美联储降息 50 个基点：这对比特币意味着什么？

市场观察人士密切关注美联储最近降息 50 个基点对比特币和更广泛的加密市场的潜在影响。

The recent 50 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve has sparked interest among market observers, who are keeping an eye on its potential impact on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

美联储最近降息 50 个基点 (bps) 引发了市场观察人士的兴趣，他们正在密切关注其对比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的潜在影响。

After raising interest rates seven times in 2022 to combat persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve shifted gears and cut rates for the first time in four years. The central bank reduced its target range by 50 bps, bringing it down to 4.75%–5%. This move was more aggressive than the widely anticipated 25 bps rate cut.

美联储在 2022 年七次加息以应对持续高企的通胀后，四年来首次转变策略并降息。央行将目标区间下调 50 个基点，降至 4.75%–5%。此举比普遍预期的 25 个基点降息更为激进。

The rate cut decision was influenced by several factors, including a slight decrease in inflation, which had reached 40-year highs earlier in 2022. However, inflation remained above the central bank’s 2% target, and the unemployment rate continued to fall, reaching 3.5% in December.

降息决定受到多种因素影响，其中包括通胀小幅下降，通胀在2022年早些时候曾达到40年来的高位。不过，通胀仍高于央行2%的目标，失业率持续下降，达到3.5% 12 月%。

While lower interest rates are typically considered favorable for riskier assets like Bitcoin, the current macroeconomic environment is more complex, making it difficult to predict the precise impact on cryptocurrencies.

虽然较低的利率通常被认为有利于比特币等风险较高的资产，但当前的宏观经济环境更加复杂，因此很难预测对加密货币的准确影响。

A recent analysis by crypto data platform Lookonchain highlighted the historical relationship between Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and hikes and their impact on the price of Bitcoin over the past decade.

加密数据平台 Lookonchain 最近的一项分析强调了过去十年美联储降息和加息之间的历史关系及其对比特币价格的影响。

During periods of lower interest rates, Bitcoin has tended to perform well. For example, between early 2020 and late 2021, the Federal Reserve slashed rates to near zero to counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, Bitcoin experienced one of its most significant bull runs.

在利率较低的时期，比特币往往表现良好。例如，在 2020 年初至 2021 年底期间，美联储将利率削减至接近零，以应​​对 COVID-19 大流行造成的经济影响。在此期间，比特币经历了最重要的牛市之一。

As the pandemic hit and the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates, Bitcoin began to rally. From around $3,850 in March 2020, the price of BTC soared to its all-time high of $69,000 by November 2021.

随着大流行的爆发和美联储大幅降息，比特币开始反弹。 BTC 的价格从 2020 年 3 月的 3,850 美元左右飙升至 2021 年 11 月的历史新高 69,000 美元。

This surge was driven by several factors, including easy access to capital, increased risk appetite, and a weakening U.S. dollar, which made Bitcoin more attractive to investors. Lower interest rates also reduced the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like bonds, which offered lower yields, shifting investor interest toward cryptocurrencies.

这种飙升是由多种因素推动的，包括容易获得资本、风险偏好增加以及美元疲软，这使得比特币对投资者更具吸引力。较低的利率还降低了债券等传统避险资产的吸引力，这些资产的收益率较低，从而将投资者的兴趣转向加密货币。

However, the economic landscape in 2024 differs significantly from that period. While the rate cut may initially spark some renewed interest in Bitcoin, the broader context is vastly different from previous years.

然而，2024年的经济格局与那个时期有很大不同。虽然降息最初可能会引发人们对比特币的一些新兴趣，但更广泛的背景与前几年有很大不同。

In contrast to the stimulus-heavy environment during the pandemic, the Federal Reserve spent much of 2022 and 2023 hiking rates to combat inflation, which remained a primary concern.

与大流行期间大力实施刺激的环境形成鲜明对比的是，美联储在 2022 年和 2023 年的大部分时间里都在加息，以应对通货膨胀，这仍然是主要问题。

During the rate-hiking cycle that began in early 2022, Bitcoin’s price fell from its 2021 peak, struggling to maintain momentum as higher borrowing costs and rising inflation reduced liquidity in the market.

在 2022 年初开始的加息周期中，比特币的价格从 2021 年的峰值下跌，由于借贷成本上升和通胀上升减少了市场流动性，比特币的价格难以维持势头。

As interest rates rose, investors pulled away from speculative assets like Bitcoin and opted for safer, interest-bearing investments. Now that the Federal Reserve has pivoted back to rate cuts, there is cautious optimism about the potential for Bitcoin to rally once again. However, some analysts have advised caution amid the bullish sentiments.

随着利率上升，投资者撤出比特币等投机资产，转而选择更安全、有息的投资。现在美联储已经转向降息，人们对比特币再次反弹的潜力持谨慎乐观态度。然而，一些分析师建议在看涨情绪中保持谨慎。

One key difference is that interest rates, even after the cut, remain well above the near-zero levels seen during the pandemic. Furthermore, the crypto market has matured since 2020, with more institutional investors who are likely to adopt a more conservative approach.

一个关键的区别是，即使在降息之后，利率仍远高于大流行期间接近于零的水平。此外，加密货币市场自 2020 年以来已趋于成熟，更多机构投资者可能会采取更为保守的做法。

In addition, the latest rate cut is more aggressive than the popular projection of a 25 bps rate. Notably, in 2001 and 2007, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by at least 0.5%, the S&P 500 collapsed as risk assets dropped, unemployment rate spiked and the economy entered a recession.

此外，最新的降息幅度比普遍预测的 25 个基点更为激进。值得注意的是，在2001年和2007年，当美联储降息至少0.5%时，随着风险资产下降、失业率飙升、经济进入衰退，标准普尔500指数崩溃。

Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+ bps:

过去两次美联储首次降息幅度超过 50 个基点：

?Jan 3, 2001 - S&P 500 fell ~39% next 448 days

?2001 年 1 月 3 日 - 接下来 448 天标准普尔 500 指数下跌约 39%

- Unemployment rose another 2.1%

- 失业率再上升 2.1%

- Recession

- 经济衰退

?Sep 18, 2007 - S&P 500 fell ~54% next 372 days

?2007 年 9 月 18 日 - 接下来 372 天标准普尔 500 指数下跌约 54%

- Unemployment rose another 5.3%

- 失业率再上升 5.3%

- Recession

- 经济衰退

?Sep 18, 2024 - ?

?2024 年 9 月 18 日 - ？

- ?

- ？

- ?

- ？

While a 50 bps rate cut may be bullish for some assets, it’s crucial to proceed with caution, especially in the stock market.

虽然降息 50 个基点可能对某些资产有利，但谨慎行事至关重要，尤其是在股市。

After the first rate cut of 2024, several market participants expressed optimism about a potential bull market for Bitcoin. However, some, like renowned crypto skeptic Peter Schiff, remained unconvinced.

2024年首次降息后，一些市场参与者对比特币潜在的牛市表示乐观。然而，一些人，比如著名的加密货币怀疑论者 Peter Schiff，仍然不相信。

“After the first Fed rate cut of 2024, several market participants are predicting a bull market for Bitcoin. But don’t get too excited. Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+

“在 2024 年美联储首次降息之后，一些市场参与者预测比特币将迎来牛市。但不要太兴奋。最近2次美联储首次降息幅度都在50+