ETF 的批准对以太坊意味着什么

Marex Solutions 高级全球市场策略师 Ilan Solot 表示，SEC 最近的决定为以太坊以多种新方式取得成功奠定了基础。

The recent approval of ETH ETFs by the SEC might eventually prove a more important event for Ethereum than it was for Bitcoin. While Bitcoin’s dominance, niche and value proposition as a store of value are well-established and unlikely to be challenged in the near term, Ethereum faces far stiffer competition, sometimes struggling to distinguish itself among narratives of smart contract platforms — until recently.

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 最近批准 ETH ETF 最终可能会证明对以太坊来说比对比特币来说是更重要的事件。虽然比特币作为一种价值储存手段的主导地位、利基市场和价值主张已经确立，并且在短期内不太可能受到挑战，但以太坊面临着更加激烈的竞争，有时甚至难以在智能合约平台的叙述中脱颖而出——直到最近。

Now we know there are two major crypto assets likely not at risk of being called securities by U.S. regulators. This might not mean much for retail investors, especially outside the U.S., but clearing up the regulatory uncertainty will influence many institutional investors in considering chains to use, build and invest in.

现在我们知道有两种主要的加密资产可能不会面临被美国监管机构称为证券的风险。这对于散户投资者来说可能意义不大，尤其是美国以外的投资者，但消除监管不确定性将影响许多机构投资者考虑使用、建设和投资连锁店。

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Ethereum will likely continue dominating developer activity in the blockchain space, at least when it comes to large projects. According to Electric Capital’s Developer Report, Ethereum (and EVM chain in general) attracted vastly more developers than all other chains last year. The potential capital inflows from the ETFs, accessible institutional pathways like Coinbase’s BASE L2, and now this stamp of legitimacy could further strengthen its dominance.

以太坊可能会继续主导区块链领域的开发者活动，至少在大型项目方面是如此。根据 Electric Capital 的开发者报告，去年以太坊（以及整个 EVM 链）吸引了比所有其他链更多的开发者。来自 ETF 的潜在资本流入、Coinbase 的 BASE L2 等可访问的机构途径以及现在的合法性标志可能会进一步加强其主导地位。

From a project point of view, the Ethereum chain has a robust pipeline including EigenLayer, Ethena, and BlackRock’s BUIDL. Just Ethena synthetic dollar (USDe) alone amassed in a few months the entire market cap of stablecoins on Solana, a staggering $3 billion. This doesn’t mean that other chains won’t host important crypto projects – they certainly will. But only Ethereum (for now) hosts protocols with the history and track record necessary for institutions to participate with meaningful capital. Think of AAVE or Uniswap, for example.

从项目角度来看，以太坊链拥有强大的管道，包括 EigenLayer、Ethena 和 BlackRock 的 BUIDL。仅 Ethena 合成美元 (USDe) 就在几个月内积累了 Solana 上稳定币的整个市值，达到惊人的 30 亿美元。这并不意味着其他链不会托管重要的加密项目——它们肯定会的。但只有以太坊（目前）托管的协议具有机构以有意义的资本参与所需的历史和记录。例如，考虑 AAVE 或 Uniswap。

Lastly, a higher ETH price could kick-start the Ethereum DeFi economy, setting off a powerful feedback loop. To take a simple example: just on AAVE, there is ~$9 billion of ETH-linked collateral (between wETH, wstETH, weETH), plus another $1 billion or so in L2s. Sure, some of this collateral is used for delta-neutral strategies like recursive lending and points farming, but most of it is likely not.

最后，更高的 ETH 价格可能会启动以太坊 DeFi 经济，引发强大的反馈循环。举一个简单的例子：仅在 AAVE 上，就有约 90 亿美元的 ETH 相关抵押品（在 wETH、wstETH、weETH 之间），另外还有 10 亿美元左右的 L2。当然，其中一些抵押品用于德尔塔中性策略，例如递归贷款和积分耕作，但大部分可能不会。

A higher ETH price – and collateral value – could act like a stimulus package for its crypto economy. It creates wealth effects, more spending, more investment, more leverage. Especially if ETH-related altcoins follow higher.

更高的 ETH 价格和抵押品价值可能会成为其加密经济的刺激方案。它创造了财富效应，更多的支出、更多的投资、更多的杠杆。特别是如果与 ETH 相关的山寨币跟随走高的话。

It’s too early to say, but we might look back at this moment when Ethereum establishes itself as the “Amazon” of the digital asset economy. If scenario unfolds (still a big “if”), it might relegate other smart contract layer 1s to niche players (like “Etsys”), even if still supporting thriving communities. It’s unclear (to me at least), whether this is the best path for the industry; perhaps a more balanced multi-chain world would ultimately maximize adoption – we may never know. But at this stage, Ethereum dominance sure looks like the most likely outcome.

现在说还为时过早，但我们可以回顾一下以太坊确立了数字资产经济“亚马逊”地位的时刻。如果场景发生（仍然是一个很大的“如果”），它可能会将其他智能合约第 1 层降级为利基参与者（如“Etsys”），即使仍然支持蓬勃发展的社区。目前还不清楚（至少对我来说）这是否是该行业的最佳路径；也许一个更加平衡的多链世界最终会最大限度地提高采用率——我们可能永远不会知道。但在现阶段，以太坊的主导地位看起来确实是最有可能的结果。

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

注：本专栏中表达的观点仅代表作者的观点，并不一定反映 CoinDesk, Inc. 或其所有者和关联公司的观点。

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