為什麼便宜還不夠：我們還沒有過渡到可再生能源的真正原因

大多數經濟學家和政策制定者認為，清潔能源過渡是一個成本問題。他們採取了一種簡化的看法，即通過降低清潔能源的成本，可再生能源將緩慢而肯定地超過化石燃料並驅動自然過渡。

It’s clear to many people that the world urgently needs to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and embrace cleaner, renewable energy sources, and governments have recognized this with their pledges to achieve net-zero greenhouse emissions in the not-too-distant future. But it’s not clear if those governments will be able to make good on those promises while relying on existing economic models.

對於許多人來說，清楚的是，世界迫切需要減少對化石燃料的依賴，並接受清潔工，可再生能源，政府已經認識到這一點，以實現在不太遙不可及的未來的淨零溫室排放。但是目前尚不清楚這些政府在依靠現有經濟模式的同時是否能夠對這些承諾做出良好的態度。

Most economists and policymakers believe the clean energy transition is a question of cost. They take a simplified view that by bringing down the costs of cleaner energy sources, renewables will slowly but surely surpass fossil fuels and drive a natural transition. This belief has led to a concerted effort by both governments and industry to reduce the costs of clean energy, and solar and wind power in particular has become much more affordable over the last few decades. That’s especially true in China, where the government has provided subsidies to scale up green industries and bring down the “levelized cost of energy”, or LCOE. This metric shows that clean energy sources were more affordable than fossil fuels, even before events such as the Ukraine conflict sent the cost of oil and gas soaring.

大多數經濟學家和政策制定者認為，清潔能源過渡是一個成本問題。他們採取了一種簡化的看法，即通過降低清潔能源的成本，可再生能源將緩慢而肯定地超過化石燃料並驅動自然過渡。這種信念導致政府和行業都努力降低清潔能源的成本，而在過去的幾十年中，太陽能和風能尤其變得更加負擔得起。在中國尤其如此，政府提供了擴大綠色行業並降低“能源水平的成本”或LCOE的補貼。該度量標準表明，即使在烏克蘭衝突等事件發出石油和天然氣的成本之前，清潔能源比化石燃料更實惠。

But even with clean energy now being cheaper than fossil fuels, we haven’t seen the hoped-for global transition to renewable energy sources. In fact, clean energy is still only used as a supplement to fossil fuels, and governments in both developed and developing nations continue to ramp up the production of fossil fuels and seek out new reserves.

但是，即使現在清潔能源比化石燃料便宜，我們也沒有看到全球向可再生能源的過渡。實際上，清潔能源仍然只用作化石燃料的補充劑，而發達國家和發展中國家的政府都在不斷增加化石燃料的生產並尋求新的儲量。

Some blame the rise of politicians such as Donald Trump in the U.S, who has long denied the impact of climate change, for the lack of progress in the clean energy transition. But the blame can’t just be placed on these politicians, for the real reasons are more complex, rooted in the economics of clean energy. According to Brett Christophers, the author of The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism Won’t Save the Planet, one of the problems is that, while renewable energy may be cheaper, it’s not as profitable as fossil fuels. Moreover, the nature of electricity demand means it’s not suitable for market forces to govern the price of renewable energy, resulting in suboptimal outcomes for investors in energy infrastructure.

一些人歸咎於唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）等政客的興起，他長期以來一直否認了氣候變化的影響，因為他們缺乏清潔能源過渡的進展。但是，由於真正的原因，責備不能僅僅歸咎於這些政客，這是更複雜的，它源於清潔能源的經濟學。據布雷特·克里斯托弗斯（Brett Christophers）說，價格的作者是錯誤的：為什麼資本主義不會拯救地球，但問題之一是，儘管可再生能源可能更便宜，但它不如化石燃料那麼有利可圖。此外，電力需求的性質意味著不適合市場​​力量管理可再生能源的價格，從而為能源基礎設施的投資者帶來了次優的結果。

Why Cheap Isn’t Enough

為什麼便宜還不夠

The unique characteristics of renewable energy create some big problems for the transition to clean energy. Nature is an unpredictable beast, and so the supply of wind and solar power is intermittent. Sometimes the sun shines, sometimes it doesn’t, leading to fluctuations in energy output and volatile prices. Moreover, government subsidies for green energy sources often result in overcapacity during periods of lower demand. Yet the withdrawal of subsidies disincentivizes investment in the sector.

