8 月份美国总体通胀率为 2.5%

美国劳工统计局（BLS）刚刚发布了最新的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，涵盖截至今年8月底的过去12个月。

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday, revealing that headline inflation has slowed to 2.5% over the year. This marks a significant improvement from July’s 2.9% and the lowest since 2021.

美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 周二发布了最新的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 报告，显示总体通胀率年内已放缓至 2.5%。这标志着比 7 月份的 2.9% 有了显着改善，也是 2021 年以来的最低水平。

The latest numbers also came in slightly lower than analysts’ expectations of 2.6%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes the volatile prices of goods like food and energy, sat at 3.2%.

最新数据也略低于分析师预期的 2.6%。与此同时，不包括食品和能源等商品价格波动的核心通胀率为 3.2%。

The highest increase in the August report was in the transportation services sector at 7.9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, fuel oil prices fell by 12.1% within the same period, displaying the highest drop in the report.

8月报告中增幅最高的是交通服务业，同比增长7.9%。与此同时，燃料油价格同期下跌12.1%，创下报告中的最高跌幅。

The latest development sets the tone for the much-anticipated interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17 to 18.

最新进展为即将于 9 月 17 日至 18 日举行的联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议上备受期待的降息奠定了基调。

Interest Rate Cut Expectation

降息预期

For more than a year, the US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 5.25%- 5.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear that they won’t adjust the figures down until they have “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”

一年多来，美联储将利率维持在5.25%-5.5%。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示，除非他们“更有信心通胀可持续向 2% 迈进”，否则他们不会下调数字。

However, when inflation indicated signs of slowing down last month at less than 3%, Powell eventually softened his tough stance on the subject. During a speech at the Jackson Hole event last month, he stated that “the time has come” for the central bank to lower its rates.

然而，当上个月通胀出现放缓迹象并低于 3% 时，鲍威尔最终软化了他在这个问题上的强硬立场。在上个月杰克逊霍尔活动的演讲中，他表示央行降低利率的“时机已经到来”。

According to Reuters, interest rate futures contracts priced a 25% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a half-percentage-point next week. Rate markets have priced the cuts at more than 100 basis points (bps) for 2024.

据路透社报道，利率期货合约定价美联储下周降息半个百分点的可能性为 25%。利率市场预计 2024 年降息幅度将超过 100 个基点 (bps)。

Some economists firmly believe that the 25 bps cut would occur as early as the next FOMC meeting.

一些经济学家坚信，降息 25 个基点最早将在下一次 FOMC 会议上发生。

Effect on Bitcoin

对比特币的影响

Although there was a sigh of relief in the latest employment data, experts like Stephen Stanley, Santander’s chief US economist, called the data “soft but not disastrous.” This further strengthens the likelihood of a 25 bps cut.

尽管最新的就业数据让人松了一口气，但桑坦德银行首席美国经济学家史蒂芬·斯坦利等专家称该数据“疲软但并非灾难性的”。这进一步增强了降息 25 个基点的可能性。

However, QCP Capital does not see the latest CPI data to significantly impact Bitcoin (BTC) due to investors’ concerns centering on the unemployment data. This may sufficiently explain why the latest CPI report failed to yield key price actions in the crypto asset as of 3:00 PM UTC this Wednesday.

然而，由于投资者对失业数据的担忧，QCP Capital 认为最新的 CPI 数据不会对比特币（BTC）产生重大影响。这可以充分解释为什么最新的 CPI 报告未能得出截至本周三下午 3:00 UTC 的加密资产的关键价格走势。

Despite the anticipation of interest rate cuts in the US, BTC sluggishly moved between a $55,567.34 low and a $58,029.98 high before settling with an over 1% loss on the 24-hour chart at $56.4K this hour.

尽管预期美国会降息，但 BTC 在 55,567.34 美元低点和 58,029.98 美元高点之间缓慢移动，随后在 24 小时图表上下跌超过 1%，至 56.4K 美元。