2024 年加密货币预测：年中记分卡

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The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 2-year yield on Monday, marking a record 706 days of inversion in the yield curve, the longest such streak in bond market history. An inverted yield curve is often seen as a precursor to recession.

美国10年期国债收益率周一跌破2年期国债收益率，创下创纪录的706天收益率曲线倒挂，这是债券市场历史上最长的连续倒挂。收益率曲线倒挂通常被视为经济衰退的前兆。

The yield on the 10-year note dropped to 3.72% on Monday, while the 2-year yield rose to 3.74%. This marks the first time since April that the 2-year yield has been higher than the 10-year yield.

周一，10 年期国债收益率跌至 3.72%，而 2 年期国债收益率则升至 3.74%。这标志着自4月份以来2年期国债收益率首次高于10年期国债收益率。

The inversion of the yield curve has been closely watched by economists and investors as a potential sign of an upcoming recession. However, other key indicators, such as consumer spending and corporate earnings, have remained strong this year, mitigating the impacts of inflation and supply chain issues to some extent.

收益率曲线倒挂一直受到经济学家和投资者的密切关注，认为这是即将到来的经济衰退的潜在迹象。不过，今年消费者支出和企业盈利等其他关键指标依然强劲，一定程度上缓解了通胀和供应链问题的影响。

“The yield curve is screaming recession, but other data points like consumer spending, unemployment, and corporate earnings are showing a different story,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Avalon Wealth Advisors.

Avalon Wealth Advisors 首席投资官比尔·斯通 (Bill Stone) 表示：“收益率曲线正在急剧衰退，但消费者支出、失业率和企业盈利等其他数据点却呈现出不同的情况。”

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the third quarter, slowing from the 2.6% growth rate in the second quarter. This slowdown was largely attributed to a decrease in government spending and an increase in imports.

美国经济第三季度年化增长率为1.3%，较第二季度2.6%的增速有所放缓。这种放缓主要归因于政府支出减少和进口增加。

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the third quarter, slowing from the 2.1% growth rate in the second quarter. This slowdown was likely due to the impact of inflation on household budgets.

约占美国经济活动三分之二的消费者支出第三季度年化增长率为1.7%，较第二季度2.1%的增速有所放缓。这种放缓可能是由于通货膨胀对家庭预算的影响。

Corporate earnings increased at an average annualized rate of 5.3% in the third quarter, slowing from the 10.2% growth rate in the second quarter. This slowdown was largely attributed to the impact of rising interest rates on corporate profits.

第三季度企业盈利年均增长5.3%，较第二季度10.2%的增速有所放缓。这种放缓主要归因于利率上升对企业利润的影响。

The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 3.5% in September, down from 3.7% in August. This marks the lowest unemployment rate since December 1969.

美国9月失业率降至3.5%，低于8月的3.7%。这标志着自 1969 年 12 月以来的最低失业率。

Jobless claims, which measure the number of people filing for unemployment insurance, increased by 2,000 to a total of 217,000 for the week ending October 22, according to the Labor Department. This is still near the lowest level in 53 years.

据劳工部称，截至 10 月 22 日当周，初请失业金人数增加了 2,000 人，达到 217,000 人。这仍接近 53 年来的最低水平。

Meanwhile, corporate bankruptcies have increased significantly in 2024. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, there were 2,040 corporate bankruptcies filed in the U.S. through October, up from 1,244 during the same period last year. This marks the highest number of corporate bankruptcies since 2011.

与此同时，2024年企业破产数量大幅增加。标普全球市场情报数据显示，截至10月，美国有2,040家企业申请破产，高于去年同期的1,244家。这是自2011年以来企业破产数量最多的一次。

The increase in corporate bankruptcies is largely attributed to the impact of rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues on businesses. Many companies that took on large amounts of debt during the pandemic are now struggling to repay it as interest rates rise.

企业破产的增加很大程度上归因于利率上升、通货膨胀和供应链问题对企业的影响。随着利率上升，许多在大流行期间承担大量债务的公司现在正难以偿还债务。

“Higher rates make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money and service their debt,” said Dan DiMicco, former CEO of Nucor and author of “American Made: A Patriot’s Guide.” “This can lead to financial distress and, ultimately, bankruptcy for some companies.”

纽柯公司前首席执行官、《美国制造：爱国者指南》一书的作者丹·迪米科 (Dan DiMicco) 表示：“较高的利率使企业借贷和偿还债务的成本更高。” “这可能会导致一些公司陷入财务困境，并最终导致破产。”

Rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues have also contributed to a decline in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in 2024. According to data from Refinitiv, the total value of announced M&A deals involving U.S. targets fell by 43% to $1.1 trillion in the first nine months of the year.

利率上升、通胀和供应链问题也导致 2024 年并购 (M&A) 活动下降。根据 Refinitiv 的数据，涉及美国目标的已宣布并购交易总价值下降 43%，至 1.1 万亿美元今年的前九个月。

This decline in M&A activity marks a sharp reversal from the record-breaking pace of deals in 2023, when the total value of announced M&A deals involving U.S. targets reached $1.9 trillion.

并购活动的下降标志着与 2023 年创纪录的交易速度急剧逆转，当时涉及美国目标的已宣布并购交易总价值达到 1.9 万亿美元。

The slowdown in M&A activity is largely attributed to the impact of rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues on corporate earnings and valuations. Many companies are now hesitant to acquire other businesses at high prices, especially given the uncertain economic outlook.

并购活动放缓很大程度上归因于利率上升、通胀和供应链问题对企业盈利和估值的影响。许多公司现在对高价收购其他业务犹豫不决，特别是考虑到经济前景的不确定性。

“The M&A market has cooled off significantly in 2024 as rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain issues have made corporations more cautious about acquiring other businesses at high prices,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Avalon Wealth Advisors.

Avalon Wealth Advisors 首席投资官比尔·斯通 (Bill Stone) 表示：“由于利率上升、通货膨胀和供应链问题使企业对以高价收购其他业务更加谨慎，2024 年并购市场已显着降温。”

Despite the slowdown in M&A activity, there were still several notable deals that closed in 2024, including Microsoft’s $68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, Broadcom’s $61 billion acquisition of VMware, and Chevron’s $33.2 billion acquisition of Renewable Energy Group.

尽管并购活动放缓，但仍有几笔值得注意的交易在 2024 年完成，包括微软以 687 亿美元收购动视暴雪、博通以 610 亿美元收购 VMware，以及雪佛龙以 332 亿美元收购可再生能源集团。