以太坊上海昇級（或“Shapella”）即將到來

向後不相容的硬分叉將允許用戶訪問自 2020 年底以來鎖定在網路中的價值約 300 億美元的以太幣。

The Ethereum blockchain's Shanghai upgrade (or “Shapella”) is almost here. The backward-incompatible hard fork will allow users to access some $30 billion worth of ether locked in the network since the tail end of 2020.

以太坊區塊鏈的上海昇級（或「Shapella」）即將到來。向後不相容的硬分叉將允許用戶訪問自 2020 年底以來鎖定在網路中的價值約 300 億美元的以太幣。

Some observers expect an ether price swoon after the upgrade as users liquidate their holdings, while others believe the expected uptick in the selling pressure is already baked in and the market will bounce after the event in a classic “buy the news” move.

一些觀察家預計，升級後，隨著用戶清算其持有的以太幣，以太幣價格將大幅下跌，而另一些觀察家則認為，拋售壓力的預期上升已經形成，市場將在升級後出現反彈，這是典型的「買進消息」走勢。

Henry Elder, head of decentralized finance at Wave Digital Assets, sees the upgrade as a clear “sell the news” event for ether and for governance tokens of liquid staking solutions like Lido, which have been rallying since early January in anticipation of the hard fork.

Wave Digital Assets 去中心化金融主管亨利·埃爾德(Henry Elder) 認為，此次升級對於以太坊和Lido 等流動性質押解決方案的治理代幣來說是一次明顯的“出售新聞”事件，自1 月初以來，這些代幣因預期硬分叉而一直在上漲。

“We should expect the withdrawal queue to fill up immediately, and stay full for several weeks,” Elder said. “This will look like fulfillment of the ‘supply deluge’ narrative and markets will likely sell off.”

「我們應該預計提款隊列會立即填滿，並持續數週，」埃爾德說。 “這看起來像是‘供應氾濫’的說法得到了實現，市場可能會出現拋售。”

Elder added: “Most withdrawals will probably come from early individual stakers who now want to rotate into liquid staking solutions, and early users of now dominant staking solutions who want to rotate into minority staking solutions to increase decentralization.”

埃爾德補充說：「大多數提款可能來自早期的個人質押者，他們現在希望轉向流動性質押解決方案，以及現在占主導地位的質押解決方案的早期用戶，他們希望轉向少數質押解決方案以提高去中心化程度。

While the entire stack of over 18 million coins cannot be withdrawn immediately, partial withdrawals of just over one million coins earned as rewards for staking can be processed right away. That one million ETH represents a potential post-upgrade selling pressure.

雖然超過 1800 萬個代幣的全部堆疊無法立即提取，但作為質押獎勵賺取的略高於 100 萬個代幣的部分提取可以立即處理。這 100 萬 ETH 代表了升級後潛在的拋售壓力。

According to Laurent Kssis, a crypto trading adviser at CEC Capital, ether has rallied ahead of the event and could come under pressure upon successful implementation of the upgrade.

CEC Capital 加密貨幣交易顧問 Laurent Kssis 表示，以太坊在此次活動之前已經上漲，並且在成功實施升級後可能會面臨壓力。

“Traders have bought the news in advance of the Shanghai event, and if the event is successful they will dump their ETH on the market,” said Kssis. He predicts traders selling their ether following the upgrade in the view that they’ve made money for their locked up time and this will result in a strong supply of ether flooding the market.

Kssis 表示：“交易者在上海活動之前就已經買入了這一消息，如果活動成功，他們將在市場上拋售 ETH。”他預測，交易者將在升級後出售以太幣，因為他們認為鎖定時間已經賺到了錢，這將導致以太坊供應大量湧入市場。

Kssis said he sees ether possibly dropping below $1,700 for the first time in two weeks as investors take profits through.

Kssis 表示，隨著投資者獲利了結，他預計以太幣可能會在兩週內首次跌破 1,700 美元。

At press time, ether traded near $1,875, representing a 56% year-to-date gain, per CoinDesk data. The LDO governance token of Lido Finance, the largest liquid staking protocol with some $8.4 billion of staked ether on the platform, has gained 26% since the start of the year, while competitor Rocket Pool's RPL has gained 70% since January.

根據 CoinDesk 的數據，截至發稿時，以太坊交易價格接近 1,875 美元，較年初至今上漲 56%。 Lido Finance 的LDO 治理代幣是最大的流動性質押協議，該協議在平台上質押了約84 億美元的以太幣，自今年年初以來已經上漲了26%，而競爭對手Rocket Pool 的RPL 自1 月份以來已經上漲了70%。

But Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at FundStrat, suggested the market is being overly pessimistic about the supply-side effects of upcoming staking withdrawals.

但 FundStrat 數位資產策略主管 Sean Farrell 表示，市場對即將到來的質押提款的供應面影響過於悲觀。

“Factors such as existing liquidity access for most stakers, withdrawal queue limitations, and a market that has de-risked prior to the Shapella upgrade reduce the risk of a sudden supply overhang,” Farrell said in an interview with CoinDesk.

Farrell 在接受 CoinDesk 採訪時表示：“大多數質押者現有的流動性准入、提款隊列限制以及在 Shapella 升級之前已經降低風險的市場等因素降低了突然供應過剩的風險。”

“With that in mind, it's reasonable to expect an ether-bitcoin [ETH/BTC] rally in the weeks following the completion of the event,” Farrel added.

「考慮到這一點，預計以太坊比特幣 [ETH/BTC] 在活動結束後幾週內反彈是合理的，」法雷爾補充道。

While ether has charted double-digit gains this year, the cryptocurrency has underperformed market leader bitcoin by a considerable margin. Bitcoin has rallied over 70% this year. The ether-bitcoin ratio has declined 13.6%. That’s contrary to the rise of around 58% in the month before Ethereum implemented a software upgrade called Merge in September last year.

儘管以太幣今年取得了兩位數的漲幅，但這種加密貨幣的表現卻遠遠落後於市場領先者比特幣。比特幣今年已經上漲了 70% 以上。以太幣與比特幣的比率下降了 13.6%。這與去年 9 月以太坊實施名為 Merge 的軟體升級之前一個月約 58% 的漲幅相反。

The decline in ether-bitcoin suggests fears of a post-upgrade supply boost have been priced in to some extent. Besides, several industry experts, including Galaxy Digital, have recently said that the selling pressure from partial withdrawals will be distributed over several days.

以太坊比特幣的下跌表明，對升級後供應增加的擔憂已在一定程度上反映在價格中。此外，包括Galaxy Digital在內的多位業界專家近日表示，部分提款帶來的拋售壓力將在數天內分散。

“We expect 553,650 ETH will be sold. Amortized over 7 days, this amounts to approximately 1% of daily ETH volume (including spot and perpetual futures volume) of selling per day for a week,” analysts at Galaxy Digital said in a note published early this month. “Depending on the risk environment broadly and overall liquidity in ether during the Shanghai upgrade, expected on Wednesday, April 12, we view this amount as ranging from inconsequential to slightly bearish ETH/USD.”

「我們預計將出售 553,650 ETH。 Galaxy Digital 分析師在本月初發布的報告中表示，以 7 天攤銷，這相當於一周每天 ETH 銷售量（包括現貨和永續期貨交易量）的約 1%。 “根據預計 4 月 12 日星期三上海昇級期間的總體風險環境和以太坊整體流動性，我們認為這一金額從無關緊要到略微看跌 ETH/美元。”