美聯儲可能會暫停率，但會注入流動性。加密可以作為衰退對沖。

美國美聯儲公開市場委員會（FOMC）5月7日的利率決定將是風險登機資產（包括加密貨幣）的決定性時刻。

The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on May 7 will be a crucial factor for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. While economists polled by Dow Jones expect no change in interest rates, any action by the US Treasury to inject liquidity into markets to stave off an economic recession could boost Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins.

美國美聯儲開放式市場委員會（FOMC）的利率決定將是包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產的關鍵因素。儘管道瓊斯進行了調查的經濟學家預計不會有任何利率變化，但美國財政部的任何行動都將流動性注入市場以避免經濟衰退，這可能會增強比特幣（BTC）和Altcoins。

A more accommodative monetary policy could be beneficial for economic activity, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also grappling with a weakening US dollar and persistent recession risks, which could create an ideal environment for alternative hedge assets such as cryptocurrencies.

更寬鬆的貨幣政策可能對經濟活動有益，但是美聯儲（美聯儲）也正在努力應對美元和持續的衰退風險，這可能為諸如加密貨幣之類的替代對沖資產創造理想的環境。

Economist and investor Jim Paulsen points out that when Fed funds trade above a “neutral” interest rate (calculated as Fed Funds minus the annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index), the economy has historically moved toward recession or a “growth recession,” characterized by sluggish growth, rising unemployment, and weak consumer demand. Examining periods of above-neutral interest rates since 1971 reveals similar patterns.

經濟學家和投資者吉姆·保爾森（Jim Paulsen）指出，當美聯儲資金貿易高於“中性”利率（以美聯儲的資金計算，減去年度核心個人消費支出指數）時，經濟歷史上已經朝著經濟衰退或“增長衰退”邁進，其特徵在於疲軟的增長，以增長的增長和消費者的需求較弱。自1971年以來，檢查上立利率上立的時期揭示了相似的模式。

According to Paulsen, the Fed will likely be forced to lower interest rates further, and central bank Chair Jerome Powell is facing pressure from US President Donald Trump to reduce the cost of capital more quickly. Trump has criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates rapidly enough to stimulate the economy.

據保爾森稱，美聯儲可能會被迫進一步降低利率，中央銀行主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）面臨美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的壓力，要求更快地降低資本成本。特朗普批評美聯儲沒有迅速降低利率以刺激經濟。

However, despite the urgency, the Fed is still contending with signals of a strong labor market and consumer spending, which could deter the central bank from pivoting toward rate cuts.

然而，儘管緊迫，美聯儲仍在爭奪強勁的勞動力市場和消費者支出的信號，這可能會阻止中央銀行向削減速度降級。

Concerns about overheated markets also remain as the US consumer inflation rate hovers above the 2% target, and April unemployment claims data suggest no signs of economic weakness.

由於美國消費通貨膨脹率徘徊在2％的目標之上，對過熱市場的擔憂也仍然存在，而四月失業索賠數據數據沒有表明經濟疲軟的跡象。

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation edged up to 3.2% year-over-year in April, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.

4月份，消費者價格指數（CPI）的通貨膨脹率同比增長3.2％，而失業率仍為4.2％。

Market expectations, as indicated by Treasury yield futures, suggest a 76% chance of interest rates at 4.0% or lower by Sept. 17. This probability has decreased significantly from 90% on April 29, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

據CME Group的FedWatch工具稱，到9月17日，預期的市場預期，如美國財政部收益期貨期貨，這表明利率為76％，為4.0％或降低。根據CME集團的FedWatch工具，這種概率已從4月29日的90％顯著下降。

Bank traders are becoming less confident that the Fed will ease monetary policy. While this may initially seem bearish for risk assets, it could prompt the Treasury to inject liquidity into markets to support government spending.

銀行交易者對美聯儲將減輕貨幣政策的信心越來越不信心。儘管最初可能對風險資產看跌，但它可能會促使財政部向市場注入流動性以支持政府支出。

Regardless of the FOMC's decision, some analysts note that the Fed's recent $20.5 billion Treasury bond purchase on May 5 signals renewed intervention.

不管FOMC的決定是什麼，一些分析師都指出，美聯儲最近在5月5日購買的200億美元債券購買了重新干預。

Historically, additional liquidity has been bullish for cryptocurrencies, especially as the US dollar lags behind other major global currencies, prompting investors to seek alternative hedges rather than holding cash.

從歷史上看，額外的流動性是對加密貨幣的看漲，尤其是當美元落後於其他主要全球貨幣時，促使投資者尋求替代套期保值而不是持有現金。

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major rivals, has dropped below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023 as investors are pulling back from US markets amid economic uncertainty.

美元指數（DXY）衡量了針對六個主要競爭對手的綠色冠軍，自2023年7月以來，由於經濟不確定性，投資者從美國市場退縮，這是自2023年7月以來首次降至100張。

On the other hand, gold prices have surged over 12% in the past 30 days and are now trading just 2% below their all-time high of $3,500. This shift in favor of scarce assets may be due to decreasing confidence in the US Treasury's ability to finance its debt.

另一方面，過去30天的黃金價格上漲了12％以上，現在的交易僅比其歷史最高售價3,500美元低2％。這種轉變支持稀缺資產可能是由於對美國財政部資助債務能力的信心降低了。

While the probability of multiple rate cuts has decreased, this scenario would still be advantageous for cryptocurrencies. If the Fed is pressured to expand its balance sheet, it would likely fuel inflation and erode the value of fixed-income investment factors that ultimately provide support for crypto prices.

雖然削減率的概率有所下降，但這種情況對於加密貨幣仍然有利。如果向美聯儲施加壓力以擴大資產負債表，則可能會加油並侵蝕固定收益投資因素的價值，最終為加密價格提供支持。