随着美国 ETF 首次亮相临近，以太坊对冲活动有所增加

从 ETH 相对于 BTC 的持续波动溢价可以看出投资者对以太币的关注。

Investors are increasingly hedging their ether positions ahead of the debut of U.S.-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking ETH’s spot price, بازار مشتقات العملات المشفرة suggests.

Bamboo 表示，在跟踪 ETH 现货价格的美国交易所交易基金 (ETF) 推出之前，投资者越来越多地对冲自己的以太币头寸。

Implied volatility (IV) – a measure of options-derived market expectations for price turbulence over a specific period – has risen across timeframes, نشان می دهد Deribit and Kaiko data. This signals increased demand for options or derivatives offering protection against price swings. A call protects against price rallies, while a put offers insurance against price slides.

根据 Deribit 和 Kaiko 的数据，隐含波动率（IV）——衡量特定时期内价格波动的期权衍生市场预期的指标——在不同时间范围内呈上升趋势。这表明对提供价格波动保护的期权或衍生品的需求增加。看涨期权可以防止价格上涨，而看跌期权可以防止价格下跌。

The hedging activity has been more visible in shorter-term contracts, as indicated by the recent relative richness of implied volatility determined by options contracts expiring on July 19 compared to those expiring on July 26. According to Kaiko, the July 19 expiry IV rose from 53% on Saturday to 62% on Monday, exceeding the July 26 expiry IV.

与 7 月 26 日到期的期权合约相比，7 月 19 日到期的期权合约所确定的隐含波动率最近相对丰富，这表明对冲活动在短期合约中更为明显。根据 Kaiko 的数据，7 月 19 日到期的 IV 值从周六的53%升至周一的62%，超过了7月26日到期的IV。

"The increase in IV on the July 19 contract suggests traders are paying more to hedge existing positions and protect against sharp price moves in the short term. This spike in near-term contracts IV indicates a level of uncertainty among traders," analysts at Kaiko noted in Monday’s edition of their newsletter.

Kaiko 分析师表示：“7 月 19 日合约 IV 的增加表明交易者正在支付更多费用来对冲现有头寸并防止短期内价格大幅波动。近期合约 IV 的飙升表明交易者之间存在一定程度的不确定性。”他们在周一版的时事通讯中指出。

Traders also expect ether volatility to be higher compared to bitcoin. According to data from Amberdata, the spread between Deribit's 30-day ether and bitcoin implied volatility indices (BTC DVOL and ETH DVOL) has largely averaged around 10% since late May, up significantly from 5% in the first quarter.

交易员还预计，与比特币相比，以太币的波动性更高。根据 Amberdata 的数据，自 5 月下旬以来，Deribit 的 30 天以太币和比特币隐含波动率指数（BTC DVOL 和 ETH DVOL）之间的价差基本平均在 10% 左右，较第一季度的 5% 大幅上升。

Crypto exchange Bybit and analytics firm BlockScholes made a similar observation in a report shared with CoinDesk on Monday.

加密货币交易所 Bybit 和分析公司 BlockScholes 在周一与 CoinDesk 分享的一份报告中也提出了类似的观察结果。

"Key findings indicate that investors are increasingly optimistic about ETH, particularly in anticipation of the first Ether Spot ETFs launching soon in the United States. This optimism is reflected in ETH's sustained volatility premium over BTC, which has persisted amid heightened market activity," the report noted.

“主要调查结果表明，投资者对 ETH 越来越乐观，特别是预计第一批以太币现货 ETF 即将在美国推出。这种乐观情绪反映在 ETH 相对于 BTC 的持续波动性溢价上，这种溢价在市场活动加剧的情况下持续存在。”报告指出。

The pickup in hedging activity in ether comes as traders are abuzz ahead of the launch of spot ether ETFs, which are expected to start trading next Tuesday. According to Gemini, spot ether ETFs could see a net inflow of $5 billion in the first six months, boosting ether's market value relative to bitcoin.

以太坊对冲活动的回升之际，交易员们在现货以太坊 ETF 推出之前热闹非凡，该ETF预计将于下周二开始交易。据 Gemini 称，现货以太坊 ETF 在前六个月可能会出现 50 亿美元的净流入，从而提高了以太坊相对于比特币的市值。

Moreover, traders, keeping in mind the "sell-the-fact" phenomenon that followed the debut of bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11, might be bracing for similar price volatility in ether.

此外，考虑到 1 月 11 日比特币 ETF 推出后出现的“抛售事实”现象，交易员可能会为以太坊类似的价格波动做好准备。

However, traders should note that the current market mood and ether's bullish positioning are far more muted compared to bitcoin in early January, suggesting a lower probability of a sell-the-fact pullback after the debut.

然而，交易者应该注意到，与 1 月初的比特币相比，当前的市场情绪和以太坊的看涨定位要温和得多，这表明首次亮相后出现抛售回调的可能性较低。

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team. He covers cryptocurrency markets and manages breaking news.

Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市场团队的联合总编辑。他负责报道加密货币市场并管理突发新闻。