第四个比特币减半事件是否证明是加密货币及其估值的积极催化剂？

去年，比特币（BTC -0.59％）的价值超过100,000美元。第四个比特币减半事件是否证明是加密货币及其估值的积极催化剂？

The fourth Bitcoin halving event took place on April 19. Afterward, the price of Bitcoin (BTC -0.59%) continued to rise, eventually hitting a value of more than $100,000 for the first time ever.

第四次比特币减半活动发生在4月19日。之后，比特币（BTC -0.59％）的价格继续上涨，最终首次达到了超过100,000美元的价值。

As the reward of Bitcoin mining is halved every four years, it slows down the rate at which new tokens enter circulation, thereby helping maintain Bitcoin's scarcity. This is said to be the cryptocurrency's biggest selling point.

随着比特币开采的奖励每四年减半，它降低了新令牌进入流通的速度，从而有助于维持比特币的稀缺性。据说这是加密货币的最大卖点。

With Bitcoin's scarcity being no secret and the halving event already planned, it was priced into the digital currency's valuation even before it happened.

由于比特币的稀缺性并不是秘密，并且已经计划了减半的事件，因此甚至在数字货币发生之前就被定价为数字货币的估值。

Of course, investors often buy an asset in anticipation of an event that they believe will have a positive impact on its valuation. But did that happen ahead of the last halving, which occurred on April 19? Here's a look at Bitcoin's price in the months following the event.

当然，投资者经常购买资产，因为他们认为这将对其估值产生积极影响。但是，这是在4月19日发生的最后一个减半之前发生的吗？这是活动结束后的几个月中比特币的价格。

Calculations by the author. Source: Yahoo! Finance.

作者的计算。资料来源：Yahoo！金融。

As evident from the chart above, Bitcoin's price began rising only after Donald Trump, who campaigned as a crypto-friendly president, won a second term.

从上图可以明显看出，只有在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）竞选以加密货币友好的总统竞选后，比特币的价格才开始上涨。

Before the election results were announced, there was speculation that a second Trump term could be bad news for the stock market as it would likely bring an end to the bull market in U.S. equities. However, that view didn't take into account the fact that Trump’s presidency had already been good for the S&P 500.

在宣布选举结果之前，有人猜测，第二个特朗普的任期可能是股票市场的坏消息，因为这很可能会终结美国股票的牛市。但是，这种观点并没有考虑到特朗普总统职位对标准普尔500指数有益的事实。

After eight years of a Democratic president, who typically favor more regulations, the U.S. was due for a change in administration. Meanwhile, President Biden had already set about tightening financial regulations, most notably with the collapse of several major banks in early 2024.

经过八年的民主党总统，他们通常赞成更多的法规，美国应发生变化。同时，拜登总统已经着手收紧金融法规，最值得注意的是，随着2024年初的几家主要银行倒闭。

In contrast, Trump had campaigned on a promise to maintain a light touch when it came to cryptocurrencies. He was also open to the idea of setting up a bitcoin standard and pivoting the U.S. economy toward using the cryptocurrency.

相比之下，特朗普竞选诺言，在加密货币方面保持了轻微的联系。他还对建立比特币标准并将美国经济转向使用加密货币的想法开放。

Of course, Trump’s administration was already pivoting the U.S. toward using less oil and setting up a carbon tax. These measures, which were announced during his first term, were also said to be part of his plan for a second term.

当然，特朗普的政府已经使美国朝着使用较少的石油和设定碳税。这些措施在他的第一任期内宣布，也据说是他在第二学期计划的一部分。

In addition, Trump had spoken about setting up a bitcoin reserve with other countries, an idea that he said was in the works.

此外，特朗普谈到了与其他国家建立比特币储备，这一想法是他说的。

Now, it seems ironic that the president known for his love of tariffs and trade wars would be the one to set up a bitcoin reserve with other nations. But that's exactly what he said he was planning to do.

现在，具有讽刺意味的是，总统以对关税和贸易战争的热爱而闻名，这将是与其他国家建立比特币储备的人。但这正是他所说的打算做的。

In a statement to the media, Trump said: "We're going to be setting up a bitcoin reserve with some of our allies, and we're also going to be discussing the possibility of setting up a carbon tax with them."

特朗普在给媒体的一份声明中说：“我们将与我们的一些盟友建立比特币储备金，我们还将讨论与他们提出碳税的可能性。”

The president added that he believed both measures would be in the best interests of the U.S. economy.

总统补充说，他认为这两种措施都符合美国经济的最大利益。

"We need to be doing everything we can to support our economy, and I believe that both of these measures would do just that," Trump said.

特朗普说：“我们需要竭尽所能支持我们的经济，我相信这两种措施都会做到这一点。”

"We're going to be talking to China, Russia, and other major economic powers about this. And I think we can reach an agreement that would be beneficial for everyone involved."

“我们将与中国，俄罗斯和其他主要的经济大国交谈。我认为我们可以达成一项协议，这对参与的每个人都有益。”

The president's comments came after he met with officials from several Asian nations at the White House.

总统的评论发表在他与白宫几个亚洲国家的官员会面之后。

During the meeting, Trump said he was optimistic that the U.S. could reach an agreement with China on trade, despite the recent escalation of tensions between the two superpowers.

在会议上，特朗普表示，尽管最近两个超级大国之间的紧张局势升级，但他对美国可以与中国达成协议感到乐观。

"I'm feeling very good about our trade talks with China," Trump said.

特朗普说：“我对与中国的贸易谈判感到非常满意。”

"We had a very productive conversation today, and I think we're making progress."

“今天我们进行了非常有生产力的对话，我认为我们正在取得进步。”

Trump said he was also hopeful that the U.S. could make progress on other issues with China, such as cybersecurity and North Korea's nuclear program.

特朗普说，他也希望美国能够在中国的其他问题上取得进展，例如网络安全和朝鲜的核计划。

"We have a lot of common ground with China, and I think we can work together to solve some of the world's most pressing problems," Trump said.

特朗普说：“我们与中国有很多共同点，我认为我们可以共同解决一些世界上最紧迫的问题。”

The president's remarks came as the S&P 500 hit a record high, rising 0.4% on Thursday. The index had already risen more than 100% since Trump took office in early 2017.

总统的讲话是因为标准普尔500指数创下了创纪录的高度，周四上涨了0.4％。自特朗普于2017年初上任以来，该指数已经上升了100％以上。

The president's comments also came as investors were closely watching for signs of inflation in the U.S. economy.

当投资者密切关注美国经济通货膨胀的迹象时，总统的评论也发表了。

Earlier this week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, rose 0.3% in April, less than economists had expected.

本周早些时候，一项关键通货膨胀量度的消费者价格指数（CPI）在四月份上涨了0.3％，少于经济学家的预期。

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, in line with economists' estimates.

不包括波动性食品和能源价格的核心CPI符合经济学家的估计，上涨了0.2％。

The modest increase in inflation came after a 0.4% rise in the CPI in March.

3月份CPI增长0.4％后，通货膨胀率的增加。

The low level of inflation had helped to keep interest rates low and support economic growth. However

低水平的通货膨胀有助于使利率保持较低并支持经济增长。然而