以太坊 (ETH) 在 2024 年减半年表现可能逊于比特币 (BTC)

以太坊在价格表现方面优于比特币，尤其是从其诞生以来的时间框架、减半年份和牛市来看

Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum in terms of price performance, especially when looking at time frames since its inception, halving years, and bull market periods. However, BTC has consistently underperformed since the bear markets of 2018-2019 and 2022-2023. In the 2024 halving year, for the first time, Bitcoin is considerably trailing behind Ethereum. In fact, it has been outperforming against Ethereum for the past three years.

比特币在价格表现方面优于以太坊，尤其是从其诞生以来、减半年和牛市时期的时间范围来看。然而，自2018-2019年和2022-2023年的熊市以来，BTC的表现一直不佳。在 2024 年减半年，比特币首次大幅落后于以太坊。事实上，在过去三年里，它的表现一直优于以太坊。

Table of Contents

目录

BTC/ETH ratio plummets to 3-year low

BTC/ETH 比率跌至三年低点

Although fractals, a concept where similar patterns repeat over different timeframes, are not a foolproof method for predicting future outcomes, they provide valuable context into what might lie ahead.

分形是一种类似模式在不同时间范围内重复出现的概念，虽然它并不是预测未来结果的万无一失的方法，但它们为未来可能发生的情况提供了有价值的背景。

In previous halving years, the BTC/ETH ratio broke down from its resistance line around September to December, only to begin an uptrend in the first quarter of the following bull market year. A similar scenario could unfold in 2024, as Bitcoin has once again broken through its resistance. However, this time, the situation is more concerning. Unlike previous halving years, where the resistance line was relatively recent, the current resistance at 1.2 has held strong for the past 3 years, which suggests a more bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

在之前的减半年份中，BTC/ETH 比率在 9 月至 12 月左右突破阻力线，然后在下一个牛市年的第一季度开始上升趋势。随着比特币再次突破阻力位，类似的情况可能会在 2024 年上演。然而，这一次的情况却更加令人担忧。与之前减半年份的阻力线相对较新不同，当前阻力线 1.2 在过去 3 年里一直保持强劲，这表明比特币的前景更加悲观。

Another point of comparison can be drawn from 2019 when the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates—a move that might recur in September 2024. Back in 2019, from the time the Fed began cutting rates until it stopped, the BTC/ETH ratio increased by 18%.

另一个比较点可以从 2019 年美联储开始降息开始，这一举措可能会在 2024 年 9 月再次出现。早在 2019 年，从美联储开始降息到停止降息，BTC/ETH 比率增加了18%。

Not only did the ratio increase in all these cases, but Bitcoin’s price itself also performed positively, except for 2020. However, the critical issue isn’t just whether the price went up or down; it is also whether holding Bitcoin was the better investment decision. History has shown that, in similar circumstances, holding Ethereum proved to be the more advantageous choice—and 2024 may very well continue that trend.

不仅在所有这些情况下该比率都增加了，而且比特币的价格本身也表现良好，除了 2020 年。然而，关键问题不仅仅是价格上涨还是下跌；还有比特币价格上涨或下跌。这也是持有比特币是否是更好的投资决策的问题。历史表明，在类似情况下，持有以太坊被证明是更有利的选择——而且 2024 年很可能会延续这一趋势。

Bitcoin supply reverses course and turns inflationary.

比特币供应逆转并导致通货膨胀。

The supply of Bitcoin had been decreasing steadily after the 2020 Halving. The decrease in Bitcoin’s supply works through a mechanism called “burning,” which was introduced with the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 98 in May 2021. Basically, a portion of the transaction fees paid in BTC is burned or permanently removed from circulation. This reduces the total supply of BTC over time, especially during periods of high network activity when transaction fees are higher. 

