Circle Internet Group即将在首次公开募股中再次拍摄

USD Coin的发行人是一个数字代币，与美元的价值挂钩，在削减空白检查后即将上市

Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USD Coin, is preparing for a second attempt at initial public offering as it seeks to capitalize on the burgeoning cryptocurrency industry. The company, which is a key player in the rapidly expanding realm of stablecoins, is nearing a listing after cancelling a blank-check merger last year.

USD Coin的发行人Circle Internet Group正在准备第二次尝试首次公开募股，因为它试图利用新兴的加密货币行业。该公司是迅速扩展的Stablecoins领域中的关键参与者，在去年取消了空白的合并合并后即将接近上市。

As Congress edges closer to enacting legislation to regulate these digital assets, the timing appears optimal. Economists at Citi estimate that stablecoins, which are pegged to the U.S. dollar and serve as a bridge between crypto and regular money, might reach $1.6 trillion in value by 2030. These coins are also envisioned as a means of sending cash around the globe and an alternative to volatile local currencies.

随着国会更加接近制定法规以规范这些数字资产，时机似乎是最佳的。花旗的经济学家估计，与美元挂钩并充当加密货币和常规货币之间的桥梁的稳定者可能到2030年的价值达到1.6万亿美元。这些硬币还被设想为在全球范围内寄现金以及挥发性货币的替代品。

The importance of disclosing the assets backing the coins and ensuring their liquidity to guarantee convertibility into dollars has been highlighted by researchers at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. This aspect is crucial for gaining user acceptance. In this regard, Circle's focus on transparent accounting and its partnership with Mastercard, which will offer USDC to its users for payments, are noteworthy. However, newer entrants like Circle will likely take time to build the same level of trust as Visa and Mastercard, which have been operating for decades.

斯坦福大学商学院的研究人员强调了披露支持硬币并确保其流动性以确保兑换美元的流动性的重要性。这方面对于获得用户接受至关重要。在这方面，Circle对透明会计的关注及其与万事达卡的合作关系（将向其用户提供付款，这是值得注意的。但是，像Circle这样的新进入者可能需要花费一些时间来建立与数十年来运行的Visa和MasterCard相同的信任水平。

Currently, USDC and Tether account for nearly all stablecoin transactions, according to Visa. Among the major cryptocurrency payment processors, Circle, headed by Jeremy Allaire, claims a greater share of transactions than Coinbase Global, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

根据Visa的数据，目前，USDC和Tether几乎所有Stablecoin交易均考虑。根据波士顿联邦储备银行的一份报告，在由杰里米·阿莱尔（Jeremy Allaire）领导的主要加密货币支付处理器中，圈子比Coinbase Global占据了更大的交易份额。

Despite the promising narrative, Circle's revenue model and performance might not quite align with the company's optimistic outlook.

尽管有很有希望的叙述，但Circle的收入模型和绩效可能与公司的乐观前景不符。

The company's primary revenue stream, accounting for 96% of the total, is interest income earned on the reserves backing USDC. This revenue soared by 88% year-over-year to $1.4 billion in 2024 as the rate of return on its reserve assets reached as high as 5.19%. In contrast, at the beginning of 2022, the rate of return on these assets was a mere 0.14%. This substantial increase can be attributed to the rapid rise in the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate over the past year and a half, which in turn led to a significant increase in yields on U.S. Treasury bills, the preferred reserve asset for major stablecoin issuers. However, this growth has slowed, with revenue rising by only 16% in 2024 as Treasury yields stabilized following the Fed's rate cuts.

