ETF 的批准對以太坊意味著什麼

Marex Solutions 資深全球市場策略師 Ilan Solot 表示，SEC 最近的決定為以太坊以多種新方式取得成功奠定了基礎。

The recent approval of ETH ETFs by the SEC might eventually prove a more important event for Ethereum than it was for Bitcoin. While Bitcoin’s dominance, niche and value proposition as a store of value are well-established and unlikely to be challenged in the near term, Ethereum faces far stiffer competition, sometimes struggling to distinguish itself among narratives of smart contract platforms — until recently.

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 最近批准 ETH ETF 最終可能會證明對以太坊來說比對比特幣更重要的事件。雖然比特幣作為一種價值儲存手段的主導地位、利基市場和價值主張已經確立，並且在短期內不太可能受到挑戰，但以太坊面臨著更加激烈的競爭，有時甚至難以在智能合約平台的敘述中脫穎而出——直到最近。

Now we know there are two major crypto assets likely not at risk of being called securities by U.S. regulators. This might not mean much for retail investors, especially outside the U.S., but clearing up the regulatory uncertainty will influence many institutional investors in considering chains to use, build and invest in.

現在我們知道有兩種主要的加密資產可能不會面臨被美國監管機構稱為證券的風險。這對散戶來說可能意義不大，尤其是美國以外的投資者，但消除監管不確定性將影響許多機構投資者考慮使用、建造和投資連鎖店。

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Ethereum will likely continue dominating developer activity in the blockchain space, at least when it comes to large projects. According to Electric Capital’s Developer Report, Ethereum (and EVM chain in general) attracted vastly more developers than all other chains last year. The potential capital inflows from the ETFs, accessible institutional pathways like Coinbase’s BASE L2, and now this stamp of legitimacy could further strengthen its dominance.

以太坊可能會繼續主導區塊鏈領域的開發者活動，至少在大型專案方面是如此。根據 Electric Capital 的開發者報告，去年以太坊（以及整個 EVM 鏈）吸引的開發者數量遠多於所有其他鏈。來自 ETF 的潛在資本流入、Coinbase 的 BASE L2 等可訪問的機構途徑以及現在的合法性標誌可能會進一步加強其主導地位。

From a project point of view, the Ethereum chain has a robust pipeline including EigenLayer, Ethena, and BlackRock’s BUIDL. Just Ethena synthetic dollar (USDe) alone amassed in a few months the entire market cap of stablecoins on Solana, a staggering $3 billion. This doesn’t mean that other chains won’t host important crypto projects – they certainly will. But only Ethereum (for now) hosts protocols with the history and track record necessary for institutions to participate with meaningful capital. Think of AAVE or Uniswap, for example.

從專案角度來看，以太坊鏈擁有強大的管道，包括 EigenLayer、Ethena 和 BlackRock 的 BUIDL。僅 Ethena 合成美元 (USDe) 就在幾個月內積累了 Solana 上穩定幣的整個市值，達到驚人的 30 億美元。這並不意味著其他鏈不會託管重要的加密項目——它們肯定會的。但只有以太坊（目前）託管的協議具有機構以有意義的資本參與所需的歷史和記錄。例如，考慮 AAVE 或 Uniswap。

Lastly, a higher ETH price could kick-start the Ethereum DeFi economy, setting off a powerful feedback loop. To take a simple example: just on AAVE, there is ~$9 billion of ETH-linked collateral (between wETH, wstETH, weETH), plus another $1 billion or so in L2s. Sure, some of this collateral is used for delta-neutral strategies like recursive lending and points farming, but most of it is likely not.

最後，更高的 ETH 價格可能會啟動以太坊 DeFi 經濟，引發強大的回饋循環。舉一個簡單的例子：光是 AAVE 上，就有約 90 億美元的 ETH 相關抵押品（在 wETH、wstETH、weETH 之間），另外還有 10 億美元左右的 L2。當然，其中一些抵押品用於德爾塔中性策略，例如遞歸貸款和積分耕作，但大部分可能不會。

A higher ETH price – and collateral value – could act like a stimulus package for its crypto economy. It creates wealth effects, more spending, more investment, more leverage. Especially if ETH-related altcoins follow higher.

較高的 ETH 價格和抵押品價值可能會成為其加密經濟的刺激方案。它創造了財富效應，更多的支出、更多的投資、更多的槓桿。特別是如果與 ETH 相關的山寨幣跟隨走高的話。

It’s too early to say, but we might look back at this moment when Ethereum establishes itself as the “Amazon” of the digital asset economy. If scenario unfolds (still a big “if”), it might relegate other smart contract layer 1s to niche players (like “Etsys”), even if still supporting thriving communities. It’s unclear (to me at least), whether this is the best path for the industry; perhaps a more balanced multi-chain world would ultimately maximize adoption – we may never know. But at this stage, Ethereum dominance sure looks like the most likely outcome.

現在說還為時過早，但我們可以回顧以太坊確立了數位資產經濟「亞馬遜」地位的時刻。如果場景發生（仍然是一個很大的「如果」），它可能會將其他智能合約第 1 層降級為利基參與者（如「Etsys」），即使仍然支持蓬勃發展的社區。目前還不清楚（至少對我來說）這是否是該行業的最佳路徑；也許一個更平衡的多鏈世界最終會最大限度地提高採用率——我們可能永遠不會知道。但在現階段，以太坊的主導地位看起來確實是最有可能的結果。

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

註：本專欄所表達的觀點僅代表作者的觀點，不一定反映 CoinDesk, Inc. 或其所有者和關聯公司的觀點。

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