聯準會降息 50 個基點：這對比特幣意味著什麼？

市場觀察家密切關注聯準會最近降息 50 個基點對比特幣和更廣泛的加密市場的潛在影響。

The recent 50 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve has sparked interest among market observers, who are keeping an eye on its potential impact on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

聯準會最近降息 50 個基點 (bps) 引發了市場觀察家的興趣，他們正在密切關注其對比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的潛在影響。

After raising interest rates seven times in 2022 to combat persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve shifted gears and cut rates for the first time in four years. The central bank reduced its target range by 50 bps, bringing it down to 4.75%–5%. This move was more aggressive than the widely anticipated 25 bps rate cut.

聯準會在 2022 年七次升息以應對持續高企的通膨後，四年來首次轉變策略並降息。央行將目標區間下調 50 個基點，降至 4.75%–5%。此舉比普遍預期的 25 個基點降息更為激進。

The rate cut decision was influenced by several factors, including a slight decrease in inflation, which had reached 40-year highs earlier in 2022. However, inflation remained above the central bank’s 2% target, and the unemployment rate continued to fall, reaching 3.5% in December.

降息決定受到多種因素影響，其中包括通膨小幅下降，通膨在2022年早些時候曾達到40年來的高點。 %。

While lower interest rates are typically considered favorable for riskier assets like Bitcoin, the current macroeconomic environment is more complex, making it difficult to predict the precise impact on cryptocurrencies.

雖然較低的利率通常被認為有利於比特幣等風險較高的資產，但當前的宏觀經濟環境更加複雜，因此很難預測對加密貨幣的準確影響。

A recent analysis by crypto data platform Lookonchain highlighted the historical relationship between Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and hikes and their impact on the price of Bitcoin over the past decade.

加密資料平台 Lookonchain 最近的一項分析強調了過去十年聯準會降息和升息之間的歷史關係及其對比特幣價格的影響。

During periods of lower interest rates, Bitcoin has tended to perform well. For example, between early 2020 and late 2021, the Federal Reserve slashed rates to near zero to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, Bitcoin experienced one of its most significant bull runs.

在利率較低的時期，比特幣往往表現良好。例如，在 2020 年初至 2021 年底期間，聯準會將利率削減至接近零，以應對 COVID-19 大流行造成的經濟影響。在此期間，比特幣經歷了最重要的牛市之一。

As the pandemic hit and the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates, Bitcoin began to rally. From around $3,850 in March 2020, the price of BTC soared to its all-time high of $69,000 by November 2021.

隨著疫情的爆發和聯準會大幅降息，比特幣開始反彈。 BTC 的價格從 2020 年 3 月的 3,850 美元左右飆升至 2021 年 11 月的歷史新高 69,000 美元。

This surge was driven by several factors, including easy access to capital, increased risk appetite, and a weakening U.S. dollar, which made Bitcoin more attractive to investors. Lower interest rates also reduced the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like bonds, which offered lower yields, shifting investor interest toward cryptocurrencies.

這種飆升是由多種因素推動的，包括容易獲得資本、風險偏好增加以及美元疲軟，這使得比特幣對投資者更具吸引力。較低的利率也降低了債券等傳統避險資產的吸引力，這些資產的收益率較低，從而將投資者的興趣轉向加密貨幣。

However, the economic landscape in 2024 differs significantly from that period. While the rate cut may initially spark some renewed interest in Bitcoin, the broader context is vastly different from previous years.

然而，2024年的經濟格局與那個時期有很大不同。雖然降息最初可能會引發人們對比特幣的一些新興趣，但更廣泛的背景與前幾年有很大不同。

In contrast to the stimulus-heavy environment during the pandemic, the Federal Reserve spent much of 2022 and 2023 hiking rates to combat inflation, which remained a primary concern.

與疫情期間大力實施刺激的環境形成鮮明對比的是，聯準會在 2022 年和 2023 年的大部分時間裡都在升息，以應對通貨膨脹，這仍然是主要問題。

During the rate-hiking cycle that began in early 2022, Bitcoin’s price fell from its 2021 peak, struggling to maintain momentum as higher borrowing costs and rising inflation reduced liquidity in the market.

在 2022 年初開始的升息週期中，比特幣的價格從 2021 年的高峰下跌，由於借貸成本上升和通膨上升減少了市場流動性，比特幣的價格難以維持勢頭。

As interest rates rose, investors pulled away from speculative assets like Bitcoin and opted for safer, interest-bearing investments. Now that the Federal Reserve has pivoted back to rate cuts, there is cautious optimism about the potential for Bitcoin to rally once again. However, some analysts have advised caution amid the bullish sentiments.

隨著利率上升，投資人撤出比特幣等投機資產，轉而選擇更安全、有息的投資。現在聯準會已經轉向降息，人們對比特幣再次反彈的潛力持謹慎樂觀態度。然而，一些分析師建議在看漲情緒中保持謹慎。

One key difference is that interest rates, even after the cut, remain well above the near-zero levels seen during the pandemic. Furthermore, the crypto market has matured since 2020, with more institutional investors who are likely to adopt a more conservative approach.

一個關鍵的區別是，即使在降息之後，利率仍遠高於大流行期間接近零的水平。此外，加密貨幣市場自 2020 年以來已趨於成熟，更多機構投資者可能會採取更保守的做法。

In addition, the latest rate cut is more aggressive than the popular projection of a 25 bps rate. Notably, in 2001 and 2007, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by at least 0.5%, the S&P 500 collapsed as risk assets dropped, unemployment rate spiked and the economy entered a recession.

此外，最新的降息幅度比普遍預測的 25 個基點更為激進。值得注意的是，在2001年和2007年，當聯準會降息至少0.5%時，隨著風險資產下降、失業率飆升、經濟進入衰退，標準普爾500指數崩潰。

Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+ bps:

過去兩次聯準會首次降息幅度超過 50 個基點：

?Jan 3, 2001 - S&P 500 fell ~39% next 448 days

?2001 年 1 月 3 日 - 接下來 448 天標準普爾 500 指數下跌約 39%

- Unemployment rose another 2.1%

- 失業率再上升 2.1%

- Recession

- 經濟衰退

?Sep 18, 2007 - S&P 500 fell ~54% next 372 days

?2007 年 9 月 18 日 - 接下來 372 天標準普爾 500 指數下跌約 54%

- Unemployment rose another 5.3%

- 失業率再上升 5.3%

- Recession

- 經濟衰退

?Sep 18, 2024 - ?

?2024 年 9 月 18 日 - ？

- ?

- ？

- ?

- ？

While a 50 bps rate cut may be bullish for some assets, it’s crucial to proceed with caution, especially in the stock market.

雖然降息 50 個基點可能對某些資產有利，但謹慎行事至關重要，尤其是在股市。

After the first rate cut of 2024, several market participants expressed optimism about a potential bull market for Bitcoin. However, some, like renowned crypto skeptic Peter Schiff, remained unconvinced.

2024年首次降息後，一些市場參與者對比特幣潛在的多頭市場表示樂觀。然而，有些人，例如著名的加密貨幣懷疑論者 Peter Schiff，仍然不相信。

“After the first Fed rate cut of 2024, several market participants are predicting a bull market for Bitcoin. But don’t get too excited. Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+

「在 2024 年聯準會首次降息之後，一些市場參與者預測比特幣將迎來牛市。但不要太興奮。最近2次聯準會首次降息幅度都在50+