以太坊可能即将迎来它的辉煌时刻

随着老大哥比特币在美国新交易所的支持下飙升至历史新高，世界第二大加密货币今年仍然保持着上升势头

World No.2 cryptocurrency ether might be set for a price rally as companion exchange-traded funds prepare to hit the market, though the likely dumping of tokens from defunct Japanese exchange Mt. Gox is seen throwing a curve ball in the market.

随着交易所交易基金准备上市，世界第二大加密货币以太币的价格可能会上涨，尽管日本交易所 Mt. Gox 可能倾销代币，这可能会给市场带来波动。

Ether has remained in the wings this year as big brother bitcoin soared to all-time highs on the back of new U.S. ETFs, but some market players predict a price rally beyond its Nov. 2021 all-time high of $4,867.60 could be on the cards.

随着新的美国 ETF 的支持，比特币飙升至历史高点，以太今年仍然处于上升趋势，但一些市场参与者预测，价格可能会上涨至 2021 年 11 月历史高点 4,867.60 美元以上。

“Consider the fact that ethereum has roughly half the level of spot liquidity,” said Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at crypto exchange Kraken, referring to ether trading on exchanges versus bitcoin. “Half the amount of liquidity means that you need less amount of absolute dollars coming into the market to make the same price impact on ethereum.”

加密货币交易所 Kraken 策略主管 Thomas Perfumo 表示：“考虑到以太坊的现货流动性水平大约是以太坊的一半。”他指的是交易所的以太币交易与比特币。 “流动性减半意味着你需要更少的绝对美元进入市场才能对以太坊产生相同的价格影响。”

Crypto graveyards are full of investors who thought they could reliably forecast these risky, choppy markets.

加密货币墓地里充满了投资者，他们认为自己可以可靠地预测这些充满风险、动荡的市场。

The likely dumping of tokens from Mt. Gox has thrown a curve ball in the market in recent days, hitting bitcoin and ether. Other factors, like the timing of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the upcoming presidential election could also thump crypto.

最近几天，Mt. Gox 可能抛售的代币在市场上引发了一场曲线球，打击了比特币和以太币。其他因素，例如美联储降息的时机和即将到来的总统选举也可能会打击加密货币。

“Market participants should watch for a comeback in volatility in traditional markets and crypto alike,” Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at crypto exchange Bitfinex, said in a research note. “Regulatory developments and macroeconomic policies will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.”

加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 衍生品主管 Jag Kooner 在一份研究报告中表示：“市场参与者应该关注传统市场和加密货币市场波动性的卷土重来。” “监管发展和宏观经济政策将在塑造市场动态方面发挥至关重要的作用。”

Bitcoin soared to new peaks in March to as high as $73,803.25, two months after the first spot bitcoin ETFs started trading, from $45,947 before the launch. By contrast, ether has remained well off of its all-time high, trading only as high as $4,093.7 in March.

在第一只现货比特币 ETF 开始交易两个月后，比特币在 3 月份飙升至新高，从推出前的 45,947 美元飙升至 73,803.25 美元。相比之下，以太币仍远低于其历史高点，3 月份的交易价格仅为 4,093.7 美元。

That could be set to change when the ether ETFs hit the market as in the coming weeks, experts say, noting that the supply of ether is tight and that inflows into the ETFs could have a magnified effect on token price compared to bitcoin.

专家表示，当以太坊 ETF 在未来几周内上市时，这种情况可能会发生变化，他们指出，与比特币相比，以太坊供应紧张，流入 ETF 可能会对代币价格产生更大的影响。

The new ether ETFs are not expected to attract the same amount of investor enthusiasm as the spot bitcoin ETFs, which have drawn nearly $38 billion in assets as of late June, according to Morningstar Direct.

据 Morningstar Direct 称，新的以太坊 ETF 预计不会像现货比特币 ETF 那样吸引同样多的投资者热情，截至 6 月底，现货比特币 ETF 已吸引近 380 亿美元的资产。

Research from crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments, which is set to convert its existing ether trust into an ETF, estimated that the spot ether ETFs could see 25%-30% of the demand of the bitcoin funds.

加密资产管理公司 Grayscale Investments 计划将其现有的以太坊信托转换为 ETF，其研究估计，现货以太坊 ETF 可能会满足比特币基金需求的 25%-30%。

But scaling down to market capitalization – given that ether's market cap is about one-third of bitcoin’s – there could be a comparable price impact per dollar of inflows into the ether ETFs, said Zach Pandl, managing director of research at crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments.

但加密资产管理公司 Grayscale Investments 研究部董事总经理扎克·潘德尔 (Zach Pandl) 表示，考虑到以太坊市值约为比特币的三分之一，缩小到市值，流入以太坊 ETF 的每美元资金可能会产生类似的价格影响。 。

“I do think it’s similar to what we were looking at for bitcoin earlier this year where we think there’ll be a substantial amount of new demand for the product and it will be interacting with a supply picture that is more constrained than I think is commonly understood,” he said.

“我确实认为这与我们今年早些时候对比特币的看法类似，我们认为该产品将会出现大量新需求，并且它将与比我想象的更加受限的供应状况相互作用人们普遍理解，”他说。

Unlike bitcoin, ether can be staked, or locked up for a certain amount of time, in exchange for yield. Just under 30% of the ether supply is staked, Pandl estimated, while another roughly 10% is locked in smart contracts. That reduces the supply of ether available for purchase for the new ETFs, which could drive up the price, he said.

与比特币不同，以太币可以被质押或锁定一定时间，以换取收益。 Pandl 估计，不到 30% 的以太币供应量被质押，另外大约 10% 被锁定在智能合约中。他表示，这减少了可用于购买新 ETF 的以太币供应，这可能会推高价格。

“The reason bitcoin ETFs impacted price is because there was more demand for these ETFs than there was new supply of bitcoin,” said Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise. “In [ether], the supply situation is even worse.”

Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示：“比特币 ETF 影响价格的原因是，对这些 ETF 的需求超过了比特币的新增供应量。” “在[以太]中，供应情况更糟。”

Predictions for the impact the ether ETF might have on the token’s price vary widely, with global bank Standard Chartered estimating that ether could hit $8,000 by the end of the year. VanEck, which is set to launch a spot ether ETF, in May raised its price target for ether to $22,000 by 2030.

对于以太坊 ETF 可能对该代币价格产生的影响的预测存在很大差异，全球银行渣打银行估计以太坊到今年年底可能会达到 8,000 美元。 VanEck 计划推出以太币现货 ETF，并于 5 月份将以太币的价格目标上调至 2030 年的 22,000 美元。

Yet the impact of the new ETFs could already be priced into ether, some market watchers warn. While it has remained off its all-time high, ether is still up more than 29% so far this year.

然而，一些市场观察人士警告称，新 ETF 的影响可能已经被以太坊定价。尽管以太币仍低于历史高点，但今年迄今为止仍上涨了 29% 以上。

“For bitcoin and ethereum, they’re more richly valued than they were at the launch of the bitcoin products earlier this year. That could argue for a slightly smaller effect,” said Grayscale’s Pandl.

“对于比特币和以太坊来说，它们的估值比今年早些时候推出比特币产品时要高。这可能会导致效果稍小一些。”Grayscale 的 Pandl 说道。