该公司的主要收入来源占总数的96％，是支持USDC的储备金中获得的利息收入。随着储备金的回报率高达5.19％，该收入同比增长88％至14亿美元。相反，在2022年初，这些资产的回报率仅为0.14％。这一大幅增长可以归因于过去一​​年半的美联储基准率迅速上升，这反过来又导致了美国国库账单的收益率显着增加，这是主要的Stablecoin发行人的首选储备金。但是，这种增长速度放缓，2024年，由于美联储降低税率稳定的收益稳定，收入仅增长了16％。

This reliance on a single revenue source might leave Circle's earnings perilously hostage to fortune. To diversify its revenue streams, Circle could aim to get more institutions like Visa to accept USDC for remittances or business payments. Despite its rapid growth, Circle pays a hefty price for it, with some 54% of its 2024 revenue going to partner Coinbase for distributing its coin. This partnership, which began in 2020, has been crucial for USDC's adoption among crypto traders.

对单一收入来源的这种依赖可能会使Circle的收入危险为人质。为了使其收入流多样化，Circle可能旨在获得更多的机构，以接受USDC以进行汇款或商业付款。尽管增长了迅速的增长，但Circle还是为此付出了高昂的代价，其2024年收入中约有54％用于合作Coinbase分发硬币。这种合作伙伴关系始于2020年，这对于USDC在加密货币交易者中的采用至关重要。

In comparison, Visa and Mastercard, which boast a broader footprint and an established brand, reported EBITDA margins roughly quadruple Circle's 17% last year. Nevertheless, if we consider Mastercard's valuation multiple of 30 times, which is typical for large-cap equities, and apply it to Circle's 2024 EBITDA of $284 million, we arrive at a valuation of $8.5 billion. This broader perspective aligns with the narrative Circle highlights in its filings.

相比之下，拥有更广泛的足迹和既定品牌的Visa和Mastercard报告说，去年EBITDA Margins大约是四倍的圈子的17％。但是，如果我们考虑万事达卡的估值次数为30次，这对于大型股票来说是典型的，并将其应用于Circle的2024 EBITDA 2.84亿美元，我们的估值为85亿美元。这种更广泛的观点与叙事圈的归档中的介绍相吻合。

However, given the company's narrow revenue base, present reality would seem to demand a steeper discount. According to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter, crypto firm Ripple offered to acquire Circle for between $4 billion and $5 billion. The company says it isn't for sale.

但是，鉴于公司的收入基础狭窄，当前的现实似乎要求更高的折扣。据引用熟悉此事的人们的彭博社的说法，加密公司Ripple提出以40亿至50亿美元的价格收购Circle。该公司表示，它不出售。

An exit to a strategic buyer could help to mitigate the steep cost of distribution. As institutions like Visa and Mastercard enter the cryptocurrency space, they might prefer to acquire an established stablecoin company like Circle or Tether, which is also a major issuer. This move would allow them to quickly integrate into the crypto ecosystem and capitalize on the growing demand for digital assets.

战略买家的出口可以帮助减轻分销的巨大成本。随着签证和万事达卡等机构进入加密货币领域，他们可能更喜欢收购一家既定的circle或tether等固定的Stablecoin公司，这也是主要的发行人。此举将使他们能够快速整合到加密生态系统中，并利用对数字资产的不断增长的需求。

Moreover, considering that both Visa and Mastercard are currently valued at multiples of 40 times their 2024 earnings, acquiring Circle at a lower multiple would be more appealing.

此外，考虑到目前签证和万事达卡的价值均为其2024年收益的40倍，以较低的倍数收购圆圈将更具吸引力。

With institutions like payment provider Stripe acquiring stablecoin platform Bridge in February and legislators advancing a bill to regulate stablecoins, the momentum and regulatory acceptance are building.

随着诸如付款提供商条纹等机构在2月收购Stablecoin平台桥梁，立法者推进了一项规范稳定的法案，势头和法规接受是建立的。

As this momentum continues, Circle will undoubtedly prove valuable, especially as it pivots towards offering a broader range of services like cross-border payments and integration with institutions like Visa and Mastercard. However, in the big picture, it could be even more valuable as part of a bigger platform.

随着这一势头的继续，Circle无疑将被证明是有价值的，尤其是在提供更广泛的服务等跨境支付以及与Visa和MasterCard等机构的集成之类的更广泛的服务时。但是，在大局中，作为更大平台的一部分，它可能更有价值。