美联储可能会暂停率，但会注入流动性。加密可以作为衰退对冲。

美国美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）5月7日的利率决定将是风险登机资产（包括加密货币）的决定性时刻。

The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on May 7 will be a crucial factor for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. While economists polled by Dow Jones expect no change in interest rates, any action by the US Treasury to inject liquidity into markets to stave off an economic recession could boost Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins.

美国美联储开放式市场委员会（FOMC）的利率决定将是包括加密货币在内的风险资产的关键因素。尽管道琼斯进行了调查的经济学家预计不会有任何利率变化，但美国财政部的任何行动都将流动性注入市场以避免经济衰退，这可能会增强比特币（BTC）和Altcoins。

A more accommodative monetary policy could be beneficial for economic activity, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also grappling with a weakening US dollar and persistent recession risks, which could create an ideal environment for alternative hedge assets such as cryptocurrencies.

更宽松的货币政策可能对经济活动有益，但是美联储（美联储）也正在努力应对美元和持续的衰退风险，这可能为诸如加密货币之类的替代对冲资产创造理想的环境。

Economist and investor Jim Paulsen points out that when Fed funds trade above a “neutral” interest rate (calculated as Fed Funds minus the annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index), the economy has historically moved toward recession or a “growth recession,” characterized by sluggish growth, rising unemployment, and weak consumer demand. Examining periods of above-neutral interest rates since 1971 reveals similar patterns.

经济学家和投资者吉姆·保尔森（Jim Paulsen）指出，当美联储资金贸易高于“中性”利率（以美联储的资金计算，减去年度核心个人消费支出指数）时，经济历史上已经朝着经济衰退或“增长衰退”迈进，其特征在于疲软的增长，以增长的增长和消费者的需求较弱。自1971年以来，检查上立利率上立的时期揭示了相似的模式。

According to Paulsen, the Fed will likely be forced to lower interest rates further, and central bank Chair Jerome Powell is facing pressure from US President Donald Trump to reduce the cost of capital more quickly. Trump has criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates rapidly enough to stimulate the economy.

据保尔森称，美联储可能会被迫进一步降低利率，中央银行主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）面临美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的压力，要求更快地降低资本成本。特朗普批评美联储没有迅速降低利率以刺激经济。

However, despite the urgency, the Fed is still contending with signals of a strong labor market and consumer spending, which could deter the central bank from pivoting toward rate cuts.

然而，尽管紧迫，美联储仍在争夺强劲的劳动力市场和消费者支出的信号，这可能会阻止中央银行向削减速度降级。

Concerns about overheated markets also remain as the US consumer inflation rate hovers above the 2% target, and April unemployment claims data suggest no signs of economic weakness.

由于美国消费通货膨胀率徘徊在2％的目标之上，对过热市场的担忧也仍然存在，而四月失业索赔数据数据没有表明经济疲软的迹象。

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation edged up to 3.2% year-over-year in April, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.

4月份，消费者价格指数（CPI）的通货膨胀率同比增长3.2％，而失业率仍为4.2％。

Market expectations, as indicated by Treasury yield futures, suggest a 76% chance of interest rates at 4.0% or lower by Sept. 17. This probability has decreased significantly from 90% on April 29, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

据CME Group的FedWatch工具称，到9月17日，预期的市场预期，如美国财政部收益期货期货，这表明利率为76％，为4.0％或降低。根据CME集团的FedWatch工具，这种概率已从4月29日的90％显着下降。

Bank traders are becoming less confident that the Fed will ease monetary policy. While this may initially seem bearish for risk assets, it could prompt the Treasury to inject liquidity into markets to support government spending.

银行交易者对美联储将减轻货币政策的信心越来越不信心。尽管最初可能对风险资产看跌，但它可能会促使财政部向市场注入流动性以支持政府支出。

Regardless of the FOMC's decision, some analysts note that the Fed's recent $20.5 billion Treasury bond purchase on May 5 signals renewed intervention.

不管FOMC的决定是什么，一些分析师都指出，美联储最近在5月5日购买的200亿美元债券购买了重新干预。

Historically, additional liquidity has been bullish for cryptocurrencies, especially as the US dollar lags behind other major global currencies, prompting investors to seek alternative hedges rather than holding cash.

从历史上看，额外的流动性是对加密货币的看涨，尤其是当美元落后于其他主要全球货币时，促使投资者寻求替代套期保值而不是持有现金。

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major rivals, has dropped below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023 as investors are pulling back from US markets amid economic uncertainty.

美元指数（DXY）衡量了针对六个主要竞争对手的绿色冠军，自2023年7月以来，由于经济不确定性，投资者从美国市场退缩，这是自2023年7月以来首次降至100张。

On the other hand, gold prices have surged over 12% in the past 30 days and are now trading just 2% below their all-time high of $3,500. This shift in favor of scarce assets may be due to decreasing confidence in the US Treasury's ability to finance its debt.

另一方面，过去30天的黄金价格上涨了12％以上，现在的交易仅比其历史最高售价3,500美元低2％。这种转变支持稀缺资产可能是由于对美国财政部资助债务能力的信心降低了。

While the probability of multiple rate cuts has decreased, this scenario would still be advantageous for cryptocurrencies. If the Fed is pressured to expand its balance sheet, it would likely fuel inflation and erode the value of fixed-income investment factors that ultimately provide support for crypto prices.

虽然削减率的概率有所下降，但这种情况对于加密货币仍然有利。如果向美联储施加压力以扩大资产负债表，则可能会加油并侵蚀固定收益投资因素的价值，最终为加密价格提供支持。