性，特別是在失業率連續三個月上升的情況下。

While in recent testimony Powell avoided signaling the timing of rate cuts, economists believe the path is now open for the Fed to cut them in September. Treasury yields rallied, and traders priced in September and December rate cuts after the CPI report.

儘管鮑威爾在最近的證詞中避免暗示降息時機，但經濟學家認為，聯準會在 9 月降息的道路現在已經打開。美國公債殖利率上漲，交易員在 CPI 報告發布後預計 9 月和 12 月將降息。

The data also provided encouraging news for President Biden, as he faces calls from Democrats to step aside. Shelter prices, the largest CPI category, had their smallest gain since 2021, and services inflation more broadly cooled. Goods prices have also been declining for most of the past year, providing relief to consumers.

該數據也為拜登總統提供了令人鼓舞的消息，因為他面臨民主黨要求他下台的呼聲。作為 CPI 最大類別的房屋價格出現了 2021 年以來的最小漲幅，而服務業通膨則更廣泛地降溫。去年大部分時間裡，商品價格一直在下降，這讓消費者鬆了一口氣。

However, the June CPI data still showed inflation running above the Fed's 2% target, with the core CPI up 3.3% year-over-year. However, the broad-based slowdown, particularly in housing, suggests that the path to the Fed's goal is becoming clearer.

不過，6月CPI數據仍顯示通膨高於聯準會2%的目標，核心CPI年增3.3%。然而，廣泛的經濟放緩，尤其是房地產領域的放緩，顯示實現聯準會目標的道路變得更加清晰。

Weekly Crypto Highlight — SOL ETF Boosts Market Sentiment; Bitcoin Climbs Back to $59K Ahead of CPI Data

每週加密亮點－SOL ETF 提振市場情緒；比特幣在 CPI 數據公佈前回升至 5.9 萬美元

It’s reasonable to expect that the unexpected drop in June’s U.S. CPI print was priced in before its actual release, as both the cryptocurrency market and broader equity markets had experienced a strong rally prior to Thursday's data announcement.

可以合理地預期，6 月份美國消費者物價指數(CPI) 的意外下跌在其實際發布之前就已被定價，因為在周四的數據公佈之前，加密貨幣市場和更廣泛的股票市場都經歷了強勁反彈。

The highly anticipated approval of ETH Spot ETFs in July hasn’t led to a noticeable outperformance of Ether against Bitcoin. The market believes that Ether will only attract around one-third as much capital as Bitcoin following the official ETF approval.

備受期待的 ETH 現貨 ETF 在 7 月獲得批准，但並未導致以太幣相對於比特幣的表現明顯優於比特幣。市場認為，在 ETF 獲得官方批准後，以太坊吸引的資金量僅為比特幣的三分之一左右。

However, the potential approval of a Solana Spot ETF is still worthy of anticipation due to Solana's long-standing status as an "altcoin." Bitcoin and Ether have always been regarded as commodities by major regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Even Gary Gensler, the current Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), didn’t object to such a classification earlier in his career. Furthermore, ETH Spot ETFs have already been approved in regions such as Hong Kong and Canada. As such, the prospect of Solana Spot ETFs is seen as more "unexpected" than ETH Spot ETFs.

然而，由於 Solana 長期以來作為「山寨幣」的地位，Solana 現貨 ETF 的潛在批准仍然值得期待。比特幣和以太幣一直被包括商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）在內的主要監管機構視為商品。即使是現任美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 在其職業生涯早期也沒有反對這種分類。此外，ETH現貨ETF已在香港、加拿大等地區獲得批准。因此，Solana 現貨 ETF 的前景被視為比 ETH 現貨 ETF 更「出乎意料」。

The potential impact of a Solana Spot ETF listing could be profound, as it could potentially pave the way for the approval of Spot ETFs for many other altcoins.

Solana 現貨 ETF 上市的潛在影響可能是深遠的，因為它可能為許多其他山寨幣現貨 ETF 的批准鋪平道路。

Yet, it’s still too early to reach any definitive conclusions. Currently, only two issuers have filed for a Solana (SOL) Spot ETF — VanEck on June 27, 2024, and 21Shares on June 28. There hasn’t been any clear indication or hint from the regulator on a potential green light for these filings. When reflecting on the past, the approval process for ETH Spot ETFs experienced a notable U-turn when an abrupt change in attitude from the regulator transformed the seemingly impossible event into a solid approval. Given this precedent, it would be premature to make any firm predictions about the outcome of the pending Solana Spot ETF applications. The final decision by the SEC remains uncertain at this stage.

然而，現在得出任何明確的結論還為時過早。目前，只有兩家發行人已提交Solana (SOL) 現貨ETF 申請——VanEck 於2024 年6 月27 日提交申請，21Shares 於6 月28 日提交申請。批准。回顧過去，ETH現貨ETF的審批流程經歷了明顯的180度大轉變，監管機構態度的突然轉變將看似不可能的事件變成了切實的批准。鑑於此先例，對否決的 Solana 現貨 ETF 申請的結果做出任何明確的預測還為時過早。現階段 SEC 的最終決定仍不確定。

Presidential Election Winner 2024 Bet. Source: Polymarket

2024 年總統選舉獲勝者投注。資料來源：Polymarket

Why would the market still dare to dream about this prospect? According to Polymarket's betting ratios, Donald Trump was perceived to be the likely winner of the upcoming November presidential election. Trump is considered a pro-crypto candidate who accepts cryptocurrency donations for his political campaigns. With Trump potentially taking over the White House, the market believes that more crypto-friendly policies might emerge from the administration.

為什麼市場還敢於夢想這樣的前景？根據 Polymarket 的投注比率，唐納德·特朗普被認為是即將到來的 11 月總統選舉的可能獲勝者。川普被認為是支持加密貨幣的候選人，他為他的政治競選活動接受加密貨幣捐款。隨著川普可能入主白宮，市場認為政府可能會推出更多有利於加密貨幣的政策。

However, behind the hype, Solana remains significantly different not only from the Bitcoin blockchain but also from that of Ethereum. In terms of the number of stakeholders, Solana is perceived to have a much higher degree of centralization risk than

然而，在炒作的背後，Solana 不僅與比特幣區塊鏈而且與以太坊區塊鏈仍然存在顯著不同。就利害關係人數量而言，Solana 被認為具有比