經濟學家今年首次對俄羅斯利率決定產生分歧

在預測者一致做出三項決定後，包括摩根大通和匯豐控股在內的微弱多數預計俄羅斯央行週五將維持關鍵利率在 16% 不變。

Economists are split over a Russian interest-rate decision for the first time this year, highlighting the tough choice facing the central bank as the country’s war in Ukraine continues to overheat the economy and stoke inflation.

經濟學家今年首次對俄羅斯的利率決定產生分歧，突顯了俄羅斯央行面臨的艱難選擇，因為烏克蘭戰爭繼續導致經濟過熱並引發通膨。

After three decisions when forecasters were unanimous, a narrow majority that includes JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings Plc now expects the Bank of Russia to keep its key rate unchanged at 16% on Friday.

在預測者一致做出三項決定後，包括摩根大通和匯豐控股在內的微弱多數人士現在預計俄羅斯央行將在周五將關鍵利率維持在 16% 不變。

The rest of the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see an increase of 100 to 150 basis points. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reversed their call for a hold, joining Barclays Plc and Bloomberg Economics in predicting a hike to 17%.

接受彭博調查的其餘分析師預計漲幅為 100 至 150 個基點。高盛集團 (Goldman Sachs Group Inc.) 的經濟學家扭轉了他們的持股觀點，加入巴克萊銀行 (Barclays Plc) 和彭博經濟研究 (Bloomberg Economics) 的行列，預測利率將上漲至 17%。

“Domestic demand shows no signs of cooling,” Goldman’s analysts including Clemens Grafe said in a report. “Inflationary pressure continues to be fueled by a large output gap stemming from last year’s loose fiscal and monetary policy.”

「國內需求沒有顯示出降溫的跡象，」包括克萊門斯·格拉夫在內的高盛分析師在一份報告中表示。 “去年寬鬆的財政和貨幣政策導致巨大的產出缺口，繼續加劇通膨壓力。”

Local money markets have placed a 50% probability for a rate hike in June, and a 100% chance in July, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.

根據彭博經濟研究估計，當地貨幣市場認為 6 月升息的可能性為 50%，7 月升息的可能性為 100%。

Policymakers have said they will seriously consider raising the benchmark for the first time since December, a decision that may take on more weight as inflation expectations have started to rise again.

政策制定者表示，他們將認真考慮自去年 12 月以來首次提高基準，隨著通膨預期再次開始上升，這項決定可能會變得更加重要。

Still, it may be too soon for the bank to know if the currently high key rate isn’t filtering through to the economy, according to Olga Belenkaya, an economist at Finam in Moscow.

不過，莫斯科 Finam 經濟學家 Olga Belenkaya 表示，對央行來說，現在判斷目前的高關鍵利率是否會影響經濟可能還為時過早。

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

彭博經濟研究院是怎麼說的…

“The Bank of Russia’s signaling in recent weeks has been inconclusive. The central bank’s forward guidance will be hawkish, with the board likely to state that policy will remain restrictive as long as it takes to push inflation down persistently. Our base case is for inflation to be around 5.7% by the end of 2024. A more front-loaded tightening may allow the bank to start cutting the key rate as soon as October and bring the rate back to around 15% by December — if credit growth comes down.”

「俄羅斯央行最近幾週發出的信號尚無定論。央行的前瞻性指引將是強硬的，董事會可能會表示，只要能夠持續壓低通膨，政策就會保持限制性。我們的基本預測是，到2024 年底，通膨率將達到5.7% 左右。如果信貸成長下降。

Alex Isakov, Russia Economist

亞歷克斯‧伊薩科夫，俄羅斯經濟學家

Governor Elvira Nabiullina has kept rates on hold for the last five months. But with government spending on the rise, her statements have turned more hawkish, as economic growth, local demand and price increases have consistently outpaced the central bank’s expectations.

過去五個月，行長 Elvira Nabiullina 一直維持利率不變。但隨著政府支出的增加，她的言論變得更加鷹派，因為經濟成長、當地需求和物價上漲一直超出央行的預期。

At the same time, a persistent labor shortage has fueled a salary race, production has failed to keep pace with demand, and the government is facing its highest borrowing costs in nearly a decade.

同時，持續的勞動力短缺加劇了薪資競賽，生產未能跟上需求，政府正面臨近十年來最高的借貸成本。

Recent central bank comments indicate that rate-setters may be willing to wait.

最近央行的評論表明利率制定者可能願意等待。

Slowing inflation requires a cooldown in demand, which means maintaining tight monetary conditions for a long time, the central bank said in a May report. Additional tightening may be needed “if disinflation does not resume in the coming months,” it said.

央行在五月的報告中表示，通膨放緩需要需求降溫，這意味著長期維持緊縮的貨幣條件。報告稱，“如果未來幾個月通膨不恢復”，可能需要進一步收緊政策。

There are hints of easing consumer activity. Retail sales growth declined to 8.3% in April after reaching 11.1% in March in annual terms. However, the labor shortage grew even more acute with the unemployment rate falling to a new historical low of 2.6%.

有跡象顯示消費者活動將會放鬆。零售銷售增速繼 3 月以年率計算達 11.1% 後，4 月下降至 8.3%。然而，勞動力短缺問題更加嚴重，失業率跌至2.6%的歷史新低。

Economic growth accelerated in April to 4.4% from 4.2% in March, according to government estimates.

根據政府估計，4 月經濟成長從 3 月的 4.2% 加速至 4.4%。

The central bank may opt to toughen its rhetoric, while letting the current policy stand, Stanislav Murashov at Raiffeisenbank in Moscow wrote in a note. “This will give the central bank additional time to monitor the process of monetary policy transmission,” he said.

莫斯科 Raiffeisenbank 的 Stanislav Murashov 在一份報告中寫道，央行可能會選擇採取更強硬的措辭，同時維持當前政策。 「這將為央行提供更多時間來監控貨幣政策傳導過程，」他表示。

After a slowdown in March, inflation in Russia surged during April and May. Price growth accelerated for four weeks in a row and exceeds 8% annually, more than double the central bank’s target of 4%.

俄羅斯通膨在 3 月放緩後，在 4 月和 5 月期間飆升。物價成長連續四周加速，年均成長超過 8%，是央行 4% 目標的兩倍多。

The spike in price growth could intensify an uptick in inflation expectations — one of the key indicators watched by rate-setters. That gauge increased for the first time this year in May to 11.7%.

價格上漲可能會加劇通膨預期的上升——這是利率制定者關注的關鍵指標之一。該指標今年 5 月首次上升至 11.7%。

The central bank won’t have complete data on May inflation when policymakers convene this week, Finam’s Belenkaya said.

Finam 的貝倫卡亞表示，當政策制定者本週召開會議時，央行不會獲得有關 5 月通膨的完整數據。

“To make a decision to hike, the Bank of Russia has to first come to the conclusion that the already achieved tightness will not be enough even if the rate is kept at the current level for a longer period,” she said in a note. “This conclusion is not yet obvious.”

她在一份報告中表示：“要做出加息決定，俄羅斯央行必須首先得出這樣的結論：即使利率在較長時間內保持在當前水平，已經實現的緊縮政策也不夠。” “這個結論還不是很明顯。”