机构洞察：每周市场动态（2024 年 7 月 15 日）

我们每周的机构洞察探讨最新的市场发展，包括市场表现、行业新闻、交易所交易基金 (ETF) 流向

Our weekly Institutional Insights explore the latest market developments, including market performance, industry news, ETF flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks, aiming to supercharge your crypto trading.

我们每周的机构洞察探索最新的市场发展，包括市场表现、行业新闻、ETF 流量、趋势主题、即将发生的事件和代币解锁，旨在增强您的加密货币交易。

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

享受我们每周对市场的看法！

Macro Overview — U.S. Inflation’s Unexpected Drop Supports Risky Assets

宏观概览——美国通胀意外下降支撑风险资产

U.S. inflation cooled broadly in June 2024, reaching the slowest pace since 2021 due to a long-awaited slowdown in housing costs. This sends a strong signal that the Federal Reserve may soon be able to cut interest rates.

由于期待已久的住房成本放缓，美国通胀在 2024 年 6 月普遍降温，达到 2021 年以来的最低水平。这发出了一个强烈信号，即美联储可能很快就能降息。

U.S. Consumer Price Index YoY. Source: investing.com

美国消费者价格指数同比。资料来源：investing.com

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, rose just 0.1% from May — the smallest increase in three years. The overall CPI measure even fell for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic began, driven by cheaper gasoline prices.

根据劳工统计局的数据，不包括食品和能源的核心消费者价格指数较 5 月份仅上涨 0.1%，为三年来的最小涨幅。在汽油价格下降的推动下，整体消费者物价指数 (CPI) 甚至出现自 Covid-19 大流行开始以来的首次下降。

This deceleration in inflation boosts the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The June CPI reading, along with the "really good" May 2024 report that Fed Chair Jerome Powell described, should give the central bank the confidence needed to start cutting rates soon. Policymakers may signal this possibility when they meet in July, especially as unemployment has risen for three straight months.

通胀放缓增加了美联储九月降息的可能性。 6 月份消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据，以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 描述的“非常好”的 2024 年 5 月报告，应该会给央行带来尽快开始降息所需的信心。政策制定者可能会在 7 月份开会时暗示这种可能性，特别是在失业率连续三个月上升的情况下。

While in recent testimony Powell avoided signaling the timing of rate cuts, economists believe the path is now open for the Fed to cut them in September. Treasury yields rallied, and traders priced in September and December rate cuts after the CPI report.

尽管鲍威尔在最近的证词中避免暗示降息时机，但经济学家认为，美联储在 9 月份降息的道路现在已经打开。美国国债收益率上涨，交易员在 CPI 报告发布后预计 9 月和 12 月将降息。

The data also provided encouraging news for President Biden, as he faces calls from Democrats to step aside. Shelter prices, the largest CPI category, had their smallest gain since 2021, and services inflation more broadly cooled. Goods prices have also been declining for most of the past year, providing relief to consumers.

该数据也为拜登总统提供了令人鼓舞的消息，因为他面临民主党要求他下台的呼声。作为 CPI 最大类别的住房价格出现了 2021 年以来的最小涨幅，而服务业通胀则更广泛地降温。去年大部分时间里，商品价格一直在下降，这让消费者松了口气。

However, the June CPI data still showed inflation running above the Fed's 2% target, with the core CPI up 3.3% year-over-year. However, the broad-based slowdown, particularly in housing, suggests that the path to the Fed's goal is becoming clearer.

不过，6月CPI数据仍显示通胀高于美联储2%的目标，核心CPI同比上涨3.3%。然而，广泛的经济放缓，尤其是房地产领域的放缓，表明实现美联储目标的道路正变得更加清晰。

Weekly Crypto Highlight — SOL ETF Boosts Market Sentiment; Bitcoin Climbs Back to $59K Ahead of CPI Data

每周加密亮点——SOL ETF 提振市场情绪；比特币在 CPI 数据公布之前回升至 5.9 万美元

It’s reasonable to expect that the unexpected drop in June’s U.S. CPI print was priced in before its actual release, as both the cryptocurrency market and broader equity markets had experienced a strong rally prior to Thursday's data announcement.

