2024 年美國大選：做好影響力準備

隨著美國總統大選民意調查顯示競選緊張，加密貨幣投資者正在為波動做好準備。但從中長期來看，選舉結果對加密貨幣的未來有多重要？

The U.S. presidential election is heating up, and cryptocurrency investors are keeping a close eye on the polls. But how important is the outcome of the election for the future of crypto in the medium to long run?

美國總統大選正在升溫，加密貨幣投資者正在密切關注民調。但從中長期來看，選舉結果對於加密貨幣的未來有多重要？

Looking at implied volatilities for BTC and ETH options, we can see a clear spike around the U.S. election date, which is not really surprising given that overall volatility is likely to increase around that date. Interestingly, BTC Put/Call Skew (the difference in price between a comparable call and put option) signals optimism across the curve. Even longer dated options with expiries beyond the election dates (>3 months) are showing a call premium over puts. This is rather surprising given the fact that the presidential race is on a knife’s edge, with the winner being anyone’s guess. It seems like the market is optimistic regardless of who wins the election.

看看 BTC 和 ETH 選擇權的隱含波動率，我們可以看到在美國大選日期前後出現明顯的峰值，考慮到整體波動性可能會在該日期前後增加，這並不令人意外。有趣的是，BTC 看跌/買權偏差（可比看漲期權和看跌期權之間的價格差異）預示著整個曲線的樂觀情緒。即使是在選舉日期之後（> 3個月）到期的較長期期權也顯示出看漲期權溢價高於看跌期權。這是相當令人驚訝的，因為總統競選正處於刀刃上，誰都在猜測獲勝者。無論誰贏得選舉，市場似乎都很樂觀。

Until President Biden dropped out of the race in July, it seemed like Trump was the clear favorite within the crypto community. In the aftermath of the failed assassination attempt on July 12th, bitcoin jumped from $56,000 to $65,000, on the back of expectations that the former president would benefit from the incident. Trump’s view on crypto seems to have changed over the years. As president, he voiced skepticism over crypto, claiming that they could be used to facilitate illegal activities such as drug trafficking. He also mentioned at one point that he sees bitcoin as a currency competing against the dollar. In more recent times however, he wholeheartedly embraced crypto, pledging that he wants the U.S. to become a “bitcoin superpower” and the “crypto capital of the planet” under his leadership. His campaign has started accepting bitcoin donations. He also mentioned that he would replace SEC Commission Chair Gary Gensler, a notoriously disliked figure among crypto proponents. This pivot seems to have worked. Most of the crypto community is seemingly rallying behind Trump.

在拜登總統於 7 月退出競選之前，川普似乎是加密貨幣社群中明顯最受歡迎的人。 7 月 12 日暗殺企圖失敗後，由於人們預期前總統將從該事件中受益，比特幣從 56,000 美元躍升至 65,000 美元。多年來，川普對加密貨幣的看法似乎已經改變了。身為總統，他對加密貨幣表示懷疑，聲稱它們可能被用來促進販毒等非法活動。他也曾一度提到，他將比特幣視為一種與美元競爭的貨幣。然而，最近，他全心全意地擁抱加密貨幣，承諾希望美國在他的領導下成為「比特幣超級大國」和「地球加密貨幣之都」。他的競選活動已開始接受比特幣捐款。他還提到，他將接替 SEC 委員會主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)，後者是加密貨幣支持者中眾所周知的不受歡迎的人物。這個支點似乎奏效了。大多數加密貨幣社群似乎都在支持川普。

But Trump is not the only one who seems to have discovered the growing demographic of crypto constituents. While the Biden administration has taken a rather strict approach with regard to crypto legislation, Vice President Harris has signaled a more positive stance toward the technology, rebuffing allegations that she would seek a crackdown on the industry. Harris’ support comes amid increased pressure from special interest groups promoting crypto. By August, the crypto industry had already spent an unprecedented $119M on donations, according to research by the non-profit Public Citizen. According to the report, crypto corporations have contributed almost half (44%) of all corporate money in this year’s election.

但川普並不是唯一一個發現加密貨幣選民不斷成長的人。儘管拜登政府在加密立法方面採取了相當嚴格的態度，但副總統哈里斯表示對該技術採取了更積極的立場，否認了有關她將尋求打擊該行業的指控。哈里斯的支持是在推動加密貨幣的特殊利益團體施加越來越大的壓力之際獲得的。根據非營利組織 Public Citizen 的研究，截至 8 月，加密貨幣產業的捐款支出已達到前所未有的 1.19 億美元。根據該報告，在今年的選舉中，加密貨幣公司貢獻了所有企業資金的近一半（44%）。

So which candidate is better for crypto? Maybe the better question is: does it really matter? Although it seems common wisdom that a Trump presidency would be more favorable toward the industry, the options market paints a cautiously optimistic image despite the highly uncertain outcome of the election. With an estimated 40% of American adults owning crypto, it seems like neither candidate can ignore the demands for a regulatory level-playing field any longer. Now whether or not the candidates will actually act upon their electoral promises is obviously a whole different story. But the numbers and the public discourse show how far the industry has come in the past years, effectively evolving from a libertarian niche into a powerhouse with significant lobbying power and influence.

那麼哪個候選人比較適合加密貨幣呢？也許更好的問題是：這真的很重要嗎？儘管人們普遍認為川普當選總統將對該行業更加有利，但儘管選舉結果高度不確定，選擇市場仍呈現出謹慎樂觀的形象。據估計，有 40% 的美國成年人擁有加密貨幣，看來兩位候選人都不能再忽視對監管公平競爭環境的要求。現在，候選人是否會真正兌現他們的選舉承諾顯然是一個完全不同的故事。但數字和公眾討論表明，該行業在過去幾年中取得了多大進展，有效地從自由主義利基市場發展成為擁有強大遊說力量和影響力的強大力量。

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

註：本專欄所表達的觀點僅代表作者的觀點，不一定反映 CoinDesk, Inc. 或其所有者和關聯公司的觀點。

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