2024 年美国大选：做好影响力准备

随着美国总统大选民意调查显示竞选紧张，加密货币投资者正在为波动做好准备。但从中长期来看，选举结果对加密货币的未来有多重要？ Gregory Mall 提出。

The U.S. presidential election is heating up, and cryptocurrency investors are keeping a close eye on the polls. But how important is the outcome of the election for the future of crypto in the medium to long run?

美国总统大选正在升温，加密货币投资者正在密切关注民意调查。但从中长期来看，选举结果对于加密货币的未来有多重要？

Looking at implied volatilities for BTC and ETH options, we can see a clear spike around the U.S. election date, which is not really surprising given that overall volatility is likely to increase around that date. Interestingly, BTC Put/Call Skew (the difference in price between a comparable call and put option) signals optimism across the curve. Even longer dated options with expiries beyond the election dates (>3 months) are showing a call premium over puts. This is rather surprising given the fact that the presidential race is on a knife’s edge, with the winner being anyone’s guess. It seems like the market is optimistic regardless of who wins the election.

看看 BTC 和 ETH 期权的隐含波动率，我们可以看到在美国大选日期前后出现明显的峰值，考虑到整体波动性可能会在该日期前后增加，这并不令人意外。有趣的是，BTC 看跌/看涨期权偏差（可比看涨期权和看跌期权之间的价格差异）预示着整个曲线的乐观情绪。即使是在选举日期之后（> 3个月）到期的较长期期权也显示出看涨期权溢价高于看跌期权。这是相当令人惊讶的，因为总统竞选正处于刀刃上，谁都在猜测获胜者。无论谁赢得选举，市场似乎都很乐观。

Until President Biden dropped out of the race in July, it seemed like Trump was the clear favorite within the crypto community. In the aftermath of the failed assassination attempt on July 12th, bitcoin jumped from $56,000 to $65,000, on the back of expectations that the former president would benefit from the incident. Trump’s view on crypto seems to have changed over the years. As president, he voiced skepticism over crypto, claiming that they could be used to facilitate illegal activities such as drug trafficking. He also mentioned at one point that he sees bitcoin as a currency competing against the dollar. In more recent times however, he wholeheartedly embraced crypto, pledging that he wants the U.S. to become a “bitcoin superpower” and the “crypto capital of the planet” under his leadership. His campaign has started accepting bitcoin donations. He also mentioned that he would replace SEC Commission Chair Gary Gensler, a notoriously disliked figure among crypto proponents. This pivot seems to have worked. Most of the crypto community is seemingly rallying behind Trump.

在拜登总统于 7 月份退出竞选之前，特朗普似乎是加密货币社区中明显最受欢迎的人。 7 月 12 日暗杀企图失败后，由于人们预期前总统将从该事件中受益，比特币从 56,000 美元跃升至 65,000 美元。多年来，特朗普对加密货币的看法似乎发生了变化。作为总统，他对加密货币表示怀疑，声称它们可能被用来促进贩毒等非法活动。他还一度提到，他将比特币视为一种与美元竞争的货币。然而，最近，他全心全意地拥抱加密货币，承诺希望美国在他的领导下成为“比特币超级大国”和“地球加密货币之都”。他的竞选活动已开始接受比特币捐款。他还提到，他将接替 SEC 委员会主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)，后者是加密货币支持者中众所周知的不受欢迎的人物。这个支点似乎奏效了。大多数加密货币社区似乎都在支持特朗普。

But Trump is not the only one who seems to have discovered the growing demographic of crypto constituents. While the Biden administration has taken a rather strict approach with regard to crypto legislation, Vice President Harris has signaled a more positive stance toward the technology, rebuffing allegations that she would seek a crackdown on the industry. Harris’ support comes amid increased pressure from special interest groups promoting crypto. By August, the crypto industry had already spent an unprecedented $119M on donations, according to research by the non-profit Public Citizen. According to the report, crypto corporations have contributed almost half (44%) of all corporate money in this year’s election.

但特朗普并不是唯一一个发现加密货币选民不断增长的人。尽管拜登政府在加密立法方面采取了相当严格的态度，但副总统哈里斯表示对该技术采取了更积极的立场，否认了有关她将寻求打击该行业的指控。哈里斯的支持是在推动加密货币的特殊利益团体施加越来越大的压力之际获得的。根据非营利组织 Public Citizen 的研究，截至 8 月，加密货币行业的捐款支出已达到前所未有的 1.19 亿美元。根据该报告，在今年的选举中，加密货币公司贡献了所有企业资金的近一半（44％）。

So which candidate is better for crypto? Maybe the better question is: does it really matter? Although it seems common wisdom that a Trump presidency would be more favorable toward the industry, the options market paints a cautiously optimistic image despite the highly uncertain outcome of the election. With an estimated 40% of American adults owning crypto, it seems like neither candidate can ignore the demands for a regulatory level-playing field any longer. Now whether or not the candidates will actually act upon their electoral promises is obviously a whole different story. But the numbers and the public discourse show how far the industry has come in the past years, effectively evolving from a libertarian niche into a powerhouse with significant lobbying power and influence.

那么哪个候选人更适合加密货币呢？也许更好的问题是：这真的重要吗？尽管人们普遍认为特朗普当选总统将对该行业更加有利，但尽管选举结果高度不确定，期权市场仍呈现出谨慎乐观的形象。据估计，有 40% 的美国成年人拥有加密货币，看来两位候选人都不能再忽视对监管公平竞争环境的要求。现在，候选人是否会真正兑现他们的选举承诺显然是一个完全不同的故事。但数字和公众讨论表明，该行业在过去几年中取得了多大进展，有效地从自由主义利基市场发展成为拥有强大游说力量和影响力的强大力量。

Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

注：本专栏中表达的观点仅代表作者的观点，并不一定反映 CoinDesk, Inc. 或其所有者和关联公司的观点。

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