以太坊與比特幣：BTC的弱安全性是否是滴答時間炸彈？

加密研究社區中越來越多的聲音引起了人們對比特幣安全架構可持續性的擔憂

A debate has sparked within the crypto research community, specifically focusing on the long-term viability of Bitcoin's security architecture in comparison to Ethereum's.

與以太坊相比，在加密研究社區中引發了一場辯論，特別關注比特幣安全體系結構的長期生存能力。

As researchers, including Justin Drake, continue to explore the strengths and weaknesses of each cryptocurrency, their findings are converging on a critical point of contention: the varying difficulty and cost of carrying out a 51% attack, a scenario where a malicious entity gains control of over 50% of a cryptocurrency's network to disrupt transactions and potentially halt the chain.

隨著包括賈斯汀·德雷克（Justin Drake）在內的研究人員繼續探索每種加密貨幣的優勢和劣勢，他們的發現正匯合到關鍵的爭論點：進行51％的攻擊的不同難度和成本，這種情況是惡意實體贏得了超過50％的加密貨幣網絡以破壞潛在的一半鏈的控制。

Bitcoin's Imperfect Defense

比特幣的不完美防禦

Drake, a prominent figure in the Ethereum community, highlights what he sees as a glaring flaw in Bitcoin's design. According to his calculations, an attacker would need to control a majority of the Bitcoin network's hashrate, which in simpler terms means the collective computing power dedicated to processing transactions and securing the chain.

德雷克（Drake）是以太坊社區中著名人物，他強調了他認為比特幣設計中的巨大缺陷。根據他的計算，攻擊者將需要控制大多數比特幣網絡的哈希特，這在更簡單的角度意味著集體計算能力專用於處理交易和確保鏈條。

Currently, Drake estimates that such an attack would require around $10 billion in capital to pull off, taking into account the cost of specialized ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) miners and electricity consumption over a year. In contrast, to compromise Ethereum, an attacker would need to acquire more than half of the total staked ETH, which is valued at nearly $45 billion as of August 2023.

目前，德雷克（Drake）估計，考慮到一年內專門的ASIC（特定於應用程序的集成電路）礦工的成本和電力消耗，這種攻擊將需要大約100億美元的資本才能實現。相比之下，要妥協以太坊，攻擊者需要獲得一半以上的固定ETH，截至2023年8月，攻擊者的價值將接近450億美元。

This difference in economic scale is stark. While $10 billion is no small sum, it's an achievable figure for a large hedge fund or a nation-state over a year, especially considering that the price of bitcoin could increase over time.

經濟規模的這種差異很明顯。雖然100億美元不小，但對於一年多的大型對沖基金或民族國家來說，這是一個可實現的數字，尤其是考慮到比特幣的價格可能會隨著時間而上漲。

A Capital-Based Defense

基於資本的防禦

Since transitioning to proof-of-stake in 2024, Ethereum's defense model has shifted significantly. Instead of relying on energy-intensive mining, it's now secured by capital-based staking.

自2024年過渡到股份證明以來，以太坊的防禦模式發生了重大變化。現在，它不是依靠能源密集型採礦，而是通過基於資本的積分確保了。

This means that validators, who could be individuals, institutions, or organizations, lock up large amounts of ETH as collateral to participate in validating transactions and maintain the network's integrity. With the average staking node requiring around 32 ETH, which translates to roughly $100,000 at current prices, a considerable capital investment is needed from the outset.

這意味著可以成為個人，機構或組織的驗證者鎖定了大量ETH，以參與驗證交易並保持網絡的完整性。隨著平均含量節點需要大約32個ETH，以目前的價格轉化約100,000美元，從一開始就需要大量資本投資。

Moreover, any fraudulent activity or malicious intent from a validator would lead to the slashing of their staked tokens, resulting in a substantial financial loss. This factor acts as a strong deterrent against any unethical actions.

此外，驗證者的任何欺詐活動或惡意意圖都會導致其固定的代幣削減，從而造成巨大的財務損失。這個因素對任何不道德行動都是有力的威懾力量。

Grant Hummer, co-founder of Etherealize, further complements Drake's analysis with his own commentary. In a detailed thread on X, formerly Twitter, Hummer zooms out on the broader macroeconomic implications and the decreasing block rewards for Bitcoin.