可再生能源的獨特特徵為過渡到清潔能源帶來了一些大問題。大自然是一種不可預測的野獸，因此風和太陽能的供應是間歇性的。有時陽光照耀，有時不會，導致能源輸出和波動價格的波動。此外，政府對綠色能源的補貼通常會導致需求較低的時期產能過剩。然而，撤銷補貼卻不願對該行業的投資。

As countries like the U.K. and Germany ramp up their consumption of renewable energy, their supply becomes more unpredictable, which increases the reliance on fossil fuels for those times when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind isn’t blowing.

隨著英國和德國等國家不斷增加對可再生能源的消費，它們的供應變得更加不可預測，這增加了那些太陽沒有閃耀而風吹來的時代，這增加了對化石燃料的依賴。

To get past fossil fuels, the clean energy sector needs to find a reliable way to store the excess power that’s generated when the sun shines brightly or when the wind blows a gale, so it can be used at times when the supply is inadequate. We do this primarily with pumped-storage hydro, but this method is only suitable for places with sufficient water sources and the right topography. There’s also battery storage, but the costs of these remain extremely prohibitive. According to research by MIT, the price of battery storage would need to come down by 90% for renewable energy sources to replace fossil fuels, and that’s unlikely to happen any time soon.

為了越過化石燃料，清潔能源部門需要找到一種可靠的方法來存儲陽光明媚或風吹氣時產生的多餘功率，因此有時可以在供應不足時使用它。我們主要使用泵送水電進行操作，但是此方法僅適用於有足夠的水源和正確地形的地方。也有電池存儲，但是這些成本仍然極為令人難以置信。根據麻省理工學院的研究，可再生能源的電池存儲價格需要下降90％，以取代化石燃料，而且這種情況不太可能很快發生。

The intermittent supply of renewables makes clean energy projects less attractive for investors, which means it becomes harder to secure funding for these initiatives, further holding back the transition away from fossil fuels. We’ve seen this with the Glasgow Alliance for Net Zero, which was launched in April 2021 at COP26 amid great fanfare, promising to remove barriers to investment in the global transition. But already, the six largest U.S. banks have all withdrawn from the initiative, seriously undermining its prospects.

間歇性的可再生能源供應使清潔能源項目對投資者的吸引力較低，這意味著為這些計劃獲得資金變得更加困難，進一步阻止了從化石燃料的過渡。我們已經看到了格拉斯哥聯盟（Glasgow Alliance for Net Zero）的淨零聯盟，該聯盟於2021年4月在Cop26發起，但有望消除全球過渡投資的障礙。但是，美國六家銀行已經從該倡議中撤回，嚴重破壞了其前景。

Unless clean energy projects can attract enough funding, the world is going to be stuck with fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, but they remain unattractive for traditional investors.

除非清潔能源項目能夠吸引足夠的資金，否則在可預見的將來，世界將被化石燃料所困擾，但對於傳統投資者來說，它們仍然沒有吸引力。

Promises of taking action on climate change and achieving net-zero have become all the rage among global corporations, but the reality is that most continue to prioritize profitability above all else. If large-scale clean energy projects are going to find the financial backing they need to be successful, they need to show that not only are they economically viable, but also more profitable than traditional energy sources. Or if not, then they’re going to have to attract a different class of investors.

對氣候變化和實現零零的承諾已成為全球公司的風險，但現實是，大多數人繼續將盈利能力優先考慮到所有方面。如果大規模的清潔能源項目將找到成功的財務支持，他們需要表明它們不僅在經濟上可行，而且比傳統能源更有利可圖。或者，如果沒有，那麼他們將不得不吸引其他類別的投資者。

Decentralizing Clean Energy Funding

分散的清潔能源資金

Surprisingly, the latter option might just be a possibility. While some investors do care about the environment, they care even more about their money, which is why they’ll always invest in the biggest opportunities. And in the energy sector, that

令人驚訝的是，後一種選項可能只是可能性。儘管有些投資者確實關心環境，但他們更關心自己的錢，這就是為什麼他們總是會投資最大的機會的原因。在能源領域，