以太坊可能即將迎來它的輝煌時刻

隨著老大哥比特幣在美國新交易所的支持下飆升至歷史新高，世界第二大加密貨幣今年仍保持上升勢頭

World No.2 cryptocurrency ether might be set for a price rally as companion exchange-traded funds prepare to hit the market, though the likely dumping of tokens from defunct Japanese exchange Mt. Gox is seen throwing a curve ball in the market.

隨著交易所交易基金準備上市，世界第二大加密貨幣以太幣的價格可能會上漲，儘管日本交易所 Mt. Gox 可能會傾銷代幣，這可能會為市場帶來波動。

Ether has remained in the wings this year as big brother bitcoin soared to all-time highs on the back of new U.S. ETFs, but some market players predict a price rally beyond its Nov. 2021 all-time high of $4,867.60 could be on the cards.

隨著新的美國 ETF 的支持，比特幣飆升至歷史高點，以太今年仍處於上升趨勢，但一些市場參與者預測，價格可能會上漲至 2021 年 11 月歷史高點 4,867.60 美元以上。

“Consider the fact that ethereum has roughly half the level of spot liquidity,” said Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at crypto exchange Kraken, referring to ether trading on exchanges versus bitcoin. “Half the amount of liquidity means that you need less amount of absolute dollars coming into the market to make the same price impact on ethereum.”

加密貨幣交易所 Kraken 策略主管 Thomas Perfumo 表示：「考慮到以太坊的現貨流動性水準大約是以太坊的一半。」他指的是交易所的以太幣交易與比特幣。 “流動性減半意味著你需要更少的絕對美元進入市場才能對以太坊產生相同的價格影響。”

Crypto graveyards are full of investors who thought they could reliably forecast these risky, choppy markets.

加密貨幣墓地充滿了投資者，他們認為自己可以可靠地預測這些充滿風險、動盪的市場。

The likely dumping of tokens from Mt. Gox has thrown a curve ball in the market in recent days, hitting bitcoin and ether. Other factors, like the timing of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the upcoming presidential election could also thump crypto.

最近幾天，Mt. Gox 可能拋售的代幣在市場上引發了一場曲線球，打擊了比特幣和以太幣。其他因素，例如聯準會降息的時機和即將舉行的總統選舉也可能會打擊加密貨幣。

“Market participants should watch for a comeback in volatility in traditional markets and crypto alike,” Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at crypto exchange Bitfinex, said in a research note. “Regulatory developments and macroeconomic policies will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.”

加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 衍生性商品主管 Jag Kooner 在一份研究報告中表示：“市場參與者應該關注傳統市場和加密貨幣市場波動性的捲土重來。” “監管發展和宏觀經濟政策將在塑造市場動態方面發揮至關重要的作用。”

Bitcoin soared to new peaks in March to as high as $73,803.25, two months after the first spot bitcoin ETFs started trading, from $45,947 before the launch. By contrast, ether has remained well off of its all-time high, trading only as high as $4,093.7 in March.

在第一隻現貨比特幣 ETF 開始交易兩個月後，比特幣在 3 月飆升至新高，從推出前的 45,947 美元飆升至 73,803.25 美元。相比之下，以太幣仍遠低於其歷史高點，3 月的交易價格僅為 4,093.7 美元。

That could be set to change when the ether ETFs hit the market as in the coming weeks, experts say, noting that the supply of ether is tight and that inflows into the ETFs could have a magnified effect on token price compared to bitcoin.

專家表示，當以太坊ETF 在未來幾週內上市時，這種情況可能會發生變化，他們指出，與比特幣相比，以太坊供應緊張，流入ETF 可能會對代幣價格產生更大的影響。

The new ether ETFs are not expected to attract the same amount of investor enthusiasm as the spot bitcoin ETFs, which have drawn nearly $38 billion in assets as of late June, according to Morningstar Direct.

據 Morningstar Direct 稱，新的以太坊 ETF 預計不會像現貨比特幣 ETF 那樣吸引同樣多的投資者熱情，截至 6 月底，現貨比特幣 ETF 已吸引近 380 億美元的資產。

Research from crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments, which is set to convert its existing ether trust into an ETF, estimated that the spot ether ETFs could see 25%-30% of the demand of the bitcoin funds.

加密資產管理公司 Grayscale Investments 計劃將其現有的以太坊信託轉換為 ETF，其研究估計，現貨以太幣 ETF 可能滿足比特幣基金需求的 25%-30%。

But scaling down to market capitalization – given that ether's market cap is about one-third of bitcoin’s – there could be a comparable price impact per dollar of inflows into the ether ETFs, said Zach Pandl, managing director of research at crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments.

但加密資產管理公司Grayscale Investments 的研究董事總經理 Zach Pandl 表示，考慮到以太坊的市值約為比特幣的三分之一，縮小到市值，流入以太坊ETF 的每美元資金可能會產生類似的價格影響。

“I do think it’s similar to what we were looking at for bitcoin earlier this year where we think there’ll be a substantial amount of new demand for the product and it will be interacting with a supply picture that is more constrained than I think is commonly understood,” he said.

“我確實認為這與我們今年早些時候對比特幣的看法類似，我們認為該產品將會出現大量新需求，並且它將與比我想像的更加受限的供應狀況相互作用人們普遍理解，”他說。

Unlike bitcoin, ether can be staked, or locked up for a certain amount of time, in exchange for yield. Just under 30% of the ether supply is staked, Pandl estimated, while another roughly 10% is locked in smart contracts. That reduces the supply of ether available for purchase for the new ETFs, which could drive up the price, he said.

與比特幣不同，以太幣可以被質押或鎖定一定時間，以換取收益。 Pandl 估計，不到 30% 的以太幣供應量被質押，另外約 10% 被鎖定在智能合約中。他表示，這減少了可用於購買新 ETF 的以太幣供應，這可能會推高價格。

“The reason bitcoin ETFs impacted price is because there was more demand for these ETFs than there was new supply of bitcoin,” said Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise. “In [ether], the supply situation is even worse.”

Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 表示：“比特幣 ETF 影響價格的原因是，對這些 ETF 的需求超過了比特幣的新增供應量。” “在[以太]中，供應情況更糟。”

Predictions for the impact the ether ETF might have on the token’s price vary widely, with global bank Standard Chartered estimating that ether could hit $8,000 by the end of the year. VanEck, which is set to launch a spot ether ETF, in May raised its price target for ether to $22,000 by 2030.

對於以太坊 ETF 可能對該代幣價格產生的影響的預測存在很大差異，全球銀行渣打銀行估計以太坊到今年年底可能會達到 8,000 美元。 VanEck 計劃推出以太幣現貨 ETF，並於 5 月將以太幣的目標價上調至 2030 年的 22,000 美元。

Yet the impact of the new ETFs could already be priced into ether, some market watchers warn. While it has remained off its all-time high, ether is still up more than 29% so far this year.

然而，一些市場觀察人士警告稱，新 ETF 的影響可能已經被以太坊定價。儘管以太幣仍低於歷史高點，但今年迄今仍上漲了 29% 以上。

“For bitcoin and ethereum, they’re more richly valued than they were at the launch of the bitcoin products earlier this year. That could argue for a slightly smaller effect,” said Grayscale’s Pandl.

「對於比特幣和以太坊來說，它們的估值比今年稍早推出比特幣產品時要高。這可能會導致效果稍小一些。