经济学家今年首次对俄罗斯利率决定产生分歧

在预测者一致做出三项决定后，包括摩根大通和汇丰控股在内的微弱多数预计俄罗斯央行周五将维持关键利率在 16% 不变。

Economists are split over a Russian interest-rate decision for the first time this year, highlighting the tough choice facing the central bank as the country’s war in Ukraine continues to overheat the economy and stoke inflation.

经济学家今年首次对俄罗斯的利率决定产生分歧，突显了俄罗斯央行面临的艰难选择，因为乌克兰战争继续导致经济过热并引发通胀。

After three decisions when forecasters were unanimous, a narrow majority that includes JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings Plc now expects the Bank of Russia to keep its key rate unchanged at 16% on Friday.

在预测者一致做出三项决定后，包括摩根大通和汇丰控股在内的微弱多数人士现在预计俄罗斯央行将在周五将关键利率维持在 16% 不变。

The rest of the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see an increase of 100 to 150 basis points. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reversed their call for a hold, joining Barclays Plc and Bloomberg Economics in predicting a hike to 17%.

接受彭博社调查的其余分析师预计涨幅为 100 至 150 个基点。高盛集团 (Goldman Sachs Group Inc.) 的经济学家扭转了他们的持有观点，加入巴克莱银行 (Barclays Plc) 和彭博经济研究 (Bloomberg Economics) 的行列，预测利率将上涨至 17%。

“Domestic demand shows no signs of cooling,” Goldman’s analysts including Clemens Grafe said in a report. “Inflationary pressure continues to be fueled by a large output gap stemming from last year’s loose fiscal and monetary policy.”

“国内需求没有显示出降温的迹象，”包括克莱门斯·格拉夫在内的高盛分析师在一份报告中表示。 “去年宽松的财政和货币政策导致巨大的产出缺口，继续加剧通胀压力。”

Local money markets have placed a 50% probability for a rate hike in June, and a 100% chance in July, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.

据彭博经济研究估计，当地货币市场认为 6 月加息的可能性为 50%，7 月加息的可能性为 100%。

Policymakers have said they will seriously consider raising the benchmark for the first time since December, a decision that may take on more weight as inflation expectations have started to rise again.

政策制定者表示，他们将认真考虑自去年 12 月以来首次提高基准，随着通胀预期再次开始上升，这一决定可能会变得更加重要。

Still, it may be too soon for the bank to know if the currently high key rate isn’t filtering through to the economy, according to Olga Belenkaya, an economist at Finam in Moscow.

不过，莫斯科 Finam 经济学家奥尔加·贝伦卡亚 (Olga Belenkaya) 表示，对于央行来说，现在判断目前的高关键利率是否会影响经济可能还为时过早。

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

彭博经济研究院是怎么说的……

“The Bank of Russia’s signaling in recent weeks has been inconclusive. The central bank’s forward guidance will be hawkish, with the board likely to state that policy will remain restrictive as long as it takes to push inflation down persistently. Our base case is for inflation to be around 5.7% by the end of 2024. A more front-loaded tightening may allow the bank to start cutting the key rate as soon as October and bring the rate back to around 15% by December — if credit growth comes down.”

“俄罗斯央行最近几周发出的信号尚无定论。央行的前瞻性指引将是强硬的，董事会可能会表示，只要能够持续压低通胀，政策就会保持限制性。我们的基本预测是，到 2024 年底，通胀率将达到 5.7% 左右。提前实施的紧缩措施可能会让央行最早在 10 月开始削减关键利率，并在 12 月前将利率恢复至 15% 左右——如果信贷增长下降。”

Alex Isakov, Russia Economist

亚历克斯·伊萨科夫，俄罗斯经济学家

Governor Elvira Nabiullina has kept rates on hold for the last five months. But with government spending on the rise, her statements have turned more hawkish, as economic growth, local demand and price increases have consistently outpaced the central bank’s expectations.

过去五个月，行长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜 (Elvira Nabiullina) 一直维持利率不变。但随着政府支出的增加，她的言论变得更加鹰派，因为经济增长、当地需求和物价上涨一直超出央行的预期。

At the same time, a persistent labor shortage has fueled a salary race, production has failed to keep pace with demand, and the government is facing its highest borrowing costs in nearly a decade.

与此同时，持续的劳动力短缺加剧了薪资竞赛，生产未能跟上需求，政府正面临近十年来最高的借贷成本。

Recent central bank comments indicate that rate-setters may be willing to wait.

最近央行的评论表明利率制定者可能愿意等待。

Slowing inflation requires a cooldown in demand, which means maintaining tight monetary conditions for a long time, the central bank said in a May report. Additional tightening may be needed “if disinflation does not resume in the coming months,” it said.

央行在五月份的一份报告中表示，通胀放缓需要需求降温，这意味着长期维持紧缩的货币条件。报告称，“如果未来几个月通胀不恢复”，可能需要进一步收紧政策。

There are hints of easing consumer activity. Retail sales growth declined to 8.3% in April after reaching 11.1% in March in annual terms. However, the labor shortage grew even more acute with the unemployment rate falling to a new historical low of 2.6%.

有迹象表明消费者活动将会放松。零售销售增速继 3 月份按年率计算达到 11.1% 后，4 月份下降至 8.3%。然而，劳动力短缺问题更加严重，失业率跌至2.6%的历史新低。

Economic growth accelerated in April to 4.4% from 4.2% in March, according to government estimates.

据政府估计，4 月份经济增长从 3 月份的 4.2% 加速至 4.4%。

The central bank may opt to toughen its rhetoric, while letting the current policy stand, Stanislav Murashov at Raiffeisenbank in Moscow wrote in a note. “This will give the central bank additional time to monitor the process of monetary policy transmission,” he said.

莫斯科 Raiffeisenbank 的斯坦尼斯拉夫·穆拉绍夫 (Stanislav Murashov) 在一份报告中写道，央行可能会选择采取更强硬的措辞，同时维持当前政策。 “这将为央行提供更多时间来监控货币政策传导过程，”他表示。

After a slowdown in March, inflation in Russia surged during April and May. Price growth accelerated for four weeks in a row and exceeds 8% annually, more than double the central bank’s target of 4%.

俄罗斯通胀在 3 月份放缓后，在 4 月和 5 月期间飙升。物价增速连续四周加速，年均增速超过 8%，是央行 4% 目标的两倍多。

The spike in price growth could intensify an uptick in inflation expectations — one of the key indicators watched by rate-setters. That gauge increased for the first time this year in May to 11.7%.

价格上涨可能会加剧通胀预期的上升——这是利率制定者关注的关键指标之一。该指标今年 5 月份首次上升至 11.7%。

The central bank won’t have complete data on May inflation when policymakers convene this week, Finam’s Belenkaya said.

Finam 的贝伦卡亚表示，当政策制定者本周召开会议时，央行不会获得有关 5 月份通胀的完整数据。

“To make a decision to hike, the Bank of Russia has to first come to the conclusion that the already achieved tightness will not be enough even if the rate is kept at the current level for a longer period,” she said in a note. “This conclusion is not yet obvious.”

她在一份报告中表示：“要做出加息决定，俄罗斯央行必须首先得出这样的结论：即使利率在较长时间内保持在当前水平，已经实现的紧缩政策也不够。” “这个结论还不是很明显。”