加密貨幣手冊：如何投資科技的未來

在每一個案例中，投資人都看到了真相：這些科技將改變世界，而且可以賺很多錢。混亂源於不知道錢該花在哪裡。

The early 1900s saw a boom in the automobile industry, with new companies emerging rapidly. However, the industry was still nascent, and it was unclear which companies would ultimately succeed.

1900 年代初期，汽車工業蓬勃發展，新公司迅速湧現。然而，該行業仍處於起步階段，目前尚不清楚哪些公司最終會取得成功。

This led to a lot of speculation in auto stocks, with some companies seeing their stock prices soar, only to crash when they failed to deliver on their promises.

這引發了汽車股的大量投機，一些公司股價飆升，但未能兌現承諾後股價暴跌。

Many auto companies went public despite having a limited ability to actually make automobiles. But slowly, investors began to understand that auto production was expensive, and only companies that were well-capitalized and had mass production techniques would survive.

儘管實際製造汽車的能力有限，許多汽車公司還是上市了。但慢慢地，投資人開始明白，汽車生產成本高昂，只有資本雄厚、擁有大規模生產技術的公司才能生存。

Which is why the Model T was a game-changer. Marketed as the first affordable automobile, it was durable, reliable, and easy to maintain. (Ford eventually got the price down to $260, or about $4,000 today.) It could handle rough roads without losing a wheel. Soon, Model Ts were everywhere, which made it easy to find parts and service.

這就是為什麼 T 型車能夠改變遊戲規則。它作為第一款經濟型汽車上市，耐用、可靠且易於維護。 （福特最終將價格降至 260 美元，相當於今天的 4,000 美元左右。）它可以在崎嶇不平的道路上行駛而不會丟失車輪。很快，T 型車隨處可見，這使得尋找零件和服務變得容易。

Surprisingly, Ford did not go public in those early days: the company was privately held by Henry Ford and a small circle of investors. But the company’s success fueled a renewed boom around other auto stocks, as investors placed their bets on the “next Ford.”

令人驚訝的是，福特早期並沒有上市：該公司由亨利·福特和一小群投資者私人持有。但該公司的成功推動了其他汽車股的新一輪繁榮，因為投資者將賭注押在了「下一個福特」上。

This continued until the famous stock market crash of 1929, when the auto industry shrank into a few major players who could withstand the Great Depression (notably Chrysler, General Motors, and Ford). Most auto stocks plummeted, and their cars have survived only in vintage auto museums.

這種情況一直持續到 1929 年著名的股市崩盤，當時汽車業只剩下幾家能夠抵禦大蕭條的主要參與者（特別是克萊斯勒、通用汽車和福特）。大多數汽車股暴跌，它們的汽車只在老式汽車博物館中倖存下來。

The investing principle is that in emerging industries, we must distinguish between companies with real value, and companies built on hype. Ford had developed something of real value: an auto company that could scale. Meanwhile, a lot of investors poured money into two guys in a garage.

投資的原則是，在新興產業，要區分有真正價值的公司和炒作的公司。福特開發了一些真正有價值的東西：一家可以規模化的汽車公司。與此同時，許多投資者向車庫裡的兩個人投入了資金。

If this sounds familiar, it’s because the crypto industry is in its early stages of valuation, where nobody is sure what to pay for anything. But there are long-term lessons we can learn from this time in history.

如果這聽起來很熟悉，那是因為加密產業正處於估值的早期階段，沒有人知道要為任何東西付出什麼代價。但我們可以從這段歷史中學到長期的教訓。

Survival and Consolidation

生存與鞏固

The U.S. didn’t need 100 different auto companies. It needed, like, three.

美國不需要 100 家不同的汽車公司。它需要三個。

Today, the world doesn’t need 100 different blockchain platforms. It needs, like, three. If you’re starting a new blockchain platform today, it’s like starting a tiny auto company in 1908. How are you going to attract developers, to build more dapps, to attract more users?

如今，世界不需要 100 個不同的區塊鏈平台。它需要三個。如果您今天要創建一個新的區塊鏈平台，就像在 1908 年創建小型汽車公司一樣。

The layer-1 battle has already been won: it’s Ethereum. This could change in the future, of course, but understand that blockchains develop huge economies of scale that become self-reinforcing feedback loops: more developers, more dapps, more users.

