Circle Internet Group即將在首次公開募股中再次拍攝

USD Coin的發行人是一個數字代幣，與美元的價值掛鉤，在削減空白檢查後即將上市

Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USD Coin, is preparing for a second attempt at initial public offering as it seeks to capitalize on the burgeoning cryptocurrency industry. The company, which is a key player in the rapidly expanding realm of stablecoins, is nearing a listing after cancelling a blank-check merger last year.

USD Coin的發行人Circle Internet Group正在準備第二次嘗試首次公開募股，因為它試圖利用新興的加密貨幣行業。該公司是迅速擴展的Stablecoins領域中的關鍵參與者，在去年取消了空白的合併合併後即將接近上市。

As Congress edges closer to enacting legislation to regulate these digital assets, the timing appears optimal. Economists at Citi estimate that stablecoins, which are pegged to the U.S. dollar and serve as a bridge between crypto and regular money, might reach $1.6 trillion in value by 2030. These coins are also envisioned as a means of sending cash around the globe and an alternative to volatile local currencies.

隨著國會更加接近制定法規以規範這些數字資產，時機似乎是最佳的。花旗的經濟學家估計，與美元掛鉤並充當加密貨幣和常規貨幣之間的橋樑的穩定者可能到2030年的價值達到1.6萬億美元。這些硬幣還被設想為在全球範圍內寄現金以及揮發性貨幣的替代品。

The importance of disclosing the assets backing the coins and ensuring their liquidity to guarantee convertibility into dollars has been highlighted by researchers at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. This aspect is crucial for gaining user acceptance. In this regard, Circle's focus on transparent accounting and its partnership with Mastercard, which will offer USDC to its users for payments, are noteworthy. However, newer entrants like Circle will likely take time to build the same level of trust as Visa and Mastercard, which have been operating for decades.

斯坦福大學商學院的研究人員強調了披露支持硬幣並確保其流動性以確保兌換美元的流動性的重要性。這方面對於獲得用戶接受至關重要。在這方面，Circle對透明會計的關注及其與萬事達卡的合作關係（將向其用戶提供付款，這是值得注意的。但是，像Circle這樣的新進入者可能需要花費一些時間來建立與數十年來運行的Visa和MasterCard相同的信任水平。

Currently, USDC and Tether account for nearly all stablecoin transactions, according to Visa. Among the major cryptocurrency payment processors, Circle, headed by Jeremy Allaire, claims a greater share of transactions than Coinbase Global, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

根據Visa的數據，目前，USDC和Tether幾乎所有Stablecoin交易均考慮。根據波士頓聯邦儲備銀行的一份報告，在由傑里米·阿萊爾（Jeremy Allaire）領導的主要加密貨幣支付處理器中，圈子比Coinbase Global佔據了更大的交易份額。

Despite the promising narrative, Circle's revenue model and performance might not quite align with the company's optimistic outlook.

儘管有很有希望的敘述，但Circle的收入模型和績效可能與公司的樂觀前景不符。

The company's primary revenue stream, accounting for 96% of the total, is interest income earned on the reserves backing USDC. This revenue soared by 88% year-over-year to $1.4 billion in 2024 as the rate of return on its reserve assets reached as high as 5.19%. In contrast, at the beginning of 2022, the rate of return on these assets was a mere 0.14%. This substantial increase can be attributed to the rapid rise in the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate over the past year and a half, which in turn led to a significant increase in yields on U.S. Treasury bills, the preferred reserve asset for major stablecoin issuers. However, this growth has slowed, with revenue rising by only 16% in 2024 as Treasury yields stabilized following the Fed's rate cuts.

