8 月美國總體通膨率為 2.5%

美國勞工統計局（BLS）剛發布了最新的消費者物價指數（CPI）報告，涵蓋截至今年8月底的過去12個月。

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday, revealing that headline inflation has slowed to 2.5% over the year. This marks a significant improvement from July’s 2.9% and the lowest since 2021.

美國勞工統計局 (BLS) 週二發布了最新的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 報告，顯示總體通膨率年內已放緩至 2.5%。這標誌著比 7 月的 2.9% 有了顯著改善，也是自 2021 年以來的最低水準。

The latest numbers also came in slightly lower than analysts’ expectations of 2.6%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes the volatile prices of goods like food and energy, sat at 3.2%.

最新數據也略低於分析師預期的 2.6%。同時，不包括食品和能源等商品價格波動的核心通膨率為 3.2%。

The highest increase in the August report was in the transportation services sector at 7.9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, fuel oil prices fell by 12.1% within the same period, displaying the highest drop in the report.

8月報告中增幅最高的是交通服務業，較去年同期成長7.9%。同時，燃料油價格同期下跌12.1%，創下報告中最高的跌幅。

The latest development sets the tone for the much-anticipated interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17 to 18.

最新進展為即將於 9 月 17 日至 18 日舉行的聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議上備受期待的降息奠定了基調。

Interest Rate Cut Expectation

降息預期

For more than a year, the US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 5.25%- 5.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear that they won’t adjust the figures down until they have “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”

一年多來，聯準會將利率維持在5.25%-5.5%。聯準會主席鮑威爾明確表示，除非他們“更有信心通膨可持續向 2% 邁進”，否則他們不會下調數字。

However, when inflation indicated signs of slowing down last month at less than 3%, Powell eventually softened his tough stance on the subject. During a speech at the Jackson Hole event last month, he stated that “the time has come” for the central bank to lower its rates.

然而，當上個月通膨出現放緩跡象並低於 3% 時，鮑威爾最終軟化了他對這個問題的強硬立場。在上個月傑克森霍爾活動的演講中，他表示央行降低利率的「時機已經到來」。

According to Reuters, interest rate futures contracts priced a 25% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a half-percentage-point next week. Rate markets have priced the cuts at more than 100 basis points (bps) for 2024.

根據路透社報道，利率期貨合約定價聯準會下週降息半個百分點的可能性為 25%。利率市場預計 2024 年降息幅度將超過 100 個基點 (bps)。

Some economists firmly believe that the 25 bps cut would occur as early as the next FOMC meeting.

一些經濟學家堅信，降息 25 個基點最早將在下一次 FOMC 會議上發生。

Effect on Bitcoin

對比特幣的影響

Although there was a sigh of relief in the latest employment data, experts like Stephen Stanley, Santander’s chief US economist, called the data “soft but not disastrous.” This further strengthens the likelihood of a 25 bps cut.

儘管最新的就業數據讓人鬆了一口氣，但桑坦德銀行首席美國經濟學家史蒂芬史丹利等專家稱該數據「疲軟但並非災難性的」。這進一步增強了降息 25 個基點的可能性。

However, QCP Capital does not see the latest CPI data to significantly impact Bitcoin (BTC) due to investors’ concerns centering on the unemployment data. This may sufficiently explain why the latest CPI report failed to yield key price actions in the crypto asset as of 3:00 PM UTC this Wednesday.

然而，由於投資者對失業數據的擔憂，QCP Capital 認為最新的 CPI 數據不會對比特幣（BTC）產生重大影響。這可以充分解釋為什麼最新的 CPI 報告未能得出截至本週三下午 3:00 UTC 的加密資產的關鍵價格走勢。

Despite the anticipation of interest rate cuts in the US, BTC sluggishly moved between a $55,567.34 low and a $58,029.98 high before settling with an over 1% loss on the 24-hour chart at $56.4K this hour.

儘管預期美國會降息，但 BTC 在 55,567.34 美元低點和 58,029.98 美元高點之間緩慢移動，隨後在 24 小時圖表上下跌超過 1%，至 56.4K 美元。