分散正在定义当前的加密货币市场

加密原生风险投资公司 Hack VC 的合伙人 Alex Botte 表示，数字资产市场的回报范围为投资者提供了独特的机会。

A key characteristic of the present crypto markets is the high level of dispersion, or the range of returns across different market segments.

当前加密货币市场的一个关键特征是高度分散，或者说不同细分市场的回报范围不同。

In the current liquid markets, infrastructure and technology sectors have outperformed consumer-oriented categories like gaming, metaverse, and entertainment tokens.

在当前的流动市场中，基础设施和技术领域的表现优于游戏、元宇宙和娱乐代币等面向消费者的类别。

CoinDesk sector indices' performance since November 2021 (peak of the last bull market) showcases this trend.

CoinDesk 行业指数自 2021 年 11 月（上一次牛市的顶峰）以来的表现就体现了这一趋势。

The "range" value, which denotes the difference between the maximum and minimum cumulative returns at each point in time, highlights the level of dispersion. Dispersion started high in Q4 2021 due to a surge in culture and entertainment-related developments. It then dropped in 2022 as the market crashed, correlations rose, and assets largely traded in sync.

“范围”值表示每个时间点的最大和最小累积收益之间的差异，突出了离散程度。由于文化和娱乐相关发展的激增，2021 年第四季度的离散度开始走高。随后，随着市场崩溃、相关性上升以及资产交易基本同步，该指数在 2022 年下降。

However, dispersion has been rising since 2023, picking up significantly in Q4 last year, with Currencies and Smart Contract Platforms (infrastructure) breaking away from the rest of the market. In 2024, dispersion is at a high over this period, with tokens in the Culture & Entertainment sector continuing to draw down, while BTC, ETH, and other smart contract platform tokens are outperforming.

然而，自 2023 年以来，分散度一直在上升，去年第四季度显着加剧，货币和智能合约平台（基础设施）脱离了市场的其他部分。 2024年，这一时期的离散度较高，文化娱乐领域的代币持续回落，而BTC、ETH等智能合约平台代币则表现优异。

Here are a few examples to illustrate the last point. The overall market's current maximum drawdown (using the CoinDesk Market Index) was -33% over this period. Compare that to some of the largest consumer tokens in the Gaming and Culture & Entertainment sectors, including Axie Infinity (game), Decentraland and The Sandbox (metaverses), and Apecoin (token associated with the NFT collection Bored Ape Yacht Club). These tokens' maximum drawdowns were -96%, -94%, -96%, and -94% respectively. They have not participated in the market's recovery this cycle.

下面举几个例子来说明最后一点。在此期间，整体市场目前的最大跌幅（使用 CoinDesk 市场指数）为 -33%。与游戏和文化娱乐领域一些最大的消费代币进行比较，包括 Axie Infinity（游戏）、Decentraland 和 The Sandbox（元宇宙）以及 Apecoin（与 NFT 系列 Bored Ape Yacht Club 相关的代币）。这些代币的最大回撤分别为-96%、-94%、-96% 和-94%。他们没有参与本周期的市场复苏。

Another way to view dispersion is through the rolling 30-day average of the daily standard deviation of returns across the CoinDesk sector indices. Since Q4 last year, sector dispersion has mostly been above average. This elevated level of dispersion indicates that the market is no longer moving in unison, and individual sectors are experiencing different growth trajectories based on their underlying fundamentals and investor interest.

查看离散度的另一种方法是通过 CoinDesk 行业指数每日回报标准差的 30 天滚动平均值。自去年第四季度以来，行业分散度大多高于平均水平。这种高度分散表明市场不再同步运行，各个行业根据其基本面和投资者兴趣正在经历不同的增长轨迹。

To delve deeper, we examine the number of billion-dollar-valued tokens in each sector (sectors are defined by Hack VC) as of five years ago compared to today. In 2019, Currencies dominated the market: BTC and BTC competitors. Today, half of the tokens are in the infrastructure sector (layer 1 and layer 2 blockchains). This sector has seen massive growth over the past five-plus years. We also see new sectors emerging. AI, for example, is a relatively new part of the market that brings together two of the most exciting emerging technologies: crypto and AI. While there is a lot of hype and promise, real benefits exist today. In the next five years, we expect additional sectors and sub-sectors will emerge.

为了更深入地研究，我们检查了五年前与今天相比每个部门（部门由 Hack VC 定义）价值十亿美元的代币数量。 2019 年，货币主导了市场：BTC 和 BTC 竞争对手。如今，一半的代币位于基础设施领域（第一层和第二层区块链）。过去五年多来，该行业取得了巨大的增长。我们还看到新的行业不断涌现。例如，人工智能是市场中相对较新的部分，它汇集了两种最令人兴奋的新兴技术：加密技术和人工智能。虽然有很多炒作和承诺，但真正的好处现在已经存在。未来五年，我们预计将会出现更多行业和子行业。

This dispersion and development of new sectors over time is positive for active managers. It indicates growing market sophistication, with value being rewarded and fundamentals becoming increasingly important. Dispersion also offers significant opportunities for generating alpha. It makes it easier for active managers with alpha to outperform the market, though it also increases the risk of underperformance without a strong strategy.

随着时间的推移，新行业的分散和发展对主动型基金经理来说是积极的。它表明市场日益成熟，价值得到回报，基本面变得越来越重要。分散还为产生阿尔法提供了重要的机会。它使拥有阿尔法的主动型基金经理更容易跑赢市场，但如果没有强有力的策略，它也会增加表现不佳的风险。

In this environment, investors must be more selective and knowledgeable about the sectors and projects they invest in. Active management becomes crucial as the market rewards those who can identify and capitalize on trends. These markets are also particularly favorable for investors with a deep understanding of technological advancements and the ability to discern long-term value from short-term hype.

在这种环境下，投资者必须对他们投资的行业和项目更加挑剔和了解。随着市场奖励那些能够识别和利用趋势的人，积极的管理变得至关重要。这些市场对于对技术进步有深入了解并能够从短期炒作中辨别长期价值的投资者来说也特别有利。

The information herein is for general information purposes only and does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice and should not be used in the evaluation of any investment decision. Such information should not be relied upon for accounting, legal, tax, business, investment, or other relevant advice. You should consult your own advisers, including your own counsel, for accounting, legal, tax, business, investment, or other relevant advice, including with respect to anything discussed herein.

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