加密货币手册：如何投资技术的未来

在每一个案例中，投资者都看到了真相：这些技术将改变世界，而且可以赚很多钱。混乱源于不知道钱该花在哪里。

The early 1900s saw a boom in the automobile industry, with new companies emerging rapidly. However, the industry was still nascent, and it was unclear which companies would ultimately succeed.

1900 年代初期，汽车工业蓬勃发展，新公司迅速涌现。然而，该行业仍处于起步阶段，尚不清楚哪些公司最终会取得成功。

This led to a lot of speculation in auto stocks, with some companies seeing their stock prices soar, only to crash when they failed to deliver on their promises.

这引发了汽车股的大量投机，一些公司股价飙升，但未能兑现承诺后股价暴跌。

Many auto companies went public despite having a limited ability to actually make automobiles. But slowly, investors began to understand that auto production was expensive, and only companies that were well-capitalized and had mass production techniques would survive.

尽管实际制造汽车的能力有限，许多汽车公司还是上市了。但慢慢地，投资者开始明白，汽车生产成本高昂，只有资本雄厚、拥有大规模生产技术的公司才能生存。

Which is why the Model T was a game-changer. Marketed as the first affordable automobile, it was durable, reliable, and easy to maintain. (Ford eventually got the price down to $260, or about $4,000 today.) It could handle rough roads without losing a wheel. Soon, Model Ts were everywhere, which made it easy to find parts and service.

这就是为什么 T 型车能够改变游戏规则。它作为第一款经济型汽车上市，耐用、可靠且易于维护。 （福特最终将价格降至 260 美元，相当于今天的 4,000 美元左右。）它可以在崎岖不平的道路上行驶而不会丢失车轮。很快，T 型车随处可见，这使得寻找零件和服务变得很容易。

Surprisingly, Ford did not go public in those early days: the company was privately held by Henry Ford and a small circle of investors. But the company’s success fueled a renewed boom around other auto stocks, as investors placed their bets on the “next Ford.”

令人惊讶的是，福特早期并没有上市：该公司由亨利·福特和一小群投资者私人持有。但该公司的成功推动了其他汽车股的新一轮繁荣，因为投资者将赌注押在了“下一个福特”上。

This continued until the famous stock market crash of 1929, when the auto industry shrank into a few major players who could withstand the Great Depression (notably Chrysler, General Motors, and Ford). Most auto stocks plummeted, and their cars have survived only in vintage auto museums.

这种情况一直持续到 1929 年著名的股市崩盘，当时汽车行业只剩下几家能够抵御大萧条的主要参与者（特别是克莱斯勒、通用汽车和福特）。大多数汽车股暴跌，它们的汽车只在老式汽车博物馆中幸存下来。

The investing principle is that in emerging industries, we must distinguish between companies with real value, and companies built on hype. Ford had developed something of real value: an auto company that could scale. Meanwhile, a lot of investors poured money into two guys in a garage.

投资的原则是，在新兴行业，要区分有真正价值的公司和炒作的公司。福特开发了一些真正有价值的东西：一家可以规模化的汽车公司。与此同时，许多投资者向车库里的两个人投入了资金。

If this sounds familiar, it’s because the crypto industry is in its early stages of valuation, where nobody is sure what to pay for anything. But there are long-term lessons we can learn from this time in history.

如果这听起来很熟悉，那是因为加密行业正处于估值的早期阶段，没有人知道要为任何东西付出什么代价。但我们可以从这段历史中吸取长期的教训。

Survival and Consolidation

生存与巩固

The U.S. didn’t need 100 different auto companies. It needed, like, three.

美国不需要 100 家不同的汽车公司。它需要三个。

Today, the world doesn’t need 100 different blockchain platforms. It needs, like, three. If you’re starting a new blockchain platform today, it’s like starting a tiny auto company in 1908. How are you going to attract developers, to build more dapps, to attract more users?

如今，世界不需要 100 个不同的区块链平台。它需要三个。如果您今天要创建一个新的区块链平台，就像在 1908 年创建一家小型汽车公司一样。您将如何吸引开发人员、构建更多 dapp、吸引更多用户？

The layer-1 battle has already been won: it’s Ethereum. This could change in the future, of course, but understand that blockchains develop huge economies of scale that become self-reinforcing feedback loops: more developers, more dapps, more users.

