2024 年以太坊 (ETH) 兑比特币 (BTC) 继续走低

一份新的数字资产：洞察和市场趋势报告揭示了 ETH 在 2024 年表现不佳的一些原因。

After starting the year on a strong note, the price of Ether (ETH) began tapering off in mid-March. Although ETH picked up momentum in mid-May amid anticipation of the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in the United States, it has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) throughout 2024.

以太坊 (ETH) 的价格在年初表现强劲后，从 3 月中旬开始逐渐下跌。尽管由于预期以太坊 ETF 现货将在美国获批，以太坊 (ETH) 在 5 月中旬回升，但 2024 年其表现却逊于比特币 (BTC)。

ETH price started the year around $3,100 and surged as high as $3,180 on March 8. However, the rally fizzled out, and ETH prices slid to a yearly low of $2,180 on May 1, a 31% drawdown from the local top.

ETH 价格年初在 3,100 美元左右，并于 3 月 8 日飙升至 3,180 美元。然而，涨势最终失败，ETH​​ 价格于 5 月 1 日跌至 2,180 美元的年度低点，较当地最高点下跌了 31%。

In comparison, BTC prices began 2024 around $52,000 and reached a yearly high of $64,600 on March 28. After a 23% drawdown, BTC prices reached a low of $49,800 on May 11.

相比之下，BTC 价格从 2024 年开始约为 52,000 美元，并于 3 月 28 日达到 64,600 美元的年度高点。在下跌 23% 后，BTC 价格于 5 月 11 日触及 49,800 美元的低点。

Zooming out, the drawdown profile of ETH experienced relatively deeper corrections compared to Bitcoin, with the largest drawdown in the 2022–24 cycle being –42% thus far. Previous cycles have seen deeper corrections, exceeding 65% during both the early and later phases of macro bull markets.

缩小范围来看，与比特币相比，ETH 的回撤情况经历了相对更深的调整，2022-24 周期迄今为止最大的回撤为 –42%。之前的周期都出现过较大幅度的调整，在宏观牛市的早期和后期都超过了65%。

A new Digital Assets: Insights and Market Trends report, a joint publication from CME Group and Glassnode, reveals some of the reasons why ETH has been underperforming BTC throughout 2024, as discussed below:

CME 集团和 Glassnode 联合发布的新《数字资产：洞察和市场趋势》报告揭示了 ETH 在 2024 年全年表现不佳的部分原因，如下所述：

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024 led to increased attention and capital flows toward BTC, leaving less enthusiasm for other digital assets like ETH.

2024 年 1 月，现货比特币 ETF 在美国获得批准，导致人们对 BTC 的关注和资金流向增加，而对 ETH 等其他数字资产的热情则减弱。

The increasing competition from other proof-of-work blockchains, such as Solana (SOL), Polygon (MATIC) and Avalanche (AVAX), has also contributed to the relative underperformance of ETH.

来自其他工作量证明区块链（例如 Solana (SOL)、Polygon (MATIC) 和 Avalanche (AVAX)）的日益激烈的竞争也导致 ETH 的相对表现不佳。

The Glassnode-CME Group report also noted that the “ETH/BTC ratio has continued to decline” during the 2023–24 cycle, suggesting that the general investor risk appetite is still low for the current cycle.

Glassnode-CME Group 报告还指出，在 2023-24 年周期中，“ETH/BTC 比率持续下降”，这表明当前周期的总体投资者风险偏好仍然较低。

According to the chart below, the ETH/BTC ratio has trended lower since the Merge, marking a period where Bitcoin outperforms Ethereum, a scenario that is still playing out at the moment.

根据下图，自合并以来，ETH/BTC 比率呈下降趋势，标志着比特币表现优于以太坊的时期，这种情况目前仍在上演。

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ETH Realized volatility in 2024 remains below previous cycles’

ETH 2024 年实现波动率仍低于之前周期

Using onchain metrics from market intelligence firm Glassnode, the report analyzed the Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to gauge the overall profitability of investors. The MVRV ratio tracks the divergence between the Market Cap and the Realized Cap and describes the average unrealized profit or loss held by the market.

该报告利用市场情报公司 Glassnode 的链上指标，分析了市场价值实现价值 (MVRV) 比率，以衡量投资者的整体盈利能力。 MVRV 比率跟踪市值和已实现上限之间的差异，并描述市场持有的平均未实现利润或损失。

The report noted that although this metric has improved steadily since October 2023, its current value of around 1.8 is still way below the 6.2 and 3.8 peaks witnessed during the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.

报告指出，尽管该指标自 2023 年 10 月以来稳步改善，但目前约 1.8 的值仍远低于 2017 年和 2021 年牛市周期期间的 6.2 和 3.8 峰值。

In comparison, the report shows Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio at around 2.5, indicating that the average BTC investor holds larger unrealized profits than ETH investors.

相比之下，报告显示比特币的 MVRV 比率约为 2.5，这表明 BTC 投资者平均持有比 ETH 投资者更大的未实现利润。

This means that the investors still value BTC higher than ETH and that they would rather put their money in the pioneer cryptocurrency than in Ether.

这意味着投资者对 BTC 的估值仍然高于 ETH，并且他们宁愿将资金投入先锋加密货币而不是以太坊。

This sentiment is shared by K33 Research, who noted that although ETH has mirrored BTC's performance throughout the year, with the ETH/BTC ratio stubbornly trading near 3-year lows, the market has “under-appreciated Ether's potential.”

K33 Research 也认同这种观点，他指出，尽管 ETH 全年的表现与 BTC 的表现一致，且 ETH/BTC 比率顽固地交易在 3 年低点附近，但市场“低估了 ETH 的潜力”。

K33 Research Senior analyst Vetle Lunde wrote:

K33 Research 高级分析师 Vetle Lunde 写道：

“While the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first half of 2024 has supported BTC's outperformance, we expect the ETH ETF effect could lead to ETH outperformance in H2 2024.”

“虽然 2024 年上半年现货比特币 ETF 的批准支持了 BTC 的优异表现，但我们预计 ETH ETF 效应可能会导致 ETH 在 2024 年下半年表现优异。”

Related: BTC price risks ‘double top’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

相关：比特币价格面临“双顶”风险——本周比特币需要了解的 5 件事

ETH futures trade volumes trail Bitcoin's

ETH 期货交易量落后于比特币

According to the Glassnode and CME Group report, futures markets remain the primary source of trade volume in digital asset markets, generally being “five times to ten times larger in size than spot trading volumes.”

根据 Glassnode 和 CME 集团的报告，期货市场仍然是数字资产市场交易量的主要来源，通常“规模是现货交易量的五倍到十倍”。

Although Ether’s open interest remains high in 2024, reaching an all-time high of $17.09 billion on May 29, as per Glassnode data, the derivatives trading volumes still remain significantly lower than those of Bitcoin.

尽管以太坊的未平仓合约在 2024 年仍然很高，根据 Glassnode 的数据，在 5 月 29 日达到了 170.9 亿美元的历史新高，但衍生品交易量仍然明显低于比特币。

High futures trading volumes indicate high investor confidence and enthusiasm, which could lead to more buying and higher prices.

高期货交易量表明投资者信心和热情高涨，这可能会导致更多购买和更高的价格。

The chart below reveals that trade volumes in futures markets have picked up since October 2023, with Bitcoin seeing over $34.4 billion in daily contracts traded against Ethereum’

下图显示，自 2023 年 10 月以来，期货市场的交易量有所回升，比特币与以太坊的每日合约交易额超过 344 亿美元。