Etherealize的聯合創始人Grant Hummer通過自己的評論進一步補充了Drake的分析。在X（以前是Twitter）上的詳細線程中，Hummer縮小了更廣泛的宏觀經濟含義以及比特幣的減少塊獎勵。

As Bitcoin's price increases and its remaining supply diminishes, the chain's hashrate is likely to concentrate among fewer entities, ultimately leading to a scenario where a single large miner might be able to perform a 51% attack on their own.

隨著比特幣的價格上漲及其剩餘的供應量的下降，連鎖店的哈希拉特很可能集中在更少的實體中，最終導致了一個場景，在這種情況下，一個大型礦工可能能夠自行執行51％的攻擊。

According to Hummer's calculations, the cost of such an attack could decrease dramatically over the coming years due to the halvings and increase in transaction fees. While he initially estimated it at $90 billion in 2024, he predicts it could fall to as low as $2 billion by 2030.

根據Hummer的計算，由於停止和交易費用的增加，這種攻擊的成本可能會在未來幾年急劇下降。雖然他最初估計2024年的$ 900億美元，但他預計到2030年可能會下降到20億美元。

While an astronomical sum, it's a figure that might be within reach for a powerful nation-state or a collective effort from several large institutions, especially if they see it as a strategic geopolitical move.

雖然是天文數字，但這可能是一個有力的民族國家或來自多個大型機構的集體努力的數字，尤其是當他們將其視為戰略性地緣政治舉動時。

In contrast, Hummer claims that Ethereum's broader validator base and significantly higher staking threshold would make such an attack economically unfeasible. According to his estimations, even pooling the resources of several large hedge funds like Renaissance Technologies or institutions like the Bank of China, with around $100 billion in assets under management, wouldn't be sufficient to carry out a 51% attack on the Ethereum network.

相比之下，悍馬聲稱以太坊的更廣泛的驗證器基礎和較高的靜止閾值將使經濟上的攻擊變得不可行。根據他的估計，即使匯集了文藝復興時期技術或中國銀行等機構（如管理資產約為1000億美元的資產，也不足以對以太坊網絡進行51％的攻擊，甚至還匯集了幾種大型對沖基金的資源。

Such an endeavor would require at least $75 billion and the cooperation of more than 6,000 institutions or hedge funds to acquire and lock up enough ETH over a year to gain control of over 50% of the network's hashrate.

這樣的努力將至少需要750億美元，以及6,000多家機構或對沖基金的合作，以在一年內收購和鎖定足夠的ETH，以控制該網絡超過50％的Hashrate。

The Importance of Decentralization

權力下放的重要性

This difference in scale is crucial. While $10 billion is no small sum, it's an achievable figure for a large hedge fund or a nation-state over a year, especially considering that the price of bitcoin could increase over time.

這種規模差異至關重要。雖然100億美元不小，但對於一年多的大型對沖基金或民族國家來說，這是一個可實現的數字，尤其是考慮到比特幣的價格可能會隨著時間而上漲。

However, mobilizing over 6,000 institutions or hedge funds to contribute billions of dollars each over a year for a common goal seems far more difficult and less likely, despite the potential gains.

但是，儘管有潛在的收益，但動員了6,000多個機構或對沖基金每年為一個共同的目標貢獻數十億美元的貢獻似乎更加困難，而且可能性較小。

Furthermore, Drake and Hummer highlight the significance of decentralization in their analysis. As they point out, sensitive data like personal data or financial transactions is usually stored in centralized cloud servers, which are vulnerable to hacking and surveillance by governments.

此外，Drake和Hummer在分析中強調了權力下放的意義。正如他們指出的那樣，敏感數據（例如個人數據或金融交易）通常存儲在集中式的雲服務器中，這些雲服務器容易受到政府的黑客入侵和監視的影響。

However, both cryptocurrencies, especially Ethereum with its massive validator network, effectively distribute this burden among thousands of independent entities. This structure makes it both economically and log

但是，這兩種加密貨幣，尤其是具有大量驗證器網絡的以太坊，有效地在數千個獨立實體中分配了這一負擔。這種結構使其在經濟上和日誌上