Layer-1 之戰已經勝利：它是以太坊。當然，這種情況將來可能會改變，但要明白區塊鏈會發展出巨大的規模經濟，成為自我強化的回饋循環：更多的開發人員、更多的 dapp、更多的用戶。

The principle is that over time, technology industries tend to consolidate among a few large companies. This certainly happened with automobiles, and it’s our investing principle with crypto (see our Guide to Sector Investing for more).

原則是，隨著時間的推移，科技業往往會在少數大公司之間進行整合。這肯定發生在汽車領域，這是我們對加密貨幣的投資原則（有關更多信息，請參閱我們的行業投資指南）。

This is due to two things: survival (smaller companies are eventually crushed by the big ones), and consolidation (smaller companies are gobbled up by the big ones).

這是由於兩件事：生存（小公司最終被大公司壓垮）和整合（小公司被大公司吞併）。

For investors, the principle is pretty simple: invest in the crypto companies that are clearly leading their category, and that seem to have a sustainable competitive advantage (as Ford did with its assembly lines and Model T economies of scale).

對於投資者來說，原則非常簡單：投資那些明顯領先其類別、並且似乎具有可持續競爭優勢的加密貨幣公司（就像福特在其裝配線和 T 型車規模經濟方面所做的那樣）。

Look for: Daily Active Users, Market Capitalization, Transaction Volume, Total Value Locked.

尋找：每日活躍用戶、市值、交易量、鎖定總價值。

Innovation and Scalability

創新和可擴展性

We all know the stories of reigning tech companies that failed to innovate with the times: Kodak and digital photography, BlackBerry and mobile phones, Yahoo and search.

我們都知道那些未能與時俱進創新的統治科技公司的故事：柯達和數位攝影、黑莓和手機、雅虎和搜尋。

But what about the crypto companies that failed to keep up?

但那些未能跟上腳步的加密貨幣公司呢？

Bitcoin Cash, for example, was a spinoff project that tried to solve the primary problems of bitcoin. BTC is famously slow and expensive; BCH was supposed to be fast and cheap. But Bitcoin Cash didn’t solve these problems quickly enough, and today only a few BCH holders still believe in it.

例如，比特幣現金是一個試圖解決比特幣主要問題的衍生項目。 BTC 是出了名的緩慢且昂貴； BCH 應該是快速且便宜的。但比特幣現金並沒有足夠快地解決這些問題，如今只有少數 BCH 持有者仍然相信它。

Compare this with Ethereum, a good example of a company with an inferior technology (Proof of Work) that successfully pivoted to a better one (Proof of Stake). Ethereum is also slow and expensive to use, but has developed layer-2 scaling solutions that are making it faster and better.

與以太坊相比，以太坊是一家使用較差技術（工作量證明）成功轉向更好技術（權益證明）的公司的一個很好的例子。以太坊使用起來也很慢且昂貴，但它開發了第 2 層擴展解決方案，使其更快更好。

Ethereum’s advantage comes from its network of active developers (who meet up regularly IRL around the world), its Ethereum Improvement Proposal process (which allows structured and community-driven innovation), and the humble leadership of Vitalik Buterin (its spiritual CEO).

以太坊的優勢來自於其活躍的開發人員網絡（他們定期在世界各地的現實生活中聚會）、以太坊改進提案流程（允許結構化和社區驅動的創新）以及Vitalik Buterin（其精神首席執行官）的謙遜領導。

Just as Ford was able to pump out 15 million Model Ts on its assembly lines, then reinvest the profits into further innovations, the best blockchains have a self-reinforcing feedback loop of good ideas and good execution, at scale. Invest in crypto companies that can innovate and scale.

正如福特能夠在其裝配線上生產 1500 萬輛 T 型汽車，然後將利潤再投資於進一步的創新一樣，最好的區塊鏈也有一個自我強化的良好想法和大規模執行的反饋循環。投資能夠創新和擴展的加密貨幣公司。

Look for: Developer Activity, EIP Improvements/Proposals, New Features/Upgrades, Transactions Per Second, Gas Fees/

尋找：開發者活動、EIP 改進/提案、新功能/升級、每秒交易量、Gas 費用/