以太坊上海升级（或“Shapella”）即将到来

向后不兼容的硬分叉将允许用户访问自 2020 年底以来锁定在网络中的价值约 300 亿美元的以太币。

The Ethereum blockchain's Shanghai upgrade (or “Shapella”) is almost here. The backward-incompatible hard fork will allow users to access some $30 billion worth of ether locked in the network since the tail end of 2020.

以太坊区块链的上海升级（或“Shapella”）即将到来。向后不兼容的硬分叉将允许用户访问自 2020 年底以来锁定在网络中的价值约 300 亿美元的以太币。

Some observers expect an ether price swoon after the upgrade as users liquidate their holdings, while others believe the expected uptick in the selling pressure is already baked in and the market will bounce after the event in a classic “buy the news” move.

一些观察人士预计，升级后，随着用户清算其持有的以太币，以太币价格将大幅下跌，而另一些观察人士则认为，抛售压力的预期上升已经形成，市场将在升级后出现反弹，这是典型的“买入消息”走势。

Henry Elder, head of decentralized finance at Wave Digital Assets, sees the upgrade as a clear “sell the news” event for ether and for governance tokens of liquid staking solutions like Lido, which have been rallying since early January in anticipation of the hard fork.

Wave Digital Assets 去中心化金融主管亨利·埃尔德 (Henry Elder) 认为，此次升级对于以太坊和 Lido 等流动性质押解决方案的治理代币来说是一次明显的“出售新闻”事件，自 1 月初以来，这些代币因预期硬分叉而一直在上涨。

“We should expect the withdrawal queue to fill up immediately, and stay full for several weeks,” Elder said. “This will look like fulfillment of the ‘supply deluge’ narrative and markets will likely sell off.”

“我们应该预计提款队列会立即填满，并持续数周，”埃尔德说。 “这看起来像是‘供应泛滥’的说法得到了实现，市场可能会出现抛售。”

Elder added: “Most withdrawals will probably come from early individual stakers who now want to rotate into liquid staking solutions, and early users of now dominant staking solutions who want to rotate into minority staking solutions to increase decentralization.”

埃尔德补充道：“大多数提款可能来自早期的个人质押者，他们现在希望转向流动性质押解决方案，以及现在占主导地位的质押解决方案的早期用户，他们希望转向少数质押解决方案以提高去中心化程度。”

While the entire stack of over 18 million coins cannot be withdrawn immediately, partial withdrawals of just over one million coins earned as rewards for staking can be processed right away. That one million ETH represents a potential post-upgrade selling pressure.

虽然超过 1800 万个代币的全部堆栈无法立即提取，但作为质押奖励赚取的略高于 100 万个代币的部分提取可以立即处理。这 100 万 ETH 代表了升级后潜在的抛售压力。

According to Laurent Kssis, a crypto trading adviser at CEC Capital, ether has rallied ahead of the event and could come under pressure upon successful implementation of the upgrade.

CEC Capital 加密货币交易顾问 Laurent Kssis 表示，以太坊在此次活动之前已经上涨，并且在成功实施升级后可能会面临压力。

“Traders have bought the news in advance of the Shanghai event, and if the event is successful they will dump their ETH on the market,” said Kssis. He predicts traders selling their ether following the upgrade in the view that they’ve made money for their locked up time and this will result in a strong supply of ether flooding the market.

Kssis 表示：“交易者在上海活动之前就已经买入了这一消息，如果活动成功，他们将在市场上抛售 ETH。”他预测，交易者会在升级后出售以太币，因为他们认为锁定时间已经赚到了钱，这将导致以太坊供应大量涌入市场。

Kssis said he sees ether possibly dropping below $1,700 for the first time in two weeks as investors take profits through.

Kssis 表示，随着投资者获利了结，他预计以太币可能会在两周内首次跌破 1,700 美元。

At press time, ether traded near $1,875, representing a 56% year-to-date gain, per CoinDesk data. The LDO governance token of Lido Finance, the largest liquid staking protocol with some $8.4 billion of staked ether on the platform, has gained 26% since the start of the year, while competitor Rocket Pool's RPL has gained 70% since January.

根据 CoinDesk 的数据，截至发稿时，以太坊交易价格接近 1,875 美元，较年初至今上涨 56%。 Lido Finance 的 LDO 治理代币是最大的流动性质押协议，该协议在平台上质押了约 84 亿美元的以太币，自今年年初以来已经上涨了 26%，而竞争对手 Rocket Pool 的 RPL 自 1 月份以来已经上涨了 70%。

But Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at FundStrat, suggested the market is being overly pessimistic about the supply-side effects of upcoming staking withdrawals.

但 FundStrat 数字资产策略主管肖恩·法雷尔 (Sean Farrell) 表示，市场对即将到来的质押提款的供应面影响过于悲观。

“Factors such as existing liquidity access for most stakers, withdrawal queue limitations, and a market that has de-risked prior to the Shapella upgrade reduce the risk of a sudden supply overhang,” Farrell said in an interview with CoinDesk.

Farrell 在接受 CoinDesk 采访时表示：“大多数质押者现有的流动性准入、提款队列限制以及在 Shapella 升级之前已经降低风险的市场等因素降低了突然供应过剩的风险。”

“With that in mind, it's reasonable to expect an ether-bitcoin [ETH/BTC] rally in the weeks following the completion of the event,” Farrel added.

“考虑到这一点，预计以太坊比特币 [ETH/BTC] 在活动结束后几周内反弹是合理的，”法雷尔补充道。

While ether has charted double-digit gains this year, the cryptocurrency has underperformed market leader bitcoin by a considerable margin. Bitcoin has rallied over 70% this year. The ether-bitcoin ratio has declined 13.6%. That’s contrary to the rise of around 58% in the month before Ethereum implemented a software upgrade called Merge in September last year.

尽管以太币今年取得了两位数的涨幅，但这种加密货币的表现却远远落后于市场领先者比特币。比特币今年已上涨超过 70%。以太币与比特币的比率下降了 13.6%。这与去年 9 月以太坊实施名为 Merge 的软件升级之前一个月约 58% 的涨幅相反。

The decline in ether-bitcoin suggests fears of a post-upgrade supply boost have been priced in to some extent. Besides, several industry experts, including Galaxy Digital, have recently said that the selling pressure from partial withdrawals will be distributed over several days.

以太坊比特币的下跌表明，对升级后供应增加的担忧已在一定程度上反映在价格中。此外，包括Galaxy Digital在内的多位行业专家近日表示，部分提款带来的抛售压力将在数日内分散。

“We expect 553,650 ETH will be sold. Amortized over 7 days, this amounts to approximately 1% of daily ETH volume (including spot and perpetual futures volume) of selling per day for a week,” analysts at Galaxy Digital said in a note published early this month. “Depending on the risk environment broadly and overall liquidity in ether during the Shanghai upgrade, expected on Wednesday, April 12, we view this amount as ranging from inconsequential to slightly bearish ETH/USD.”

“我们预计将出售 553,650 ETH。 Galaxy Digital 分析师在本月初发布的一份报告中表示，按 7 天摊销，这相当于一周每天 ETH 销售量（包括现货和永续期货交易量）的约 1%。 “根据预计 4 月 12 日星期三上海升级期间的总体风险环境和以太坊整体流动性，我们认为这一金额从无关紧要到略微看跌 ETH/美元。”