2020年减半后，比特币的供应量一直在稳步下降。比特币供应量的减少是通过一种称为“销毁”的机制来实现的，该机制是在 2021 年 5 月的比特币改进提案 (BIP) 98 中引入的。基本上，以 BTC 支付的交易费用的一部分会被销毁或永久从流通中移除。随着时间的推移，这会减少比特币的总供应量，尤其是在网络活动频繁、交易费用较高的时期。

The reason why the supply of Bitcoin started to drop following the 2020 Halving was because the network transitioned from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism. Under PoW, new BTC was continuously issued to miners as rewards for validating transactions, which contributed to an increase in Bitcoin’s total supply. However, with the Halving and the shift to PoS, the issuance of new BTC significantly decreased because validators, who now secure the network, receive much lower rewards compared to miners.

2020 年减半后，比特币的供应量开始下降，是因为网络从工作量证明机制转变为权益证明共识机制。在 PoW 下，不断向矿工发放新的 BTC 作为验证交易的奖励，这有助于比特币总供应量的增加。然而，随着减半和向 PoS 的转变，新 BTC 的发行量显着减少，因为现在保护网络安全的验证者获得的奖励比矿工低得多。

The Conch upgrade in March 2024 marked a turning point, reversing this deflationary trend and making Bitcoin’s supply inflationary once again. It introduced proto-sharding and “blobs,” which optimize data storage and reduce transaction fees on layer-2 networks. Although Conch improved scalability and made transactions more cost-effective, it also led to a major decrease in the amount of BTC being burned, which had been a critical factor in keeping Bitcoin’s supply deflationary. 

2024 年 3 月的海螺升级标志着一个转折点，扭转了这种通缩趋势，使比特币的供应再次出现通货膨胀。它引入了原始分片和“blob”，可以优化数据存储并降低第 2 层网络的交易费用。尽管海螺提高了可扩展性并使交易更具成本效益，但这也导致了比特币销毁量的大幅减少，而这一直是比特币供应通货紧缩的关键因素。

As a consequence, Bitcoin’s supply began to increase, with over 187.5K BTC added to circulation since the Conch upgrade. For comparison, Bitcoin’s supply is now at the same level it was back in March 2023.

因此，比特币的供应量开始增加，自海螺升级以来，流通中的比特币数量增加了超过 18.75 万枚。相比之下，比特币的供应量目前与 2023 年 3 月的水平相同。

Negative ETF Flows Continue

ETF 负流量仍在继续

Many expected that the approval of Bitcoin ETFs would boost BTC by increasing demand and driving prices higher. However, this has not been the case so far. Instead, ETF outflows have become a concern, with a total of $390 million flowing out since trading began. The main driver of the trend is Grayscale’s GBTC, which has seen massive outflows, overshadowing the positive inflows from other Bitcoin ETFs. The scale of the outflows from GBTC is so large that it creates a net negative effect when considering all Bitcoin ETFs collectively.

许多人预计，比特币 ETF 的批准将通过增加需求并推高价格来提振 BTC。然而，到目前为止情况并非如此。相反，ETF 资金流出已成为一个令人担忧的问题，自交易开始以来，共有 3.9 亿美元资金流出。这一趋势的主要推动力是 Grayscale 的 GBTC，它出现了大量资金流出，盖过了其他比特币 ETF 的积极流入。 GBTC 的资金流出规模如此之大，以至于在综合考虑所有比特币 ETF 时会产生净负面影响。

A Bitcoin ETF holds a certain amount of Bitcoin, and each share represents a fraction of the total Bitcoin it holds. When many investors want to buy ETF shares, the demand can push the price of the ETF shares above the actual value of the underlying Bitcoin. In this case, Authorized Participants (APs), large financial institutions that work closely with the ETF provider, step in. The APs purchase BTC on the open market and exchange it with the ETF provider for new ETF shares, which they then sell to investors in the market at a

比特币ETF持有一定数量的比特币，每股代表其持有的比特币总量的一小部分。当许多投资者想要购买 ETF 股票时，需求可能会推动 ETF 股票的价格高于基础比特币的实际价值。在这种情况下，与 ETF 提供商密切合作的大型金融机构授权参与者 (AP) 就会介入。AP 在公开市场上购买 BTC，并与 ETF 提供商交换新的 ETF 份额，然后将其出售给投资者在市场上