分散正在定義當前的加密貨幣市場

加密原生創投公司 Hack VC 的合夥人 Alex Botte 表示，數位資產市場的回報範圍為投資者提供了獨特的機會。

A key characteristic of the present crypto markets is the high level of dispersion, or the range of returns across different market segments.

目前加密貨幣市場的一個關鍵特徵是高度分散，或者說不同細分市場的回報範圍不同。

In the current liquid markets, infrastructure and technology sectors have outperformed consumer-oriented categories like gaming, metaverse, and entertainment tokens.

在目前的流動市場中，基礎設施和技術領域的表現優於遊戲、元宇宙和娛樂代幣等面向消費者的類別。

CoinDesk sector indices' performance since November 2021 (peak of the last bull market) showcases this trend.

CoinDesk 產業指數自 2021 年 11 月（上一次多頭市場的頂峰）以來的表現就體現了這一趨勢。

The "range" value, which denotes the difference between the maximum and minimum cumulative returns at each point in time, highlights the level of dispersion. Dispersion started high in Q4 2021 due to a surge in culture and entertainment-related developments. It then dropped in 2022 as the market crashed, correlations rose, and assets largely traded in sync.

「範圍」值表示每個時間點的最大和最小累積收益之間的差異，突顯了離散程度。由於文化和娛樂相關發展的激增，2021 年第四季的離散度開始走高。隨後，隨著市場崩潰、相關性上升以及資產交易基本上同步，該指數在 2022 年下降。

However, dispersion has been rising since 2023, picking up significantly in Q4 last year, with Currencies and Smart Contract Platforms (infrastructure) breaking away from the rest of the market. In 2024, dispersion is at a high over this period, with tokens in the Culture & Entertainment sector continuing to draw down, while BTC, ETH, and other smart contract platform tokens are outperforming.

然而，自 2023 年以來，分散度一直在上升，去年第四季顯著加劇，貨幣和智慧合約平台（基礎設施）脫離了市場的其他部分。 2024年，這段時期的離散度較高，文化娛樂領域的代幣持續回落，而BTC、ETH等智能合約平台代幣則表現優異。

Here are a few examples to illustrate the last point. The overall market's current maximum drawdown (using the CoinDesk Market Index) was -33% over this period. Compare that to some of the largest consumer tokens in the Gaming and Culture & Entertainment sectors, including Axie Infinity (game), Decentraland and The Sandbox (metaverses), and Apecoin (token associated with the NFT collection Bored Ape Yacht Club). These tokens' maximum drawdowns were -96%, -94%, -96%, and -94% respectively. They have not participated in the market's recovery this cycle.

下面舉幾個例子來說明最後一點。在此期間，整體市場目前的最大跌幅（使用 CoinDesk 市場指數）為 -33%。與遊戲和文化娛樂領域中一些最大的消費代幣進行比較，包括 Axie Infinity（遊戲）、Decentraland 和 The Sandbox（元宇宙）以及 Apecoin（與 NFT 系列 Bored Ape Yacht Club 相關的代幣）。這些代幣的最大回撤分別為-96%、-94%、-96% 和-94%。他們沒有參與本週期的市場復甦。

Another way to view dispersion is through the rolling 30-day average of the daily standard deviation of returns across the CoinDesk sector indices. Since Q4 last year, sector dispersion has mostly been above average. This elevated level of dispersion indicates that the market is no longer moving in unison, and individual sectors are experiencing different growth trajectories based on their underlying fundamentals and investor interest.

另一種查看離散度的方法是透過 CoinDesk 行業指數每日回報標準差的 30 天滾動平均值。自去年第四季以來，產業分散度大多高於平均值。這種分散程度的提高表明市場不再同步運行，各個行業根據其基本面和投資者興趣正在經歷不同的成長軌跡。

To delve deeper, we examine the number of billion-dollar-valued tokens in each sector (sectors are defined by Hack VC) as of five years ago compared to today. In 2019, Currencies dominated the market: BTC and BTC competitors. Today, half of the tokens are in the infrastructure sector (layer 1 and layer 2 blockchains). This sector has seen massive growth over the past five-plus years. We also see new sectors emerging. AI, for example, is a relatively new part of the market that brings together two of the most exciting emerging technologies: crypto and AI. While there is a lot of hype and promise, real benefits exist today. In the next five years, we expect additional sectors and sub-sectors will emerge.

為了更深入研究，我們檢查了五年前與今天相比每個部門（部門由 Hack VC 定義）價值十億美元的代幣數量。 2019 年，貨幣主導了市場：BTC 和 BTC 競爭對手。如今，一半的代幣位於基礎設施領域（第一層和第二層區塊鏈）。過去五年多來，該行業取得了巨大的成長。我們也看到新的產業不斷湧現。例如，人工智慧是市場中相對較新的部分，它匯集了兩種最令人興奮的新興技術：加密技術和人工智慧。雖然有很多炒作和承諾，但真正的好處現在已經存在。未來五年，我們預計將會出現更多產業和子產業。

This dispersion and development of new sectors over time is positive for active managers. It indicates growing market sophistication, with value being rewarded and fundamentals becoming increasingly important. Dispersion also offers significant opportunities for generating alpha. It makes it easier for active managers with alpha to outperform the market, though it also increases the risk of underperformance without a strong strategy.

隨著時間的推移，新行業的分散和發展對主動型基金經理人來說是積極的。它顯示市場日益成熟，價值得到回報，基本面變得越來越重要。分散也為產生阿爾法提供了重要的機會。它使擁有阿爾法的主動型基金經理人更容易跑贏市場，但如果沒有強有力的策略，它也會增加表現不佳的風險。

In this environment, investors must be more selective and knowledgeable about the sectors and projects they invest in. Active management becomes crucial as the market rewards those who can identify and capitalize on trends. These markets are also particularly favorable for investors with a deep understanding of technological advancements and the ability to discern long-term value from short-term hype.

在這種環境下，投資者必須對他們投資的行業和專案更加挑剔和了解。這些市場對於對技術進步有深入了解並能夠從短期炒作中辨別長期價值的投資者來說也特別有利。

The information herein is for general information purposes only and does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice and should not be used in the evaluation of any investment decision. Such information should not be relied upon for accounting, legal, tax, business, investment, or other relevant advice. You should consult your own advisers, including your own counsel, for accounting, legal, tax, business, investment, or other relevant advice, including with respect to anything discussed herein.

本文資訊僅供一般參考之用，並不構成投資建議，也不應用於評估任何投資決策。此類資訊不應作為會計、法律、稅務、商業、投資或其他相關建議的依據。您應該諮詢您自己的顧問，包括您自己的律師，以獲得會計、法律、稅務、商業、投資或其他相關建議，包括與本文討論的任何內容相關的建議。

This article reflects the current opinions of the author(s) and is not made on behalf of Hack VC or its affiliates, including any funds managed by Hack VC, and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of Hack VC, its affiliates, including its general partner affiliates, or any other individuals associated with Hack VC. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published sources and/or prepared by third parties and in certain cases has not been updated through the date hereof. While such sources are believed to be reliable, neither Hack VC, its affiliates, including its general partner affiliates, or any other individuals associated with Hack VC are making representations as to their accuracy or completeness, and they should not be relied on as such or be the basis for an accounting, legal, tax, business, investment, or other decision. The information herein does not purport to be complete and is subject to change and Hack VC does not have any obligation to update such information or make any notification

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