該公司的主要收入來源佔總數的96％，是支持USDC的儲備金中獲得的利息收入。隨著儲備金的回報率高達5.19％，該收入同比增長88％至14億美元。相反，在2022年初，這些資產的回報率僅為0.14％。這一大幅增長可以歸因於過去一​​年半的美聯儲基准率迅速上升，這反過來又導致了美國國庫賬單的收益率顯著增加，這是主要的Stablecoin發行人的首選儲備金。但是，這種增長速度放緩，2024年，由於美聯儲降低稅率穩定的收益穩定，收入僅增長了16％。

This reliance on a single revenue source might leave Circle's earnings perilously hostage to fortune. To diversify its revenue streams, Circle could aim to get more institutions like Visa to accept USDC for remittances or business payments. Despite its rapid growth, Circle pays a hefty price for it, with some 54% of its 2024 revenue going to partner Coinbase for distributing its coin. This partnership, which began in 2020, has been crucial for USDC's adoption among crypto traders.

對單一收入來源的這種依賴可能會使Circle的收入危險為人質。為了使其收入流多樣化，Circle可能旨在獲得更多的機構，以接受USDC以進行匯款或商業付款。儘管增長了迅速的增長，但Circle還是為此付出了高昂的代價，其2024年收入中約有54％用於合作Coinbase分發硬幣。這種合作夥伴關係始於2020年，這對於USDC在加密貨幣交易者中的採用至關重要。

In comparison, Visa and Mastercard, which boast a broader footprint and an established brand, reported EBITDA margins roughly quadruple Circle's 17% last year. Nevertheless, if we consider Mastercard's valuation multiple of 30 times, which is typical for large-cap equities, and apply it to Circle's 2024 EBITDA of $284 million, we arrive at a valuation of $8.5 billion. This broader perspective aligns with the narrative Circle highlights in its filings.

相比之下，擁有更廣泛的足跡和既定品牌的Visa和Mastercard報告說，去年EBITDA Margins大約是四倍的圈子的17％。但是，如果我們考慮萬事達卡的估值次數為30次，這對於大型股票來說是典型的，並將其應用於Circle的2024 EBITDA 2.84億美元，我們的估值為85億美元。這種更廣泛的觀點與敘事圈的歸檔中的介紹相吻合。

However, given the company's narrow revenue base, present reality would seem to demand a steeper discount. According to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter, crypto firm Ripple offered to acquire Circle for between $4 billion and $5 billion. The company says it isn't for sale.

但是，鑑於公司的收入基礎狹窄，當前的現實似乎要求更高的折扣。據引用熟悉此事的人們的彭博社的說法，加密公司Ripple提出以40億至50億美元的價格收購Circle。該公司表示，它不出售。

An exit to a strategic buyer could help to mitigate the steep cost of distribution. As institutions like Visa and Mastercard enter the cryptocurrency space, they might prefer to acquire an established stablecoin company like Circle or Tether, which is also a major issuer. This move would allow them to quickly integrate into the crypto ecosystem and capitalize on the growing demand for digital assets.

戰略買家的出口可以幫助減輕分銷的巨大成本。隨著簽證和萬事達卡等機構進入加密貨幣領域，他們可能更喜歡收購一家既定的circle或tether等固定的Stablecoin公司，這也是主要的發行人。此舉將使他們能夠快速整合到加密生態系統中，並利用對數字資產的不斷增長的需求。

Moreover, considering that both Visa and Mastercard are currently valued at multiples of 40 times their 2024 earnings, acquiring Circle at a lower multiple would be more appealing.

此外，考慮到目前簽證和萬事達卡的價值均為其2024年收益的40倍，以較低的倍數收購圓圈將更具吸引力。

With institutions like payment provider Stripe acquiring stablecoin platform Bridge in February and legislators advancing a bill to regulate stablecoins, the momentum and regulatory acceptance are building.

隨著諸如付款提供商條紋等機構在2月收購Stablecoin平台橋樑，立法者推進了一項規範穩定的法案，勢頭和法規接受是建立的。

As this momentum continues, Circle will undoubtedly prove valuable, especially as it pivots towards offering a broader range of services like cross-border payments and integration with institutions like Visa and Mastercard. However, in the big picture, it could be even more valuable as part of a bigger platform.

隨著這一勢頭的繼續，Circle無疑將被證明是有價值的，尤其是在提供更廣泛的服務等跨境支付以及與Visa和MasterCard等機構的集成之類的更廣泛的服務時。但是，在大局中，作為更大平台的一部分，它可能更有價值。