隨著美國 ETF 首次亮相臨近，以太坊對沖活動增加

從 ETH 相對於 BTC 的持續波動溢價可以看出投資者對以太幣的關注。

Investors are increasingly hedging their ether positions ahead of the debut of U.S.-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking ETH’s spot price, بازار مشتقات العملات المشفرة suggests.

Bamboo 表示，在追蹤 ETH 現貨價格的美國交易所交易基金 (ETF) 推出之前，投資者越來越多地對沖自己的以太幣頭寸。

Implied volatility (IV) – a measure of options-derived market expectations for price turbulence over a specific period – has risen across timeframes, نشان می دهد Deribit and Kaiko data. This signals increased demand for options or derivatives offering protection against price swings. A call protects against price rallies, while a put offers insurance against price slides.

根據 Deribit 和 Kaiko 的數據，隱含波動率（IV）——衡量特定時期內價格波動的選擇權衍生市場預期的指標——在不同時間範圍內呈上升趨勢。這表明對提供價格波動保護的選擇權或衍生性商品的需求增加。買權可以防止價格上漲，而賣權可以防止價格下跌。

The hedging activity has been more visible in shorter-term contracts, as indicated by the recent relative richness of implied volatility determined by options contracts expiring on July 19 compared to those expiring on July 26. According to Kaiko, the July 19 expiry IV rose from 53% on Saturday to 62% on Monday, exceeding the July 26 expiry IV.

與7 月26 日到期的選擇權合約相比，7 月19 日到期的選擇權合約所確定的隱含波動率最近相對豐富，這表明對沖活動在短期合約中更為明顯。 7 月19 日到期的IV 值從週六的53%上升至週一的62%，超過了7月26日到期的IV。

"The increase in IV on the July 19 contract suggests traders are paying more to hedge existing positions and protect against sharp price moves in the short term. This spike in near-term contracts IV indicates a level of uncertainty among traders," analysts at Kaiko noted in Monday’s edition of their newsletter.

Kaiko 分析師表示：「7 月19 日合約IV 的增加表明交易者正在支付更多費用來對沖現有頭寸並防止短期內價格大幅波動。近期合約IV 的飆升表明交易者之間存在一定程度的不確定性。

Traders also expect ether volatility to be higher compared to bitcoin. According to data from Amberdata, the spread between Deribit's 30-day ether and bitcoin implied volatility indices (BTC DVOL and ETH DVOL) has largely averaged around 10% since late May, up significantly from 5% in the first quarter.

交易員也預計，與比特幣相比，以太幣的波動性更高。根據Amberdata 的數據，自5 月下旬以來，Deribit 的30 天以太幣和比特幣隱含波動率指數（BTC DVOL 和ETH DVOL）之間的價差基本平均在10% 左右，較第一季的5%大幅上升。

Crypto exchange Bybit and analytics firm BlockScholes made a similar observation in a report shared with CoinDesk on Monday.

加密貨幣交易所 Bybit 和分析公司 BlockScholes 在周一與 CoinDesk 分享的報告中也提出了類似的觀察結果。

"Key findings indicate that investors are increasingly optimistic about ETH, particularly in anticipation of the first Ether Spot ETFs launching soon in the United States. This optimism is reflected in ETH's sustained volatility premium over BTC, which has persisted amid heightened market activity," the report noted.

「主要調查結果表明，投資者對ETH 越來越樂觀，特別是預計第一批以太幣現貨ETF 即將在美國推出。這種樂觀情緒反映在ETH 相對於BTC 的持續波動性溢價上，這種溢價在市場活動加劇的情況下持續存在。

The pickup in hedging activity in ether comes as traders are abuzz ahead of the launch of spot ether ETFs, which are expected to start trading next Tuesday. According to Gemini, spot ether ETFs could see a net inflow of $5 billion in the first six months, boosting ether's market value relative to bitcoin.

以太坊對沖活動的回升之際，交易員在現貨以太坊 ETF 推出之前熱鬧非凡，該ETF預計將於下週二開始交易。據 Gemini 稱，現貨以太坊 ETF 在前六個月可能會出現 50 億美元的淨流入，從而提高了以太坊相對於比特幣的市值。

Moreover, traders, keeping in mind the "sell-the-fact" phenomenon that followed the debut of bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11, might be bracing for similar price volatility in ether.

此外，考慮到 1 月 11 日比特幣 ETF 推出後出現的「拋售事實」現象，交易員可能會為以太坊類似的價格波動做好準備。

However, traders should note that the current market mood and ether's bullish positioning are far more muted compared to bitcoin in early January, suggesting a lower probability of a sell-the-fact pullback after the debut.

然而，交易者應該注意到，與 1 月初的比特幣相比，當前的市場情緒和以太坊的看漲定位要溫和得多，這表明首次亮相後出現拋售回調的可能性較低。

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team. He covers cryptocurrency markets and manages breaking news.

Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市場團隊的共同總編輯。他負責報道加密貨幣市場並管理突發新聞。