2024 年加密貨幣預測：年中記分卡

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The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 2-year yield on Monday, marking a record 706 days of inversion in the yield curve, the longest such streak in bond market history. An inverted yield curve is often seen as a precursor to recession.

美國10年期公債殖利率週一跌破2年期公債殖利率，創下創紀錄的706天殖利率曲線倒掛，這是債券市場史上最長的連續倒掛。殖利率曲線倒掛通常被視為經濟衰退的前兆。

The yield on the 10-year note dropped to 3.72% on Monday, while the 2-year yield rose to 3.74%. This marks the first time since April that the 2-year yield has been higher than the 10-year yield.

週一，10 年期公債殖利率跌至 3.72%，而 2 年期公債殖利率則升至 3.74%。這標誌著自4月以來2年期公債殖利率首次高於10年期公債殖利率。

The inversion of the yield curve has been closely watched by economists and investors as a potential sign of an upcoming recession. However, other key indicators, such as consumer spending and corporate earnings, have remained strong this year, mitigating the impacts of inflation and supply chain issues to some extent.

殖利率曲線倒掛一直受到經濟學家和投資者的密切關注，認為這是即將到來的經濟衰退的潛在跡象。不過，今年消費者支出和企業獲利等其他關鍵指標依然強勁，一定程度上緩解了通膨和供應鏈問題的影響。

“The yield curve is screaming recession, but other data points like consumer spending, unemployment, and corporate earnings are showing a different story,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Avalon Wealth Advisors.

Avalon Wealth Advisors 首席投資長比爾·斯通 (Bill Stone) 表示：“收益率曲線正在急劇衰退，但消費者支出、失業率和企業盈利等其他數據點卻呈現出不同的情況。”

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the third quarter, slowing from the 2.6% growth rate in the second quarter. This slowdown was largely attributed to a decrease in government spending and an increase in imports.

美國經濟第三季年化成長率為1.3%，較第二季2.6%的成長放緩。這種放緩主要歸因於政府支出減少和進口增加。

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the third quarter, slowing from the 2.1% growth rate in the second quarter. This slowdown was likely due to the impact of inflation on household budgets.

約占美國經濟活動三分之二的消費者支出第三季年化成長率為1.7%，較第二季2.1%的成長速度放緩。這種放緩可能是由於通貨膨脹對家庭預算的影響。

Corporate earnings increased at an average annualized rate of 5.3% in the third quarter, slowing from the 10.2% growth rate in the second quarter. This slowdown was largely attributed to the impact of rising interest rates on corporate profits.

第三季企業獲利年均成長5.3%，較第二季10.2%的成長放緩。這種放緩主要歸因於利率上升對企業利潤的影響。

The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 3.5% in September, down from 3.7% in August. This marks the lowest unemployment rate since December 1969.

美國9月失業率降至3.5%，低於8月的3.7%。這標誌著自 1969 年 12 月以來的最低失業率。

Jobless claims, which measure the number of people filing for unemployment insurance, increased by 2,000 to a total of 217,000 for the week ending October 22, according to the Labor Department. This is still near the lowest level in 53 years.

據勞工部稱，截至 10 月 22 日當週，初請失業金人數增加了 2,000 人，達到 217,000 人。這仍接近 53 年來的最低水準。

Meanwhile, corporate bankruptcies have increased significantly in 2024. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, there were 2,040 corporate bankruptcies filed in the U.S. through October, up from 1,244 during the same period last year. This marks the highest number of corporate bankruptcies since 2011.

同時，2024年企業破產數量大幅增加。這是自2011年以來企業破產數量最多的一次。

The increase in corporate bankruptcies is largely attributed to the impact of rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues on businesses. Many companies that took on large amounts of debt during the pandemic are now struggling to repay it as interest rates rise.

企業破產的增加很大程度上歸因於利率上升、通貨膨脹和供應鏈問題對企業的影響。隨著利率上升，許多在疫情期間承擔大量債務的公司現在正難以償還債務。

“Higher rates make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money and service their debt,” said Dan DiMicco, former CEO of Nucor and author of “American Made: A Patriot’s Guide.” “This can lead to financial distress and, ultimately, bankruptcy for some companies.”

紐柯公司前執行長、《美國製造：愛國者指南》一書的作者丹·迪米科 (Dan DiMicco) 表示：“較高的利率使企業借貸和償還債務的成本更高。” “這可能會導致一些公司陷入財務困境，並最終導致破產。”

Rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues have also contributed to a decline in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in 2024. According to data from Refinitiv, the total value of announced M&A deals involving U.S. targets fell by 43% to $1.1 trillion in the first nine months of the year.

利率上升、通膨和供應鏈問題也導致 2024 年併購 (M&A) 活動下降。

This decline in M&A activity marks a sharp reversal from the record-breaking pace of deals in 2023, when the total value of announced M&A deals involving U.S. targets reached $1.9 trillion.

併購活動的下降標誌著與 2023 年創紀錄的交易速度急劇逆轉，當時涉及美國目標的已宣布併購交易總價值達到 1.9 兆美元。

The slowdown in M&A activity is largely attributed to the impact of rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues on corporate earnings and valuations. Many companies are now hesitant to acquire other businesses at high prices, especially given the uncertain economic outlook.

併購活動放緩很大程度上歸因於利率上升、通膨和供應鏈問題對企業獲利和估值的影響。許多公司現在對高價收購其他業務猶豫不決，特別是考慮到經濟前景的不確定性。

“The M&A market has cooled off significantly in 2024 as rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues have made corporations more cautious about acquiring other businesses at high prices,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Avalon Wealth Advisors.

Avalon Wealth Advisors 首席投資長比爾·斯通 (Bill Stone) 表示：“由於利率上升、通貨膨脹和供應鏈問題使企業對以高價收購其他業務更加謹慎，2024 年併購市場已顯著降溫。”

Despite the slowdown in M&A activity, there were still several notable deals that closed in 2024, including Microsoft’s $68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, Broadcom’s $61 billion acquisition of VMware, and Chevron’s $33.2 billion acquisition of Renewable Energy Group.

儘管併購活動放緩，但仍有幾筆值得注意的交易在2024 年完成，包括微軟以687 億美元收購動視暴雪、博通以610 億美元收購VMware，以及雪佛龍以332 億美元收購再生能源集團。