可以合理地预期，6 月份美国消费者物价指数 (CPI) 的意外下跌在其实际发布之前就已被定价，因为在周四的数据公布之前，加密货币市场和更广泛的股票市场都经历了强劲反弹。

The highly anticipated approval of ETH Spot ETFs in July hasn’t led to a noticeable outperformance of Ether against Bitcoin. The market believes that Ether will only attract around one-third as much capital as Bitcoin following the official ETF approval.

备受期待的 ETH 现货 ETF 在 7 月份获得批准，但并未导致以太币相对于比特币的表现明显优于比特币。市场认为，在 ETF 获得官方批准后，以太坊吸引的资金量仅为比特币的三分之一左右。

However, the potential approval of a Solana Spot ETF is still worthy of anticipation due to Solana's long-standing status as an "altcoin." Bitcoin and Ether have always been regarded as commodities by major regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Even Gary Gensler, the current Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), didn’t object to such a classification earlier in his career. Furthermore, ETH Spot ETFs have already been approved in regions such as Hong Kong and Canada. As such, the prospect of Solana Spot ETFs is seen as more "unexpected" than ETH Spot ETFs.

然而，由于 Solana 长期以来作为“山寨币”的地位，Solana 现货 ETF 的潜在批准仍然值得期待。比特币和以太币一直被包括商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）在内的主要监管机构视为商品。就连现任美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 在其职业生涯早期也没有反对这种分类。此外，ETH现货ETF已在香港、加拿大等地区获得批准。因此，Solana 现货 ETF 的前景被视为比 ETH 现货 ETF 更“出乎意料”。

The potential impact of a Solana Spot ETF listing could be profound, as it could potentially pave the way for the approval of Spot ETFs for many other altcoins.

Solana 现货 ETF 上市的潜在影响可能是深远的，因为它可能为许多其他山寨币现货 ETF 的批准铺平道路。

Yet, it’s still too early to reach any definitive conclusions. Currently, only two issuers have filed for a Solana (SOL) Spot ETF — VanEck on June 27, 2024, and 21Shares on June 28. There hasn’t been any clear indication or hint from the regulator on a potential green light for these filings. When reflecting on the past, the approval process for ETH Spot ETFs experienced a notable U-turn when an abrupt change in attitude from the regulator transformed the seemingly impossible event into a solid approval. Given this precedent, it would be premature to make any firm predictions about the outcome of the pending Solana Spot ETF applications. The final decision by the SEC remains uncertain at this stage.

然而，现在得出任何明确的结论还为时过早。目前，只有两家发行人已提交 Solana (SOL) 现货 ETF 申请——VanEck 于 2024 年 6 月 27 日提交申请，21Shares 于 6 月 28 日提交申请。监管机构尚未明确表示或暗示这些申请可能会获得批准。 。回顾过去，ETH现货ETF的审批流程经历了明显的180度大转变，监管机构态度的突然转变将看似不可能的事件变成了切实的批准。鉴于这一先例，对待决的 Solana 现货 ETF 申请的结果做出任何明确的预测还为时过早。现阶段 SEC 的最终决定仍不确定。

Presidential Election Winner 2024 Bet. Source: Polymarket

2024 年总统选举获胜者投注。资料来源：Polymarket

Why would the market still dare to dream about this prospect? According to Polymarket's betting ratios, Donald Trump was perceived to be the likely winner of the upcoming November presidential election. Trump is considered a pro-crypto candidate who accepts cryptocurrency donations for his political campaigns. With Trump potentially taking over the White House, the market believes that more crypto-friendly policies might emerge from the administration.

为什么市场还敢于梦想这样的前景？根据 Polymarket 的投注比率，唐纳德·特朗普被认为是即将到来的 11 月总统选举的可能获胜者。特朗普被认为是一位支持加密货币的候选人，他为他的政治竞选活动接受加密货币捐款。随着特朗普可能入主白宫，市场认为政府可能会出台更多有利于加密货币的政策。

However, behind the hype, Solana remains significantly different not only from the Bitcoin blockchain but also from that of Ethereum. In terms of the number of stakeholders, Solana is perceived to have a much higher degree of centralization risk than

然而，在炒作的背后，Solana 不仅与比特币区块链而且与以太坊区块链仍然存在显着不同。就利益相关者数量而言，Solana 被认为具有比