2024 年以太幣 (ETH) 兌比特幣 (BTC) 繼續走低

一份新的數位資產：洞察和市場趨勢報告揭示了 ETH 在 2024 年表現不佳的一些原因。

After starting the year on a strong note, the price of Ether (ETH) began tapering off in mid-March. Although ETH picked up momentum in mid-May amid anticipation of the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in the United States, it has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) throughout 2024.

以太幣 (ETH) 的價格在年初表現強勁後，從 3 月中旬開始逐漸下跌。儘管由於預期以太幣 ETF 現貨將在美國獲批，以太幣 (ETH) 在 5 月中旬回升，但 2024 年其表現卻遜於比特幣 (BTC)。

ETH price started the year around $3,100 and surged as high as $3,180 on March 8. However, the rally fizzled out, and ETH prices slid to a yearly low of $2,180 on May 1, a 31% drawdown from the local top.

ETH 價格年初在3,100 美元左右，並於3 月8 日飆升至3,180 美元。 31%。

In comparison, BTC prices began 2024 around $52,000 and reached a yearly high of $64,600 on March 28. After a 23% drawdown, BTC prices reached a low of $49,800 on May 11.

相比之下，BTC 價格從 2024 年開始約為 52,000 美元，並於 3 月 28 日達到 64,600 美元的年度高點。

Zooming out, the drawdown profile of ETH experienced relatively deeper corrections compared to Bitcoin, with the largest drawdown in the 2022–24 cycle being –42% thus far. Previous cycles have seen deeper corrections, exceeding 65% during both the early and later phases of macro bull markets.

縮小範圍來看，與比特幣相比，ETH 的回撤情況經歷了相對更深的調整，2022-24 週期迄今為止最大的回撤為 –42%。之前的周期都出現過較大幅度的調整，在宏觀牛市的早期和後期都超過了65%。

A new Digital Assets: Insights and Market Trends report, a joint publication from CME Group and Glassnode, reveals some of the reasons why ETH has been underperforming BTC throughout 2024, as discussed below:

CME 集團和 Glassnode 聯合發布的新《數位資產：洞察和市場趨勢》報告揭示了 ETH 在 2024 年全年表現不佳的部分原因，如下所述：

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024 led to increased attention and capital flows toward BTC, leaving less enthusiasm for other digital assets like ETH.

2024 年 1 月，現貨比特幣 ETF 在美國獲得批准，導致人們對 BTC 的關注和資金流向增加，而對 ETH 等其他數位資產的熱情則減弱。

The increasing competition from other proof-of-work blockchains, such as Solana (SOL), Polygon (MATIC) and Avalanche (AVAX), has also contributed to the relative underperformance of ETH.

來自其他工作量證明區塊鏈（例如 Solana (SOL)、Polygon (MATIC) 和 Avalanche (AVAX)）的日益激烈的競爭也導致 ETH 的相對錶現不佳。

The Glassnode-CME Group report also noted that the “ETH/BTC ratio has continued to decline” during the 2023–24 cycle, suggesting that the general investor risk appetite is still low for the current cycle.

Glassnode-CME Group 報告還指出，在 2023-24 年周期中，“ETH/BTC 比率持續下降”，這表明當前週期的整體投資者風險偏好仍然較低。

According to the chart below, the ETH/BTC ratio has trended lower since the Merge, marking a period where Bitcoin outperforms Ethereum, a scenario that is still playing out at the moment.

根據下圖，自合併以來，ETH/BTC 比率呈下降趨勢，標誌著比特幣表現優於以太坊的時期，這種情況目前仍在上演。

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ETH Realized volatility in 2024 remains below previous cycles’

ETH 2024 年實現波動率仍低於先前週期

Using onchain metrics from market intelligence firm Glassnode, the report analyzed the Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to gauge the overall profitability of investors. The MVRV ratio tracks the divergence between the Market Cap and the Realized Cap and describes the average unrealized profit or loss held by the market.

該報告利用市場情報公司 Glassnode 的鏈上指標，分析了市場價值實現價值 (MVRV) 比率，以衡量投資者的整體獲利能力。 MVRV 比率追蹤市值和已實現上限之間的差異，並描述市場持有的平均未實現利潤或損失。

The report noted that although this metric has improved steadily since October 2023, its current value of around 1.8 is still way below the 6.2 and 3.8 peaks witnessed during the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.

報告指出，儘管該指標自 2023 年 10 月以來穩步改善，但目前約 1.8 的值仍遠低於 2017 年和 2021 年牛市週期期間的 6.2 和 3.8 峰值。

In comparison, the report shows Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio at around 2.5, indicating that the average BTC investor holds larger unrealized profits than ETH investors.

相比之下，報告顯示比特幣的 MVRV 比率約為 2.5，這表明 BTC 投資者平均持有比 ETH 投資者更大的未實現利潤。

This means that the investors still value BTC higher than ETH and that they would rather put their money in the pioneer cryptocurrency than in Ether.

這意味著投資者對 BTC 的估值仍然高於 ETH，並且他們寧願將資金投入先鋒加密貨幣而不是以太坊。

This sentiment is shared by K33 Research, who noted that although ETH has mirrored BTC's performance throughout the year, with the ETH/BTC ratio stubbornly trading near 3-year lows, the market has “under-appreciated Ether's potential.”

K33 Research 也認同這種觀點，他指出，儘管 ETH 全年的表現與 BTC 的表現一致，且 ETH/BTC 比率頑固地交易在 3 年低點附近，但市場「低估了 ETH 的潛力」。

K33 Research Senior analyst Vetle Lunde wrote:

K33 Research 資深分析師 Vetle Lunde 寫道：

“While the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first half of 2024 has supported BTC's outperformance, we expect the ETH ETF effect could lead to ETH outperformance in H2 2024.”

“雖然 2024 年上半年現貨比特幣 ETF 的批准支持了 BTC 的優異表現，但我們預計 ETH ETF 效應可能會導致 ETH 在 2024 年下半年表現優異。”

Related: BTC price risks ‘double top’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

相關：比特幣價格面臨「雙頂」風險——本週比特幣需要了解的 5 件事

ETH futures trade volumes trail Bitcoin's

ETH 期貨交易量落後比特幣

According to the Glassnode and CME Group report, futures markets remain the primary source of trade volume in digital asset markets, generally being “five times to ten times larger in size than spot trading volumes.”

根據 Glassnode 和 CME 集團的報告，期貨市場仍然是數位資產市場交易量的主要來源，通常「規模是現貨交易量的五倍到十倍」。

Although Ether’s open interest remains high in 2024, reaching an all-time high of $17.09 billion on May 29, as per Glassnode data, the derivatives trading volumes still remain significantly lower than those of Bitcoin.

儘管以太坊的未平倉合約在 2024 年仍然很高，根據 Glassnode 的數據，在 5 月 29 日達到了 170.9 億美元的歷史新高，但衍生性商品交易量仍然明顯低於比特幣。

High futures trading volumes indicate high investor confidence and enthusiasm, which could lead to more buying and higher prices.

高期貨交易量顯示投資者信心和熱情高漲，這可能會導致更多購買和更高的價格。

The chart below reveals that trade volumes in futures markets have picked up since October 2023, with Bitcoin seeing over $34.4 billion in daily contracts traded against Ethereum’

下圖顯示，自 2023 年 10 月以來，期貨市場的交易量有所回升，比特幣與以太坊的每日合約交易額超過 344 億美元。