第四個比特幣減半事件是否證明是加密貨幣及其估值的積極催化劑？

去年，比特幣（BTC -0.59％）的價值超過100,000美元。第四個比特幣減半事件是否證明是加密貨幣及其估值的積極催化劑？

The fourth Bitcoin halving event took place on April 19. Afterward, the price of Bitcoin (BTC -0.59%) continued to rise, eventually hitting a value of more than $100,000 for the first time ever.

第四次比特幣減半活動發生在4月19日。之後，比特幣（BTC -0.59％）的價格繼續上漲，最終首次達到了超過100,000美元的價值。

As the reward of Bitcoin mining is halved every four years, it slows down the rate at which new tokens enter circulation, thereby helping maintain Bitcoin's scarcity. This is said to be the cryptocurrency's biggest selling point.

隨著比特幣開采的獎勵每四年減半，它降低了新令牌進入流通的速度，從而有助於維持比特幣的稀缺性。據說這是加密貨幣的最大賣點。

With Bitcoin's scarcity being no secret and the halving event already planned, it was priced into the digital currency's valuation even before it happened.

由於比特幣的稀缺性並不是秘密，並且已經計劃了減半的事件，因此甚至在數字貨幣發生之前就被定價為數字貨幣的估值。

Of course, investors often buy an asset in anticipation of an event that they believe will have a positive impact on its valuation. But did that happen ahead of the last halving, which occurred on April 19? Here's a look at Bitcoin's price in the months following the event.

當然，投資者經常購買資產，因為他們認為這將對其估值產生積極影響。但是，這是在4月19日發生的最後一個減半之前發生的嗎？這是活動結束後的幾個月中比特幣的價格。

Calculations by the author. Source: Yahoo! Finance.

作者的計算。資料來源：Yahoo！金融。

As evident from the chart above, Bitcoin's price began rising only after Donald Trump, who campaigned as a crypto-friendly president, won a second term.

從上圖可以明顯看出，只有在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）競選以加密貨幣友好的總統競選後，比特幣的價格才開始上漲。

Before the election results were announced, there was speculation that a second Trump term could be bad news for the stock market as it would likely bring an end to the bull market in U.S. equities. However, that view didn't take into account the fact that Trump’s presidency had already been good for the S&P 500.

在宣布選舉結果之前，有人猜測，第二個特朗普的任期可能是股票市場的壞消息，因為這很可能會終結美國股票的牛市。但是，這種觀點並沒有考慮到特朗普總統職位對標準普爾500指數有益的事實。

After eight years of a Democratic president, who typically favor more regulations, the U.S. was due for a change in administration. Meanwhile, President Biden had already set about tightening financial regulations, most notably with the collapse of several major banks in early 2024.

經過八年的民主黨總統，他們通常贊成更多的法規，美國應發生變化。同時，拜登總統已經著手收緊金融法規，最值得注意的是，隨著2024年初的幾家主要銀行倒閉。

In contrast, Trump had campaigned on a promise to maintain a light touch when it came to cryptocurrencies. He was also open to the idea of setting up a bitcoin standard and pivoting the U.S. economy toward using the cryptocurrency.

相比之下，特朗普競選諾言，在加密貨幣方面保持了輕微的聯繫。他還對建立比特幣標準並將美國經濟轉向使用加密貨幣的想法開放。

Of course, Trump’s administration was already pivoting the U.S. toward using less oil and setting up a carbon tax. These measures, which were announced during his first term, were also said to be part of his plan for a second term.

當然，特朗普的政府已經使美國朝著使用較少的石油和設定碳稅。這些措施在他的第一任期內宣布，也據說是他在第二學期計劃的一部分。

In addition, Trump had spoken about setting up a bitcoin reserve with other countries, an idea that he said was in the works.

此外，特朗普談到了與其他國家建立比特幣儲備，這一想法是他說的。

Now, it seems ironic that the president known for his love of tariffs and trade wars would be the one to set up a bitcoin reserve with other nations. But that's exactly what he said he was planning to do.

現在，具有諷刺意味的是，總統以對關稅和貿易戰爭的熱愛而聞名，這將是與其他國家建立比特幣儲備的人。但這正是他所說的打算做的。

In a statement to the media, Trump said: "We're going to be setting up a bitcoin reserve with some of our allies, and we're also going to be discussing the possibility of setting up a carbon tax with them."

特朗普在給媒體的一份聲明中說：“我們將與我們的一些盟友建立比特幣儲備金，我們還將討論與他們提出碳稅的可能性。”

The president added that he believed both measures would be in the best interests of the U.S. economy.

總統補充說，他認為這兩種措施都符合美國經濟的最大利益。

"We need to be doing everything we can to support our economy, and I believe that both of these measures would do just that," Trump said.

特朗普說：“我們需要竭盡所能支持我們的經濟，我相信這兩種措施都會做到這一點。”

"We're going to be talking to China, Russia, and other major economic powers about this. And I think we can reach an agreement that would be beneficial for everyone involved."

“我們將與中國，俄羅斯和其他主要的經濟大國交談。我認為我們可以達成一項協議，這對參與的每個人都有益。”

The president's comments came after he met with officials from several Asian nations at the White House.

總統的評論發表在他與白宮幾個亞洲國家的官員會面之後。

During the meeting, Trump said he was optimistic that the U.S. could reach an agreement with China on trade, despite the recent escalation of tensions between the two superpowers.

在會議上，特朗普表示，儘管最近兩個超級大國之間的緊張局勢升級，但他對美國可以與中國達成協議感到樂觀。

"I'm feeling very good about our trade talks with China," Trump said.

特朗普說：“我對與中國的貿易談判感到非常滿意。”

"We had a very productive conversation today, and I think we're making progress."

“今天我們進行了非常有生產力的對話，我認為我們正在取得進步。”

Trump said he was also hopeful that the U.S. could make progress on other issues with China, such as cybersecurity and North Korea's nuclear program.

特朗普說，他也希望美國能夠在中國的其他問題上取得進展，例如網絡安全和朝鮮的核計劃。

"We have a lot of common ground with China, and I think we can work together to solve some of the world's most pressing problems," Trump said.

特朗普說：“我們與中國有很多共同點，我認為我們可以共同解決一些世界上最緊迫的問題。”

The president's remarks came as the S&P 500 hit a record high, rising 0.4% on Thursday. The index had already risen more than 100% since Trump took office in early 2017.

總統的講話是因為標準普爾500指數創下了創紀錄的高度，週四上漲了0.4％。自特朗普於2017年初上任以來，該指數已經上升了100％以上。

The president's comments also came as investors were closely watching for signs of inflation in the U.S. economy.

當投資者密切關注美國經濟通貨膨脹的跡象時，總統的評論也發表了。

Earlier this week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, rose 0.3% in April, less than economists had expected.

本週早些時候，一項關鍵通貨膨脹量度的消費者價格指數（CPI）在四月份上漲了0.3％，少於經濟學家的預期。

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, in line with economists' estimates.

不包括波動性食品和能源價格的核心CPI符合經濟學家的估計，上漲了0.2％。

The modest increase in inflation came after a 0.4% rise in the CPI in March.

3月份CPI增長0.4％後，通貨膨脹率的增加。

The low level of inflation had helped to keep interest rates low and support economic growth. However

低水平的通貨膨脹有助於使利率保持較低並支持經濟增長。然而