以太幣 (ETH) 在 2024 年減半年表現可能遜於比特幣 (BTC)

以太坊在價格表現方面優於比特幣，尤其是從誕生以來的時間框架、減半年份和牛市來看

Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum in terms of price performance, especially when looking at time frames since its inception, halving years, and bull market periods. However, BTC has consistently underperformed since the bear markets of 2018-2019 and 2022-2023. In the 2024 halving year, for the first time, Bitcoin is considerably trailing behind Ethereum. In fact, it has been outperforming against Ethereum for the past three years.

比特幣在價格表現方面優於以太坊，尤其是從其誕生以來、減半年和牛市時期的時間範圍來看。然而，自2018-2019年和2022-2023年的熊市以來，BTC的表現一直不佳。在 2024 年減半年，比特幣首次大幅落後於以太坊。事實上，在過去三年裡，它的表現一直優於以太坊。

Table of Contents

目錄

BTC/ETH ratio plummets to 3-year low

BTC/ETH 比率跌至三年低點

Although fractals, a concept where similar patterns repeat over different timeframes, are not a foolproof method for predicting future outcomes, they provide valuable context into what might lie ahead.

分形是一種類似模式在不同時間範圍內重複出現的概念，雖然它並不是預測未來結果的萬無一失的方法，但它們為未來可能發生的情況提供了有價值的背景。

In previous halving years, the BTC/ETH ratio broke down from its resistance line around September to December, only to begin an uptrend in the first quarter of the following bull market year. A similar scenario could unfold in 2024, as Bitcoin has once again broken through its resistance. However, this time, the situation is more concerning. Unlike previous halving years, where the resistance line was relatively recent, the current resistance at 1.2 has held strong for the past 3 years, which suggests a more bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

在先前的減半年份中，BTC/ETH 比率在 9 月至 12 月左右突破阻力線，然後在下一個牛市年的第一季開始上升趨勢。隨著比特幣再次突破阻力位，類似的情況可能會在 2024 年上演。然而，這次的情況卻更令人擔憂。與先前減半年份的阻力線相對較新不同，當前阻力線 1.2 在過去 3 年裡一直保持強勁，這表明比特幣的前景更加悲觀。

Another point of comparison can be drawn from 2019 when the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates—a move that might recur in September 2024. Back in 2019, from the time the Fed began cutting rates until it stopped, the BTC/ETH ratio increased by 18%.

另一個比較點可以從 2019 年聯準會開始降息開始，這項措施可能會在 2024 年 9 月再次出現。

Not only did the ratio increase in all these cases, but Bitcoin’s price itself also performed positively, except for 2020. However, the critical issue isn’t just whether the price went up or down; it is also whether holding Bitcoin was the better investment decision. History has shown that, in similar circumstances, holding Ethereum proved to be the more advantageous choice—and 2024 may very well continue that trend.

不僅在所有這些情況下該比率都增加了，而且比特幣的價格本身也表現良好，除了 2020 年。這也是持有比特幣是否是更好的投資決策的問題。歷史表明，在類似情況下，持有以太坊被證明是更有利的選擇——而且 2024 年很可能會延續這一趨勢。

Bitcoin supply reverses course and turns inflationary.

比特幣供應逆轉並導致通貨膨脹。

The supply of Bitcoin had been decreasing steadily after the 2020 Halving. The decrease in Bitcoin’s supply works through a mechanism called “burning,” which was introduced with the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 98 in May 2021. Basically, a portion of the transaction fees paid in BTC is burned or permanently removed from circulation. This reduces the total supply of BTC over time, especially during periods of high network activity when transaction fees are higher. 