Layer-1 之战已经胜利：它是以太坊。当然，这种情况将来可能会改变，但要明白区块链会发展出巨大的规模经济，成为自我强化的反馈循环：更多的开发人员、更多的 dapp、更多的用户。

The principle is that over time, technology industries tend to consolidate among a few large companies. This certainly happened with automobiles, and it’s our investing principle with crypto (see our Guide to Sector Investing for more).

原则是，随着时间的推移，科技行业往往会在少数大公司之间进行整合。这肯定发生在汽车领域，这是我们对加密货币的投资原则（有关更多信息，请参阅我们的行业投资指南）。

This is due to two things: survival (smaller companies are eventually crushed by the big ones), and consolidation (smaller companies are gobbled up by the big ones).

这是由于两件事：生存（小公司最终被大公司压垮）和整合（小公司被大公司吞并）。

For investors, the principle is pretty simple: invest in the crypto companies that are clearly leading their category, and that seem to have a sustainable competitive advantage (as Ford did with its assembly lines and Model T economies of scale).

对于投资者来说，原则非常简单：投资那些明显领先其类别、并且似乎具有可持续竞争优势的加密货币公司（就像福特在其装配线和 T 型车规模经济方面所做的那样）。

Look for: Daily Active Users, Market Capitalization, Transaction Volume, Total Value Locked.

寻找：每日活跃用户、市值、交易量、锁定总价值。

Innovation and Scalability

创新和可扩展性

We all know the stories of reigning tech companies that failed to innovate with the times: Kodak and digital photography, BlackBerry and mobile phones, Yahoo and search.

我们都知道那些未能与时俱进创新的统治科技公司的故事：柯达和数码摄影、黑莓和手机、雅虎和搜索。

But what about the crypto companies that failed to keep up?

但那些未能跟上步伐的加密货币公司呢？

Bitcoin Cash, for example, was a spinoff project that tried to solve the primary problems of bitcoin. BTC is famously slow and expensive; BCH was supposed to be fast and cheap. But Bitcoin Cash didn’t solve these problems quickly enough, and today only a few BCH holders still believe in it.

例如，比特币现金是一个试图解决比特币主要问题的衍生项目。 BTC 是出了名的缓慢且昂贵； BCH 应该是快速且便宜的。但比特币现金并没有足够快地解决这些问题，如今只有少数 BCH 持有者仍然相信它。

Compare this with Ethereum, a good example of a company with an inferior technology (Proof of Work) that successfully pivoted to a better one (Proof of Stake). Ethereum is also slow and expensive to use, but has developed layer-2 scaling solutions that are making it faster and better.

与以太坊相比，以太坊是一家使用较差技术（工作量证明）成功转向更好技术（权益证明）的公司的一个很好的例子。以太坊使用起来也很慢且昂贵，但它开发了第 2 层扩展解决方案，使其更快更好。

Ethereum’s advantage comes from its network of active developers (who meet up regularly IRL around the world), its Ethereum Improvement Proposal process (which allows structured and community-driven innovation), and the humble leadership of Vitalik Buterin (its spiritual CEO).

以太坊的优势来自于其活跃的开发人员网络（他们定期在世界各地的现实生活中聚会）、以太坊改进提案流程（允许结构化和社区驱动的创新）以及 Vitalik Buterin（其精神首席执行官）的谦逊领导。

Just as Ford was able to pump out 15 million Model Ts on its assembly lines, then reinvest the profits into further innovations, the best blockchains have a self-reinforcing feedback loop of good ideas and good execution, at scale. Invest in crypto companies that can innovate and scale.

正如福特能够在其装配线上生产 1500 万辆 T 型汽车，然后将利润再投资于进一步的创新一样，最好的区块链也有一个自我强化的良好想法和大规模执行的反馈循环。投资能够创新和扩展的加密货币公司。

Look for: Developer Activity, EIP Improvements/Proposals, New Features/Upgrades, Transactions Per Second, Gas Fees/

寻找：开发者活动、EIP 改进/提案、新功能/升级、每秒交易量、Gas 费用/