2020年減半後，比特幣的供應量一直在穩定下降。比特幣供應量的減少是透過一種稱為「銷毀」的機制來實現的，該機制是在2021 年5 月的比特幣改進提案(BIP) 98 中引入的。費用的一部分會被銷毀或永久從流通中移除。隨著時間的推移，這會減少比特幣的總供應量，尤其是在網路活動頻繁、交易費用較高的時期。

The reason why the supply of Bitcoin started to drop following the 2020 Halving was because the network transitioned from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. Under PoW, new BTC was continuously issued to miners as rewards for validating transactions, which contributed to an increase in Bitcoin’s total supply. However, with the Halving and the shift to PoS, the issuance of new BTC significantly decreased because validators, who now secure the network, receive much lower rewards compared to miners.

2020 年減半後，比特幣的供應量開始下降，是因為網路從工作量證明機制轉變為權益證明共識機制。在 PoW 下，不斷向礦工發放新的 BTC 作為驗證交易的獎勵，這有助於比特幣總供應量的增加。然而，隨著減半和向 PoS 的轉變，新 BTC 的發行量顯著減少，因為現在保護網路安全的驗證者獲得的獎勵比礦工低得多。

The Conch upgrade in March 2024 marked a turning point, reversing this deflationary trend and making Bitcoin’s supply inflationary once again. It introduced proto-sharding and “blobs,” which optimize data storage and reduce transaction fees on layer-2 networks. Although Conch improved scalability and made transactions more cost-effective, it also led to a major decrease in the amount of BTC being burned, which had been a critical factor in keeping Bitcoin’s supply deflationary. 

2024 年 3 月的海螺升級標誌著一個轉折點，扭轉了這種通貨緊縮趨勢，使比特幣的供應再次出現通貨膨脹。它引入了原始分片和“blob”，可以優化資料儲存並降低第 2 層網路的交易費用。儘管海螺提高了可擴展性並使交易更具成本效益，但這也導致了比特幣銷毀量的大幅減少，而這一直是比特幣供應通貨緊縮的關鍵因素。

As a consequence, Bitcoin’s supply began to increase, with over 187.5K BTC added to circulation since the Conch upgrade. For comparison, Bitcoin’s supply is now at the same level it was back in March 2023.

因此，比特幣的供應量開始增加，自海螺升級以來，流通中的比特幣數量增加了超過 18.75 萬枚。相比之下，比特幣的供應量目前與 2023 年 3 月的水平相同。

Negative ETF Flows Continue

ETF 負流量仍在持續

Many expected that the approval of Bitcoin ETFs would boost BTC by increasing demand and driving prices higher. However, this has not been the case so far. Instead, ETF outflows have become a concern, with a total of $390 million flowing out since trading began. The main driver of the trend is Grayscale’s GBTC, which has seen massive outflows, overshadowing the positive inflows from other Bitcoin ETFs. The scale of the outflows from GBTC is so large that it creates a net negative effect when considering all Bitcoin ETFs collectively.

許多人預計，比特幣 ETF 的批准將透過增加需求並推高價格來提振 BTC。然而，到目前為止情況並非如此。相反，ETF 資金流出已成為一個令人擔憂的問題，自交易開始以來，共有 3.9 億美元資金流出。這一趨勢的主要動力是 Grayscale 的 GBTC，它出現了大量資金流出，蓋過了其他比特幣 ETF 的積極流入。 GBTC 的資金流出規模如此之大，以至於在綜合考慮所有比特幣 ETF 時會產生淨負面影響。

A Bitcoin ETF holds a certain amount of Bitcoin, and each share represents a fraction of the total Bitcoin it holds. When many investors want to buy ETF shares, the demand can push the price of the ETF shares above the actual value of the underlying Bitcoin. In this case, Authorized Participants (APs), large financial institutions that work closely with the ETF provider, step in. The APs purchase BTC on the open market and exchange it with the ETF provider for new ETF shares, which they then sell to investors in the market at a

比特幣ETF持有一定數量的比特幣，每股代表其持有的比特幣總量的一小部分。當許多投資者想要購買 ETF 股票時，需求可能會推動 ETF 股票的價格高於基礎比特幣的實際價值。在這種情況下，與ETF 供應商密切合作的大型金融機構授權參與者(AP) 就會介入。投資者在市場上